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How to move forward after the "three changes" in the housing market in the Year of the Ox: Don’t buy after death?

  2008 is a changing year for China real estate market. The role of the national macro-control policy shows that the transaction volume of commercial housing, which used to be booming in supply and demand, has dropped sharply, and the rising house prices are beginning to decline. The capital chain of real estate developers is tight, buyers are in a state of collective wait and see, and the real estate market is booming.


  When the irrational fanaticism of "real estate speculation by the whole people" gradually weakens, people suddenly find that the changes in the housing market and the rise and fall of housing prices are not as simple as the figures themselves, but involve social and economic development and people’s well-being. As one of the pillar industries closely related to national life, how will China real estate industry at the crossroads balance the two propositions of "promoting growth" and "protecting people’s livelihood" in 2009?


  The change of the market: the quantity falls and the price lags behind, and the "turning point" of the property market comes.


  At the end of 2007, Wang Shi, the head of Vanke, put forward the "turning point" theory when the property market in China was still booming, which was refuted by many people inside and outside the industry. However, just one year later, even the most optimistic people have to admit that the real estate market in China is facing a severe situation.


  According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2008, the national commercial housing sales area was 490 million square meters, down 18.3% year-on-year. Among them, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 18.8%. At the same time, the monthly year-on-year increase of house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide reached an all-time high of 11.3% in January 2008, and the increase rate accelerated and decreased to 0.2% in November 2008. The house prices in index cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing declined to varying degrees.


  In Shenzhen, where house prices rose all the way in 2007, the average price of commercial housing fell from 17,400 yuan in October 2007 to 11,800 yuan in September 2008, and even fell below the 10,000-yuan mark during the National Day. In the first nine months of 2008, the sales area of new commercial housing in Shenzhen was 2,599,400 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 47.81%.


  In Shanghai, with Vanke taking the lead in price reduction, many real estate giants followed suit, and house prices began to turn around. In August 2008, the second-hand housing price index in Shanghai changed from rising to falling for the first time. In September, the price of commercial housing in Shanghai showed obvious signs of decline. Beijing can’t be immune. In September 2008, house prices in Beijing dropped by 0.2% month-on-month, which is the first time that house prices in Beijing have declined since 2005. By November, the increase of housing sales price in Beijing dropped by 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline rate exceeded 2 percentage points for the first time.


  The arrival of the "cold winter" in the property market has made the developers who used to be "monolithic" in price "flexible". Many properties have begun to be discounted, buying houses to send property, sending home appliances and even sending cars, and various promotional methods have appeared in BLACKPINK; Property buyers who have always been in a weak position have the confidence to wait and see.


  Policy change: from "pressure" to "promotion" to ensure healthy development


  In 2008, the China real estate market, which was at the turning point, began to feel the pressure. The capital chain of real estate developers began to be tight, and the phenomenon of bottom price transaction, auction and even "land withdrawal" began to appear in various places. The sharp cooling of the land market has led to a sharp drop in the land transfer income of local governments. More importantly, as one of the pillar industries, the prosperity of the real estate industry is closely related to the development of local economy.


  In this context, some local governments have launched measures aimed at "activating" the real estate market. In August 2008, the Shenyang Municipal Government announced a series of plans to warm up the market, and Xi ‘an, Xiamen, Changsha, Chengdu and other places also successively introduced preferential measures for buying houses, including tax exemption and tax reduction, and housing subsidies, hoping to stimulate consumption in the real estate market.


  After a wave of bottom-up actions to stimulate the recovery of the real estate market, China’s real estate regulation and control policies ushered in an "inflection point" from "suppression" to "promotion" in October 2008. On the 17th of that month, the executive meeting of the State Council made arrangements for the economic work in the fourth quarter. Besides "increasing the scale of affordable housing construction", it first proposed "reducing the taxes and fees for housing transactions and supporting residents to buy houses". In December, a series of preferential measures were introduced intensively. The executive meeting of the State Council held on December 17th put forward policy measures such as relaxing the second home loan, reducing business tax and increasing the credit of housing enterprises. On the 21st, the General Office of the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market", proposing a number of policies such as supporting housing enterprises to reduce prices and promote sales; On the evening of the 22nd, the central bank announced a rate cut for the fifth time that year, and at the same time lowered the deposit reserve ratio. Among the five key tasks in 2009 assigned by the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2008, two of them are related to real estate, "to combine the desire of residents to improve their living conditions reasonably with the role of real estate as a pillar industry"; "Increase the supply of affordable housing, reduce the burden of residents’ reasonable purchase of self-occupied ordinary commodity housing, and give play to the positive role of real estate in expanding domestic demand".


  In this context, 2009 will be a crucial year to accelerate the construction of affordable housing. Qi Ji, deputy director of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, believes that increasing the supply of affordable housing will make many low-income groups no longer be mixed with the supply targets of the commercial housing market, which is conducive to stabilizing the price of the commercial housing market. Relevant experts believe that the policy orientation of combining "satisfying residents’ desire to improve their living conditions reasonably" with "giving full play to the role of the pillar industry of real estate" and emphasizing "protecting people’s livelihood" at the same time of "promoting growth" will enable China’s real estate market to walk on two legs, and its future development will be more stable and standardized.


  Change of demand: "De-foaming" can stimulate the return of "rigid demand" in the market.


  A fact that is more comforting than various favorable and warm-up policies is that the desire and demand of China people to improve their housing conditions still exist rigidly. The sales of some well-known large-scale and some small-sized properties with large discounts have become a proof of the "rigid demand" for residents to improve their housing conditions.


  However, there are signs that a large number of property buyers are still on the sidelines. The 2009 Blue Book of Economy published by China Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that in 2009, it is still difficult for real estate demanders to get out of the wait-and-see situation in a short period of time. Real estate speculators will withdraw from the market to varying degrees due to the decline in speculative ability, and the demand for self-occupation of first-time home buyers will be more cautious. Real housing demanders who remain in the market will put forward higher requirements for real estate products.


  "The reason why ordinary people will wait and see is because the current housing prices are still far higher than the expectations of ordinary people." Wang Shengxue, president of Shaanxi Real Estate Research Association, believes that the current situation shows that the era of real estate profiteering is gone forever. If developers want to tide over the difficulties, they must reasonably control profit margins and win market recognition by "defoaming" housing prices.


  However, although the housing market has turned around and walked away, an interest pattern that has not been shaken so far is that the cost of land acquisition and various "public relations" costs still account for 50% or even higher of the price composition of commercial housing. "We can cut profits, but gray costs cannot be compressed." At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, a real estate agent explained why he was still carrying the price down.


  Real estate developers will die, and buyers will certainly die. The once-sung "Don’t sell after death" sound is still ringing in the stock market, and the clanging sound of "Don’t buy after death" seems to ring again in the property market. Relevant persons pointed out that when the "dream of living in peace" of thousands of households still has to be blended with the "land finance" of local governments in the housing market, the "blowout" of housing demand in the market will probably become a long wait. (Reporter Shi Zhiyong)

Editor: Gao Song

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High temperature | The body sensation in the south is over 60℃, and the "sauna mode" is uninterrupted for 24 hours.

On July 15th, at Huzhou West Railway Station, Huzhou City, Zhejiang Province, the shunting crew washed their faces with water. Vision china Since July, the high temperature in China has been fierce, Shanghai has tied the record of the highest temperature in a hundred years, many cases of heatstroke have occurred, and fresh food has been cooked naturally. After a short interval of high temperature, a new round of high temperature weather will come back on July 20, which will affect more than 17 provinces and cities such as Zhejiang and Fujian. It will not only affect a wide range, but also have a long standby time. Most areas in the south will carry out high temperature battles until the end of July. Compared with the last high temperature range, the core area of this high temperature is relatively south, and the extreme high temperature weather in southern Zhejiang and Fujian is now broken.
The weather network map of China will start on July 21st, and a large range of high temperature weather will make a comeback. Zhang Juan, a meteorologist of China Weather Network, said that this round of high-temperature weather has the characteristics of wide coverage and strong local intensity, and will sweep across more than 17 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities in China. Until the end of July, there will be a wide range of persistent high-temperature weather above 35℃ in Nanjiang Basin, western Inner Mongolia, Jianghan, Jianghuai, Jiangnan, South China and Chongqing, with the highest temperature in Nanjiang Basin, western Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang and Fujian reaching above 40℃. Intermittent high temperature weather will also appear in southern North China, Huanghuai, Shaanxi and other places.
On July 15th, in Kunming, at noon, the sun was scorching and the outdoor ultraviolet rays were strong, so people who traveled started the sun protection mode one after another. Vision china diagram
On July 20th, in Xiamen, at Haicang Fire Training Base, a firefighter was sweating profusely after a contest of actual combat training. People’s visual map
On July 19th, the staff of Hainan Qionghai Power Supply Bureau of Southern Power Grid in Jiaji Town, qionghai city, Hainan Province, were soaked with sweat after their homework. Vision china map until the end of July, the southern region will maintain a state of high temperature and high humidity, and many places may feel over 60℃, and the "sauna room" will be available 24 hours a day. In hot and humid environment, people are more prone to heatstroke. Severe heatstroke, also known as heatstroke, can cause death. Heat stroke disease is mainly caused by the imbalance of the body’s regulatory function when the human body is exposed to high temperature and high humidity. Heat generation is greater than heat dissipation, which will lead to a rapid increase in the core temperature. In particular, outdoor work in high temperature and high humidity environment and people with weak constitution, such as the elderly and children, are more prone to heat stroke.
On July 20, there were few tourists in Shanghai and Lujiazui, Pudong, and the street citizens hurried under the scorching sun. Vision china diagram
On July 17th, the high temperature continued in Hangzhou, and the Hangzhou Library was packed. On a hot summer day, many citizens choose to come to the library to improve their learning efficiency in a cool environment, to find coolness in the book, and to study in the summer. Vision china diagram
On July 15th, in the overall relocation construction project site of Daoxian Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Yongzhou City, Hunan Province, the builders flushed water to relieve the summer heat during work. Compared with the high temperature process in the first half of July, the core area of this high temperature process will be relatively south, which is related to the south position of the subtropical high. Among them, some areas in southern Zhejiang and Fujian may break through the extreme value. The highest temperature in Ningde on the 23rd can even reach 43℃. Lishui, where there have been cases of heatstroke, will have a 40℃ high temperature N combo from this weekend to early next week.
On July 20th, Hangzhou returned to high temperature. At noon, when the sun was the fiercest, bodybuilders were sunbathing on the outdoor swimming pool platform of Metropark Hotel on Pinghai Road to get a healthy tan. Vision china diagram
On July 16, Qionghai, Hainan, tourists surfed and played in Boao seaside. The day was the first day of the ambush, and many places in China entered the "sauna mode". The highest temperature in Hainan reached about 35 degrees Celsius. Vision china map (this article is from The Paper, please download the "The Paper" APP for more original information).
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"Subsidize" New Deal Implementing New Energy Vehicles in June to Accelerate "Survival of the fittest"

  The subsidy standard for new energy vehicles has once again ushered in a major revision.

  A few days ago, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments issued the Notice on Adjusting and Perfecting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the Notice), which improved the existing subsidy policy for new energy vehicles, including subsidy standards, cruising range and technical requirements. However, the New Deal has set up a transitional period. During the transitional period before June 11th, the licensed new energy passenger cars and buses will be subsidized by 0.7 times of the previous corresponding standards, and the new energy trucks and special vehicles will be subsidized by 0.4 times. The subsidy standard for fuel cell vehicles will remain unchanged.

  Industry analysts pointed out that the new policy strongly supports fuel cell vehicles, encourages the development of high-end passenger cars, and further raises the energy density threshold requirements of pure electric passenger cars, which will accelerate the survival of the fittest of new energy vehicles and will be extremely beneficial to the entire new energy automobile industry.

  Greatly strengthen technical requirements

  Compared with the existing subsidy standards, the biggest change in the Notice is the substantial improvement of technical requirements, that is, cruising range.

  At present, new energy passenger cars are divided into three subsidies according to the driving mileage, 100&le; R<150、150&le; R < 250 and R&ge; 250, the subsidy amount is 20,000 yuan, 36,000 yuan and 44,000 yuan respectively. However, the new standards to be implemented will no longer be so general.

  Among them, the cruising range of 100&le was cancelled; The subsidy for R < 150, that is, the driving range of pure electric passenger cars is less than 150km, will not be subsidized, which will eliminate a number of A00-class cars with low technical content. At the same time, for 150&le; R < 250 is split into two files for subsidy, 150&le; R < 200 subsidy is 15,000 yuan, 200&le; R < 250 subsidy is 24,000 yuan. And the driving range R&ge; The subsidy of 250 is split into three grades, 250&le; The subsidy for R < 300 is 34,000 yuan, 300&le; R < 400 subsidy is 45,000 yuan, R&ge; The subsidy of 400 is 50,000 yuan.

  At the same time, the technical standards have also been greatly strengthened. The driving range of pure electric passenger cars is m&le; 1000kg、1000<m&le; The coefficients of 1600kg and m > 1600 kg are all lowered, and the subsidy requirements for 100 km power consumption are put forward; The fuel consumption limit of plug-in hybrid passenger cars is less than 65%.

  In the field of new energy buses, the subsidy standard has been greatly reduced. Among them, the subsidy for non-fast-charging pure electric buses was reduced from 1800 yuan /kWh to 1200 yuan /kWh, a decrease of 33%; The subsidy for fast-charging pure electric buses is reduced from 3,000 yuan /kWh to 2,100 yuan /kWh, a decrease of 30%; The plug-in hybrid vehicle is lowered to 1,500 yuan /kWh, and the decline is as high as 50%. On the other hand, the energy consumption per unit load (Ekg) is clearly required not to be higher than 0.21 Wh/km kg, and the index is improved by 12.5% at one time.

  In addition, the subsidy standard for new energy trucks and special vehicles is subsidized according to the total storage capacity of power batteries, and the part below 30 (including) kWh is adjusted to 850 yuan /kWh, down by 43.33%; The part of 30 ~ 50 (inclusive) kWh is adjusted to 750 yuan /kWh, with a decrease of 37.5%; The part above 50kWh is adjusted to 650 yuan /kWh, with a decrease of 35%.

  The real "test period" of car companies has arrived.

  "The subsidy for new energy passenger cars should be said to be the core focus of this round of subsidy adjustment. The change in the subsidy standard for a new round of new energy vehicles in 2018 is mainly in the improvement of the cruising range standard of passenger cars and the improvement of energy density. It should be said that it is a good way to promote product upgrading." Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Association, said that this reflected the great support and promotion for product upgrading on the basis of the downward trend of the overall subsidy standard.

  According to the data of the Federation, according to the data of new energy passenger cars in January, according to the new standard, the subsidies for most models are concentrated at the level of 15,000 yuan, accounting for about 60%, while the vehicles with a distance of 200 km to 250 km account for about 10%. Overall, 60% of subsidies are at the lowest level. This also means that there will be greater pressure on product upgrading in the future.

  For example, in the case of GAC New Energy GE3, the subsidy during the transition period is 33,800 yuan, which will be increased to 45,000 yuan after the implementation of the new standards.

  Some analysts pointed out that the promulgation of the Notice means that the new energy automobile industry has gradually entered the post-subsidy era, and the policy is gradually guiding the market to gradually shift from relying solely on financial subsidies to truly realizing market-oriented operation, which will further aggravate polarization and eliminate some enterprises with low technical content.

  However, will the drastic adjustment of technical standards have an impact on the market?

  According to the requirements of the Notice, the new regulations set up a transition period. As of June 11th this year, new energy passenger cars and buses licensed during the transition period will be subsidized by 0.7 times of the corresponding standards, while new energy trucks and special vehicles will be subsidized by 0.4 times. The subsidy standard for fuel cell vehicles will remain unchanged.

  Cui Dongshu pointed out that the phased implementation of subsidies is very good for promoting the industry, which realizes the effective continuity of supply and demand of products sold in the market. With the introduction of this new subsidy policy, the new product design will be gradually put in place in the first half of the year. The implementation of the new subsidy policy in the second half of the year will greatly promote the product upgrading of new energy vehicles and the core competitiveness of enterprises.

  Vigorously cut off "local protection"

  In addition to improving the subsidy standards, the Notice also re-emphasized the need to break local protection and establish a unified market.

  It is clearly pointed out that all localities are not allowed to take any form of local protection measures, including but not limited to setting up local catalogues or filing, restricting the issuance of subsidy funds, repeating the inspection of new energy vehicles, requiring production enterprises to set up factories locally, and requiring vehicle manufacturers to purchase local parts and components. Where local protection acts are identified by relevant departments, the central finance will deduct the funds for charging infrastructure awards accordingly according to the circumstances. All localities should implement support measures such as exemption from restrictions, exemption from purchase restrictions, and issuance of special number plates for new energy vehicles without discrimination for new energy vehicle products listed in the Announcement of Vehicle Manufacturers and Products.

  At present, the filing system has been cancelled in some places one after another. On February 26th, the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission, the Economic and Information Commission, the Finance Bureau, the Urban Management Commission and the Transportation Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Promoting and Applying New Energy Vehicles in Beijing", which clearly cancelled the "small catalogue" of new energy vehicles in Beijing, but plug-in hybrid vehicles still cannot use the new energy minibus index to buy cars.

  At the same time, the "Notice" requires local governments to continuously increase infrastructure construction and improve the use environment of new energy vehicles. From 2018, the local purchase subsidy funds for new energy vehicles will gradually be transferred to support the construction and operation of charging infrastructure and the use and operation of new energy vehicles.

  The analysis pointed out that the release of the Notice is expected to further promote the upgrading of the entire new energy vehicle field, and at the same time optimize and ensure the smooth operation of the market in the first half of this year. It is expected that high-end electric passenger cars will usher in comprehensive and rapid development in the next year.

  ■ Related news

  A new batch of 207 models

  Enter the purchase tax-free catalogue

  A few days ago, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration of Taxation published the Catalogue of New Energy Vehicles Exempted from Vehicle Purchase Tax (the sixteenth batch), which was also the first batch of new energy vehicles exempted from purchase tax in China in 2018. A total of 207 vehicles were shortlisted, including pure electric, plug-in hybrid and biofuel cell vehicles.

  In terms of electric vehicles, a total of 49 pure electric passenger cars were shortlisted, including GAC New Energy, BYD, GAC New Energy, Haima Automobile and Jianghuai Automobile. There are 72 models of pure electric buses, including Beiqi Foton, Jinlong and Dongfeng Motor. There are 64 types of pure electric vehicles, including Dongfeng Motor, BYD, Universiade, and so on.

  In terms of plug-in hybrid power, 14 passenger car models were shortlisted, including GAC Mitsubishi, SAIC, Geely Automobile, etc., including BYD Tang, GAC Mitsubishi Qizhi, Emgrand PHEV and Sonata PHEV, which are popular in the market; In terms of passenger cars, there are 6 finalists.

  Judging from the cruising range of these new energy vehicles, the overall growth continues, especially for pure electric vehicles. The data shows that the average of the 14th batch of pure electric passenger cars in China is 248km, while the 16th batch of catalogues released this year is 256km, with an average of more than 250km. The cruising range of new pure electric vehicles is greatly improved.

  Nanfang Daily reporter Guo Xiaoge

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The fundamentals of the real estate industry have remained unchanged for a long time.

Wang Lixin
On November 10th, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that the risks of real estate finance and local debt were generally controllable.
In my opinion, the current risks related to the real estate industry deserve high attention, but there is no need to be too pessimistic about the development prospects of the industry. In the medium and long term, there is a great demand for improved housing for residents’ families. Chinese-style modernization and new urbanization will bring continuous incremental housing demand, and the reconstruction of villages in megacities under the new model will also bring new opportunities, and the fundamentals supporting the real estate industry to stabilize and improve have not changed.
At the macro level, the policy of stabilizing the economy continues to exert its strength, and residents’ income expectations are improving, which provides strong support for the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. From the GDP growth of 4.9% in the third quarter, it can be seen that China’s economy is recovering well. Although the real estate has not come out of the downturn, the transaction volume of new houses in key first-and second-tier cities has recovered, and the industry is expected to be gradually restored, stabilized and rebounded.
First of all, the real estate policy still has further expectations.Since the end of August, many departments and places in China have intensively introduced policies to moderately optimize and adjust the real estate, and policies such as "recognizing houses without recognizing loans", relaxing purchase restrictions, lowering interest rates, and returning the multi-city land market to "the highest bidder" have been intensively implemented, and their efforts have been significantly enhanced. The continuous use of the policy toolbox "because of the city’s policy" has created conditions for meeting the release of just-needed and improved housing demand, and opened up space for the stabilization of property market transactions in various places.
Judging from the recent statements of the central bank and relevant departments, the idea of relevant financial measures to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in the next stage has been clear. On the one hand, policies such as residents’ housing credit and housing financing still have further expectations, such as reducing residents’ housing purchase costs and increasing housing financing support; On the other hand, the financial supporting policies for the "three major projects" of affordable housing, urban village reconstruction and "flat and emergency" public infrastructure construction are also expected to accelerate, which is expected to play an important role in stabilizing investment in the future, and will also play a positive role in restoring and stabilizing real estate sales.
Secondly, the work of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" has been solidly promoted, and the confidence of the industry has been boosted to some extent.At present, "guaranteed delivery building" is an important event in promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and plays a key role in restoring housing consumption confidence. Since July 2022, when the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference first put forward the task of "guaranteeing the delivery of property", various financial services such as "guaranteeing the delivery of property" special loan and "guaranteeing the delivery of property" loan support plan have followed suit, and relevant departments have also guided commercial banks to provide supporting financing support.
In addition to financial support, local governments and housing enterprises are also paying attention to the reform of the pre-sale system and encouraging the sale of existing homes. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first nine months of this year, the sales area of existing commercial houses nationwide was 130 million square meters, up 21.2% year-on-year, accounting for 17.9% of the total sales area, up 4 percentage points from the end of 2022. Theoretically, the sale of existing homes is the fundamental measure to prevent the unfinished property. Taking some projects in some cities as the pilot of existing home sales can also boost industry confidence and fundamental recovery.
第三,信用风险正在逐步出清,行业基本面逐步改善。进入11月份以来,万科债券出现非理性波动,深圳国资委明确表示支持万科,称其具备足够的安全性。随后,万科、金地于11月9日及10日相继发布赎回及债券兑付公告,市场暂时恢复平静。此外,今年以来,融创中国等出险房企债务重组方案也多顺利通过。
无论是大股东支持,还是化债取得关键进展,大型房企稳住经营基本盘,可助力行业进一步抽丝剥茧地切实改善基本面,从而防范化解房地产领域的金融风险。当然,企业层面也需要逐步向规范化、多元化、轻量化方向转型,以长期视角探寻新发展模式,比如在碳中和、建筑施工、资产管理、养老服务等细分赛道创新商业模式,引领行业升级发展。
树木因相依而生长,星辰因辉映而璀璨。当前房地产行业正在进行重大转型并寻找新的均衡点,希望在各方聚力下,尽快实现从“信心修复”到“行业康复”,步入健康发展新阶段。
图片 | 站酷海洛
制作 | 张文玲
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Shanghai will disclose data to respond to the government’s remarks that 1/2 of housing costs flow to the government.

  During the National "Two Sessions" this year, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce submitted to Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference a speech entitled "Why China’s housing prices remain high-half of the total expenditure on real estate development flows to the government" (hereinafter referred to as "the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce"), which caused great controversy. According to the speech, the survey of "development expenses of real estate enterprises" in nine cities across the country shows that the proportion of the total expenses flowing to the government (that is, land costs+total taxes) is 49.42%. The share of development projects in Shanghai flowing to the government is the highest, reaching 64.5%.


  In this regard, Shanghai Mayor Han was interviewed by reporters during the "two sessions" and questioned that "I don’t know how the data of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce came from, it must be wrong". However, he did not disclose the data he had at the meeting.


  On March 18th, Mayor Han Zheng said at the "Implementation of the TV and telephone conference on strengthening the administration of counties and cities according to law in the State Council" in Shanghai: "This year, the Shanghai municipal government promised that government funds will be further made public." According to Shanghai’s budget reports for several years, Shanghai’s land transfer fees account for a large proportion of government funds.


  China Economic Weekly recently learned from people familiar with the matter that the Shanghai Planning and Land Resources Administration is organizing documents and calculating relevant data, and may "respond" to the data of the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce through "public clarification" soon.


  However, the content that will be "publicly clarified" will probably not include Shanghai real estate tax data. Xu Jun, the news liaison of the finance and taxation department of Shanghai Municipal Government, admitted to China Economic Weekly that the real estate tax situation is not something that should be made public, so he has no obligation to make it public, and has not received any documents from the relevant departments asking the Shanghai tax department to calculate, count and organize the income of real estate developers.


  64.5% of the income flows to the government?


  The speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce has attracted much attention because it involves the sensitive topic of who is the promoter and beneficiary of high housing prices, the government and developers.


  According to the reporter’s understanding, Ren Zhiqiang, vice president of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and chairman of Beijing Huayuan Real Estate Company, who ranked first among mainland real estate developers in 2008 with an annual salary of 7.74 million, was quite active in the dispute.


  On March 11th, he wrote in his blog that the report of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce at the two sessions revealed the composition of China’s real estate development expenses, and made the land and tax revenue, which accounted for most of the housing prices, public, and revealed the important factors of housing price increase. To solve the problem of high and low housing prices, we should start with the government, because "it is difficult to produce cheap bread with high-priced flour."


  According to the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, "Shanghai has the highest share of the total sales revenue of development projects flowing to the government, accounting for 64.5%, and correspondingly, the share of enterprise surplus is the smallest, accounting for only 4.15%".


  This data seems to subvert people’s views on the "profiteering" of real estate developers, but not only the mayor of Han Zheng, but also many officials of the Shanghai Municipal Government expressed disapproval in an interview with China Economic Weekly.


  An official of the Shanghai Municipal Government who asked not to be named told the reporter of China Economic Weekly: "You can take a closer look at the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce. The data and some opinions used are from real estate developers. The speech is completely covered with the cloak of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, protecting the interests of real estate developers themselves. "


  So what is the core data source of such a controversial speech?


  China Economic Weekly learned in the survey that the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce was brewed in two research reports of its subordinate, the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce. In the second half of 2008, the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce visited 62 developers in 9 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, involving 81 real estate projects, and finally formed a cost analysis report. The full name of the report is "Overview of the Basic Situation and Main Conclusions of Real Estate Development Expenses and Sales Income Analysis in China" (hereinafter referred to as "Introduction").


  On February 6th this year, the Introduction of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce was submitted to the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce in the form of the Investigation Report on the Development Expenses of Real Estate Enterprises in China (hereinafter referred to as the Investigation Report), hoping to serve as the speech of the CPPCC National Committee of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce during the two sessions this year. After that, the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce caused an uproar.


  After comparing the above three documents, the reporter of China Economic Weekly found many questions. For example, in the survey of 81 projects of 62 companies in Introduction, the sampling seems unreasonable.


  In Shanghai, Introduction selected 30 projects from 29 companies, 31 projects from 19 companies in Guangzhou, and 7 projects from only one company in Beijing.


  What is even more incredible is that, as a "professional survey" of a national real estate enterprise chamber of commerce, four of the nine cities (Xi ‘an, Suzhou, Chengdu and Shenzhen) only selected one project from one company. Among them, the project in Chengdu is only in the "planning and design stage", while the companies in Suzhou, Xi ‘an and Shenzhen are "small", and their "sparring" nature seems too obvious.


  In addition, the reporter learned that all the statistical data in the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce came from the "REICO Studio", which was jointly funded by the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, Midtown Alliance, Wantong and Huayuan. Some professionals told reporters that the accuracy of the survey data is worthy of scrutiny, because there may be selective sampling problems, which leads to the unfairness of the scientific nature of the survey.


  The secretary and mayor shouted for price reduction.


  Behind the "war of words" is the wrestling between the government and real estate enterprises on the issue of "whether to protect or suppress housing prices".


  "In the past six months, there have been various indications that Shanghai’s real estate policy has turned, and the government’s request for real estate developers to reduce prices has become more and more clear." A senior Shanghai real estate industry insider told China Economic Weekly.


  The reporter noticed that after entering January 2009, Shanghai leaders frequently conveyed such information to the outside world: Shanghai’s housing prices are on the high side, and real estate developers should "follow the trend" and "actively reduce prices".


  During this year’s "two sessions" in Shanghai, Ni Jianda, president of Shanghai Chengkai Group, and Ji Baohong, chairman of Shanghai Wangyuan Real Estate Company, as representatives of Shanghai real estate developers, put forward their opinions to Yu Zhengsheng, secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, and Han Zheng, mayor of Shanghai, respectively, and thought that the Shanghai municipal government should stabilize housing prices and should not build affordable housing and low-rent housing on a large scale.


  For such an idea, on January 19th, Yu Zhengsheng, secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, made it clear: "House prices can’t be high and can’t go up any more." On February 21st, Han Zheng, the mayor of Shanghai, made it more clear: "At present, housing prices in Shanghai are indeed on the high side, and housing prices are generally regulated by the market, but the government should use some policies to guide and promote consumption, and more people will buy houses at lower prices."


  A person from the real estate industry in Shanghai told China Economic Weekly: "According to the secretary and mayor, it is impossible for Shanghai to introduce the policy of tax refund and home purchase. While the secretary and mayor call on real estate enterprises to actively adjust prices, they should also think about the real reasons for the high housing prices. This is the original intention of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce to issue a research report."


  Is there a gray expenditure in the developer’s 30% profit?


  Just as people were "expressing their opinions" on the issue of "data", Cheng Siwei, a famous economist who was the vice chairman of the 9th and 10th the National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC), threw out his views on the current composition of high housing prices. During the "two sessions", he said in an interview with the media that in 2005, he and his doctoral students made a housing price reference model, and then checked three points in Beijing, Shanghai and Fuzhou.


  Cheng Siwei revealed: "As a result of the check, the house price cost, including land price and building materials cost, accounts for 50%, the government’s taxes and fees account for 20%, the developer’s profits account for 30%, and part of the developer’s 30% is gray cost. To put it bluntly, it is the cost of bribery. One is that developers take the initiative to pay bribes, and the other is that powerful government workers ask for bribes. If you don’t give me money, I won’t give you a batch or do it for you. "


  In fact, over the past year or so, among the important corruption cases in Shanghai, there are not a few people involved in real estate. Yin Guoyuan, former deputy director of Shanghai Real Estate Bureau, Kang Huijun, former head of real estate speculation in Shanghai, Wang Miaoxing, former party secretary and chairman of Shanghai New Long March (Group) Co., Ltd., Zhou Xiaodi, a real estate tycoon in Shanghai, suspected of illegally reselling land use rights, Qin Jinlong, former president of Shanghai Zhongxiang Group, suspected of embezzling state-owned assets of 160 million yuan, and Zhang Keming, former deputy head of Putuo District in Shanghai, all seem to reveal the existence of "grey areas" in the real estate industry.


  The reporter noted that although the "gray expenditure" was not mentioned in the Survey Report submitted by the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce to the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, an "unforeseen expense" was seen from the cost analysis in the Overview, which accounted for 3.08% of the total cost.

Editor: Zhang Renhe

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Addicted "aristocratic" sports, a set of ski equipment emptied your wallet.

Beijing Winter Olympics entered the countdown.

After being dormant for three seasons, skiers finally ushered in a grand skiing season.

More exciting than skiers are entrepreneurs related to the ski industry, who predict that the ski industry will usher in golden decade in the post-Winter Olympics era. According to the development plan of ice and snow sports, the total scale of China’s ice and snow industry will reach one trillion yuan in 2025.

However, as the skiing equipment just needed for skiing, it is expensive, which makes many friends who try to enter the circle discouraged and choose to change their hobbies. According to research statistics, ski equipment is indeed the project with the highest gross profit margin in the ski industry chain.

Is the ski equipment that burns money a good nugget market?

Skiing is addictive and burns money.

This is an exciting and challenging ice and snow sport. In the world of white clothes, every skier on the ski resort can fly freely and feel the speed and passion; Also in the ultimate concentration, harvest inner peace.

As a sport that requires high hardware facilities, skiing is quite expensive. Ski resorts, perfect supporting facilities, early teaching and training, personal equipment and convenient transportation all need certain economic conditions as support.

Taking personal equipment as an example, it is calculated according to the price range table of major brands compiled by EqualOcean.A set of primary ski equipment including ski suit, snowboard, ski pole and ski shoes costs between 3,000 and 10,000 yuan; And a skier, a set of top equipment from head to toe is more than 60 thousand yuan.If you are keen on buying joint models and limited models, the price will have to double.

The high unit price supports the profitability of ski equipment. According to data from Mob Research Institute,The gross profit margin of snowboards and ski suits in ski equipment is about 40%-50%.The gross profit margin of helmets and snow goggles can reach 70%;The gross profit margin of ski resort is about 15%, the gross profit margin of ski training is 30%-35%, and the gross profit margin of ski resort construction equipment is between 25%-35%.

Ski equipment is sold to individuals and to ski resorts respectively, and the gross profit margin is different. The profitability of the C-end far exceeds that of the B-end. According to the data of Toubao Research Institute, the gross profit margin of imported skis sold to ski resorts is 20%-25%, and the gross profit margin of individual sales can reach 50%. The gross profit margin of selling snow clothes, helmets and snow goggles to the snow field is about 30%-40%, and that of selling to individuals is 70%-80%.

The "aristocratic" movement lives up to its reputation. According to data from Mob Research Institute,At present, skiers in China are mainly male middle-and high-income groups in first-and second-tier cities, with the age of 25-34 and the monthly income of over 10K.

Even if you have enough economic strength, you can’t ski at will. Skiing is seasonal and restricted by the venue. Even in winter, you can find venues around your home or city when you want to ski. Sometimes you need to take a car, drive by car or even fly to other cities and countries.

Limited by economic conditions, venues and seasons, the number of skiers in China is less, and most of them are skiers. According to the data of White Paper on Ski Industry in China,In 2019, the number of skiers in China was 20.9 million, of which 77.4% experienced skiers, and the average number of skiers per year was no more than two.

A large number of people who only skate once or twice a year prefer to rent equipment in the snow field, and it is difficult to form purchasing power. Therefore, although the unit price of ski equipment is high, it is a typical niche market.

The Research Report on the Development of Ice and Snow Industry in China shows that in 2020, the total scale of China’s ice and snow industry has reached 600 billion yuan. According to the data of Zhiyan Consulting, under the huge ice and snow market scale, the ski market in China will be about 83.56 billion yuan in 2020, and it will be subdivided into the ski equipment market with a scale of about 12.69 billion yuan.

With the approach of the Winter Olympics, there have been several "skiing craze" in China in recent years.

Actually, skiing in China started late, and the third Asian Winter Games was held in 1996, which was the beginning of skiing in China. In France, there were 45,000 skiers in 1950; In Japan, the skiing craze rose in the 1960s. In 1980, nearly 30% of Japanese men aged 20-24 participated in skiing.

Taking the Winter Olympics as an opportunity, many enterprises have begun to lay out the ice and snow industry in China in recent years. Equipment with strong profitability and as a necessity for skiing has become one of the choices in the market.

According to Tianyancha data, since 2015, the number of registered enterprises with "skiing" has increased significantly. In 2019, the number of registered enterprises exceeded 1,000, and currently there are more than 6,400. As a ski equipment in a niche market, there are more than 40 related companies.

Enterprises operating ski equipment can be divided into three categories, the first isComprehensive sportswear enterprises such as Pathfinder, Anta and 361,Starting with the layout of ski costumes;Cabin skiing, as the representative, not only provides personal skiing equipment, but also includes ski resort equipment.Such as ice machines, snow-pressing vehicles, snow-making machines, snowmobiles, lighting systems, etc. In addition, there are someEnterprises that focus on making personal ski equipment brands, such as running river, Zero Summer, Vector, etc.

However, the domestic ski equipment market is still in a very early stage compared with foreign countries. Wu Bin, vice chairman of Beijing Ski Association and president of Cabin Ski, once said,Due to the late start of China’s ski industry, there is still a big gap between the manufacturing technology and product quality of domestic ski equipment manufacturers and foreign famous brands.

Liu Fengxi, the founder and &CEO of Zero Summer, told Yiou EqualOcean that the source of skiing equipment in China is mainly snow fields and factories that produce skis, and there is a lack of core talents in R&D and design. Taking advantage of the "skiing fever" in the Winter Olympics, many enterprises that have never dabbled in skiing equipment have started to make skiing equipment, but most of them are directly produced by using the existing molds in the factory, which is not able to meet the needs of skiers for snowboarding performance at different stages.

Skiing requires high quality ski equipment,Domestic skiers are more inclined to buy high-end ski equipment of imported brands.

Take veneer as an example, Burton, an American outdoor skiing brand, has a market share of 30%-40% in China, and the price is usually around 10,000 yuan. In the alpine skiing, snowboarding and freestyle skiing events of the 13th National Winter Games, the contestants from all over the country basically used imported ski equipment from snowboards, snowshoes, fixers, helmets and leggings. The top ten ski brands on the China brand network are also foreign brands.

A skier goes from an experiencer to an enthusiast, and finally to an enthusiast. With the progress of skiing technology, the requirements for skiing equipment will become higher and higher, and it will often go through the process from renting to purchasing, and then from entry to high-end.

The ski equipment that can be rented in the ski resort is more just the choice of novice experience. Some skiers said to Yiou EqualOcean, "The rented things will take only one snow season, and the next snow season will feel that they can’t keep up with your level."

When you are fascinated by skiing, a set of self-purchased primary equipment can’t meet the demand. "Many people are eager to throw away their previous primary boards after they are advanced" and "the budget is at least 5000+, which is considered to be out of the ski field".

What’s the difference between a less satisfactory set of equipment and an excellent set of skiing equipment?

From the user’s point of view,"You get what you pay for, and the imported snowshoes are the difference between the slippers in the bathhouse and your running shoes."Some people are so figurative.

Once skiing in into the pit,"integration of human and board"The realm of snow friends has become the direction of continuous exploration. "Bad equipment will affect your progress, and you can’t feel the feedback from snowboards and snowshoes."

For snow friends who like to play handsome and shoot videos, the appearance and design of some domestic brands have also been spit out. "Domestic brands also have good quality, butSkiing can’t just consider the role of protection, everyone wants to dress more handsome. "

In Liu Fengxi’s view, domestic brands and foreign brands cannot be unilaterally distinguished. The key is to do a good job in products.

He believes that there is a social division of labor in the whole market, and domestic and foreign countries are not completely independent. For example, the small blackboard in zero summer, 90% of the raw materials are imported, the design and development team is in Seattle, looking for a China foundry to produce, and the boss is from China; Both Philae and Archaeopteryx were acquired by Anta. In fact, it is difficult to define whether they are made in China.

China is the world’s foundry,"Almost all ski brands you can see and hear, especially veneers, are Made in China",But "there are the best factories in China and the worst factories in China. The same factory can produce the best things in the world and the worst things".

For related enterprises, the gap between skiing equipment has been widened as early as the initial stage of research and development. This is a highly personalized sport, and brands will inject their understanding of skiing into their products.

As an enthusiast who started skiing in 2002 and skied around the world for two or three hundred days a year at the craziest time, Liu Fengxi has seen different people, different ways of playing, different brands and equipment. The biggest feeling is that,There is a problem of vision in making ski equipment. It is not simply a product, but an understanding and love of skiing, and more professional knowledge is needed.

Take snowboarding as an example. It takes at least two years for a complete snowboard to come out. In the early stage, we need a lot of experimental data, drawing and developing molds, and in the later stage, we need a lot of time to test on the snowy road and collect feedback to revise and adjust raw materials, molds and specific parameters.

Max Parrot, a new Olympic silver medalist who signed a contract with Nobaday, tested his snowboard for nearly 100 times. Through constant experience feedback, he made a series of adjustments in design and raw materials to achieve his satisfactory competition state.

Source: Zero Summer Official Authorization

Nicole Ning, who is responsible for the development of Pathfinder’s ski product line, once said: "There are not many talents who are proficient in skiing, materials science and fashion design in China, but there are many big brands abroad, such as TNF and Archaeopteryx." Therefore, the designers of the Pathfinder ski project should snow for a certain period of time every winter to experience their own products, observe what clothes people around them wear, and exchange ski culture and product experience with the big coffee in the ski circle.

"Maybe the practice of each brand will be different, but it takes a lot of time, energy, financial resources and material resources to really do ski equipment well." Liu fengxi said.

In addition to the understanding of skiing, a lot of research and development, design and testing in the early stage,Establishing brand recognition in consumers’ minds is also a compulsory course for ski equipment enterprises.

An expert who has been operating in the ice and snow equipment industry for seven years said that in fact, the related technologies of ice and snow equipment have been localized, and China is not without excellent ski equipment.

Take snowboarding as an example. Snowboards imported from China and Europe use the same production line. Because China enterprises do OEM production for imported brands of snowboards, the raw materials, technology and quality used by domestic snowboards are no different from those of imported brands, but consumers’ recognition is low, resulting in the price of domestic brands being about 30% lower than that of imported brands.

Many foreign brands originated from a certain sport, such as lululemon’s yoga clothes, Archaeopteryx’s jacket and Burton’s ski suit, while domestic brands have a relatively broad positioning. Pushing the door open is called outdoor, and closing the door is indoor.

People who like climbing, hiking and skiing are not the same kind of people and have different equipment. "If you can’t make a yoga suit, it is a yoga brand. If you make a ski suit, it is a ski brand. Users’ understanding of the brand will only become vague and not specific." Liu fengxi believes.

Ski equipment brands should enhance users’ core perception, bind with a relatively vertically subdivided sport, and create core equipment for them as brand endorsement.

In skiing, a good ski suit is helpful to athletes, but it doesn’t play a decisive role. In order to make achievements, athletes have to rely on the core hardware to equip snowboards, fixers and snowshoes. This is like the difference between a racer’s racing suit and a car. In skiing, skis, fixers and snowshoes are that car.

However, even if Anta, the sponsor of the Winter Olympics, cuts into ski equipment with ski clothes, and there is still room for improvement in the ski core equipment.

Skiing, which is called "aristocratic" sport in China, has basically become synonymous with winter sports in Europe, America, Japan and South Korea.

According to the Report on the Development of Ski Industry in China, the population penetration rate of ski market in China is only 1%, which is far from the 35% in Switzerland, the largest Nordic skiing country in the world, and also lags far behind the 9% in Japan and 8% in the United States. This also means that there is still much room for improvement in China’s ski-related industries.

Taking the Winter Olympics as an opportunity, the State Sports General Administration put forward the goal of "300 million people on the ice and snow".

Liu fengxi explained,The goal of "300 million people on ice and snow" is well-founded., not groundless. Referring to the developed countries such as the United States, Japan, Switzerland, Austria, France, Canada, etc., the total skiing population basically accounts for about 10%-30% of the total national population, and there are about 1.4 billion people in China, which is almost 300 million people based on the average ratio of 20% in developed countries.

Before 2015, the domestic ice and snow industry grew almost savagely. In 2015, Beijing successfully bid for the Winter Olympics, and the state issued a series of policies to promote the development of the industry.

During 2016-2020, the state and local governments promulgated the Development Plan for Ice and Snow Sports (2016-2025), the Popularization Plan for Mass Winter Sports (2016-2020), the National Construction Plan for Ice and Snow Facilities (2016-2022) and the National Measures for the Administration of Winter Sports Competitions (for Trial Implementation).

The United States has hosted four Winter Olympics and Japan has hosted two Winter Olympics.Every "post-Winter Olympics" era has brought a very large increase in the number of skiers, the improvement of hardware facilities and the improvement of basic service capabilities.

After Beijing’s successful bid to host the Winter Olympics, entrepreneurs and investors were moved by the wind, and many emerging entrepreneurial projects were favored by investors, such as zero summer, skiing, skiing, and Vector, covering the entire ski industry chain, including ski equipment, ski training, ski information, and ski services.

The approaching of the Beijing Winter Olympics has obviously brought about a wave of skiing craze.

In 2020, the amount of skiing-related notes published in the lifestyle community Little Red Book increased by 89% year-on-year; In late November of that year, the search volume related to skiing content increased by 150% year-on-year, and the release volume increased by 300% year-on-year.

According to the "2020 Winter New Vitality Life Trend Report" released by CBNData and Tmall Sports, from November to December, 2020, the sales of ski equipment increased by 1300% year-on-year, and domestic emerging brands such as Nanen, Vector and Nobaday entered the "Top 10 brands that love ice and snow in the Z era".

Without the maturity of infrastructure, there will be no real skiing craze, and the hosting of the Winter Olympics has become the target node of many infrastructure construction in China. From 2014 to 2019, the number of ski resorts in China increased from 460 to 770. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, there were 715 ski resorts operating normally.

The supporting facilities around the ski resort are also constantly improving, and we try to break through the seasonal restrictions of skiing to achieve all-season operation. In the non-snow season, we operate cross-country mountain bikes, real-life CS and other projects, and develop into an ice and snow town integrating tourism, entertainment, commerce and real estate.

Yu Jingming, the founder of Le Dian Skiing, pointed out that if we look at the development of Chongli, we will know that the changes in the ski resort are amazing. Now we simply can’t see that it used to be a poor county. When Wanlong opened its business, it didn’t even have a hanging box, and now its hardware and services are close to the Japanese level.

However, this is only the beginning. Before the successful hosting of the Winter Olympics, the market was more eager to lay out infrastructure such as snow fields and improve transportation hotels and other supporting facilities. Liu Fengxi said,After 2022, we will welcome the golden decade of skiing industry.

The ski industry is welcoming golden decade. Is the ski equipment expected to become a mass market from a niche market?

The International Snow Federation defines the difference between skiers and enthusiasts by two criteria: first, whether it has its own equipment, and second, whether it has the frequency of skiing in ski resorts for 5 times or more every year.

In China, where there are many skiers, the first piece of equipment for many skiers has not been solved, and "at least 15 pieces of equipment are needed to really experience skiing".Liu Fengxi said that the current market is still in the stage of low conversion rate, and many skiers ski once a year, making it difficult to form purchasing power.

The ski equipment market should ride the wind of "300 million people on ice and snow", and the key is to improve the conversion rate.Let more people get on the ice and snow, turn more skiers into skiers, and the demand for equipment is gradually increasing. This requires the promotion of the general environment, the improvement of venues and supporting facilities, and the improvement of national consumption level.

China Ski Industry Development Report predicts that by 2022, the number of skiers is expected to rise to 45 million, and the ski retail equipment market in China will reach 45 billion yuan. This is still a niche market.

However, there is no small market, only small brands. Ski equipment has the characteristics of just need, high profit and growth. A brand widely accepted and recognized by consumers is far more useful than the scale of 100 billion and the space of one trillion.

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How to prevent love from losing to distance

In clinical psychological counseling, couples or couples often encounter the problem of separation. The more you consult these questions, the more you can find that there is a natural conflict between love and distance. If we don’t handle it carefully, the probability of love losing to distance is still quite large. Therefore, whether it is a couple in love or an old couple who have been married for many years, it is a problem that we need to face up to and pay attention to.

The following analysis and suggestions can also provide reference for the situation that the family cannot be taken care of for some reasons.

Whether it’s a couple in love or an old couple who have been married for many years, being away from home is a problem that we need to face up to and pay attention to; Image from the network)

Why distance

Have such a great influence on love?

Speaking of this question, I have to talk about three essential elements of perfect love: intimacy, passion and commitment. The three elements of love were put forward by Robert Robert Jeffrey Sternberg, a professor of psychology at Yale University. He pointed out that different stages and types of love can be interpreted as different combinations of these three elements. For example, with the development of two people’s romantic relationship, the focus of each component will change. For example, there will be more passion at first, but gradually, commitment will become more important. Robert Jeffrey Sternberg also found that the duration of a relationship based on a single factor is not as long as that based on two or three factors.

Three elements of love: intimacy, passion and commitment; The size of the triangle indicates the degree of admiration, and the larger the triangle, the higher the degree of admiration; Each horn represents a unique type of love; Different combinations form seven different types of love; Image from the network)

Usually, the intimate relationship with the longest persistence and the highest satisfaction is obtained by the efforts of both partners to maintain intimacy and enhance their sense of responsibility.

In a long-distance relationship, intimacy is easily affected. Sometimes what can be solved by a hug leads to misunderstandings and the accumulation of negative emotions because of the obstacles of emotional expression.

Coupled with the cumulative effect of different living environments and different social circles, over time, it is likely that two people will have less and less common language and it will become more and more difficult to understand each other.

What is even more frightening is that it will wear away trust. There are many uncertain factors for two people who live in different places for a long time, such as a message or phone call that can’t be answered in time, a photo taken with other members of the opposite sex, a lie that hides their whereabouts, and so on, which may lead to the collapse of trust.

Therefore, the lack of intimacy is the key reason why many long-distance relationships lose to distance and time.

Lack of intimacy is the key reason why many long-distance relationships lose to distance and time; Image from the network)

How to overcome the troubles in different places?

Then how can we overcome the unfavorable factors brought by different places and maintain a harmonious and long-lasting relationship? We suggest that couples or couples who are experiencing the test in different places need to do the following work:

First, learn to communicate deeply and build a building of trust.

The hardest part to deal with in different places is communication. Many people think that communication mainly depends on language, but in actual communication, the influence of language information is very small, accounting for only about 7%, and tone, facial expression and body account for 93%. Therefore, when two people communicate in different places, it is impossible to fully understand each other’s emotional state, even if it is a video, it lacks the participation of touch and smell, and it is impossible to achieve a comprehensive experience. Therefore, it is very important to improve the depth and efficiency of communication.

For communication in different places, we suggest that the big principle is "report every day, learn to share, and don’t have a cold war".

(The principle of communication in different places: report every day, learn to share, and never have a cold war; Image from the network)

Many couples in different places are busy at work, so it may be unrealistic to report from time to time, but it may become a burden to each other. However, it is necessary to give a brief report every day, especially for men. Before going to bed, they should briefly talk about their day’s situation and the next day’s arrangements, voice messages or short calls. With such a habit, mutual trust will be enhanced.

By sharing your own life, you can let each other know about your living environment and dynamics and enhance each other’s sense of security.

But no matter how good two people are, conflicts are inevitable. Quarrel is not terrible, but couples in different places should not use the cold war to deal with conflicts.

Second, strengthen the sense of ceremony, and farewell is better than marriage.

The preservation of two people’s love needs a sense of ceremony, and it is more urgent for both parties in different places to achieve the state of "a little farewell is better than a new marriage" by strengthening the sense of ceremony.

We can strengthen the sense of ritual in getting along from two aspects, one is to make rules, and the other is to create romance.

You can strengthen the sense of ritual in getting along in two ways: making rules and creating romance; Image from the network)

At the beginning of different places, it is necessary to make some rules to ensure the constant love interaction between two people. For example, talk every day, say good night to each other every day, and make regular video calls; Regarding communication, we must speak out if there are contradictions, instead of holding them in our hearts and fighting for the night; Regarding trust, no matter how busy you are, you should explain it in advance and share it briefly, and you must explain the unexpected situation afterwards. These agreements will subconsciously make us cherish our feelings and make the feelings in different places more stable.

In creating romance, many couples, especially girls, need to feel loved, so don’t ignore each other’s needs and set aside time to take care of her emotions and express their feelings. Properly expressing your thoughts and love for each other can make each other feel cared for. You can also often create some surprises for each other, such as writing a few love words to each other and singing a love song to each other. If you travel frequently, when you meet again, you should buy some carefully selected gifts for the other party, such as what the other party mentioned to you, to let the other party know that you are thinking about her at any time, so as to achieve the effect that parting is better than getting married.

Third, create romantic expectations and give full play to the power of commitment.

For a long-distance relationship, commitment is an important driving force for each other to overcome the current difficulties. If there is no expectation for the future, it is difficult for two people to resist the suffering of loneliness and missing. Therefore, when you are in a different place, you must increase the chances of meeting as much as possible, and before each separation, you can start to create the expectation of meeting next time, and try to be specific and look forward to it together. For example, "Let’s meet in a month, and I’ll cook you a big seafood dinner, so that you can taste my loving cooking skills.".

(When you are in a different place, you must increase the chances of meeting as much as possible, and before each separation, you can start to create the expectation of meeting next time, try to be specific and look forward to it together, but don’t break your promise; Image from the network)

Expectation can be divided into short-term goals and long-term goals.

Short-term goals can be aimed at mutual interests, such as traveling together, shopping together, climbing mountains together, watching movies together, etc. You can make a detailed plan, work together and implement it one by one, so that more connections can be built.

Don’t break your promise, if it doesn’t come true, and blame each other, the balance of your emotional savings account will be less and less.

The long-term goal is about the expectations of being together in the future. Couples in love can look forward to the wedding picture together, how romantic the wedding is, how exquisite the home decoration is, and how interesting the future life will be. For example, "When we get married in the future, we must raise a lovely kitten at home and have a particularly lovely child. I will take pictures of you, the kitten and the child, and I will be very happy when I think about it."

For married couples, how to solve the problem of separation between the two places is a very realistic topic. The other party may understand the needs of temporary career development, but if career development is always put above the needs of the other party, the probability of emotional problems is still very high if two people get together for a long time, so it is necessary to take care of how long to solve the problem in different places and how to make up for each other’s feelings, and give a promise to make the other party really feel at ease.

This paper is adapted from Intimate Relationship Management —— How to Deal with Conflicts in Intimate Relationship Rationally.

If you have other questions about marriage or physical and mental health, please feel free to give us feedback, and we will choose appropriate topics to answer questions on popular science.

Contribution/Publicity Department of Public Security Department

Editor/Seagull

Original title: "Better Police Body and Mind | How to Keep Love from Losing to Distance"

Read the original text

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Beijing Hongxi International Golf Club

It’s been five months since I changed my pole on May Day to eleven. During the eleventh period, I played three games, and I went to the Grand Canal that day, all of which were over 100. From last year, I set a goal to break through 100 before the Olympics, and now I have played 99 in Hongxi in July. I think golf is not that easy to get. There are many problems. When I first started playing, the driver still had a distance. It’s best to hit 300, but now everything is at 220-240. Eleven stayed in Beijing, went to the driving range every day, practiced in Gaorun, looked for Niu Niu to see the movement, and changed the driver’s movement, which was still unstable, so it was difficult to fix the movement. [detailed]

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It is estimated that more than 300,000 tables will be booked for online New Year’s Eve dinner and group annual banquet! Have you decided what to eat?

On February 9th, the online staff of Qinma Hot Pot was busy. On this day, only the online New Year’s Eve hot pot package order was received, and 180 orders were received.
This is a microcosm of the online booking of catering enterprises in Chongqing since Chongqing launched the online New Year Festival and online New Year’s Eve booking, in order to make it easier for people staying in Chongqing for the New Year.
Banquet packages around 300 yuan are the most popular
According to the person in charge of Qinma Hot Pot, this year’s online dinner of Qinma Hot Pot has launched 10-person packages, 8-person packages, 6-person packages and 4-person packages. The price of these packages ranges from 300 yuan to 800 yuan, and the best one is the package for 6-8 people, with the original price of 438 yuan and the preferential price of 388 yuan during the Spring Festival.
"Usually, I take out about 30 orders a day. During the Spring Festival, the closer I get to the Spring Festival, the more take-out orders. February 9 is the most day, and I received more than 180 orders." The person in charge said that the online hot pot dinner package of more than 300 yuan sold the best. Among them, the hot pot must order beef tripe, duck intestines and fresh-cut grassland beef with the highest click-through rate; Duck blood and mushrooms in vegetarian dishes are also highly clicked.
At the same time, during the Spring Festival this year, Liziba Liangshan Chicken launched four sets of meals, including four meals, eight meals, three to four meals and six to eight meals. According to reports, the business of the set meal in February exceeded 500,000 yuan, among which the meal for 3-4 people was the most popular, and the price was 227 yuan.
Liziba Liangshan Chicken introduced that in this year’s dinner reservation, the signature dish Liziba Liangshan Chicken is the most popular. Secondly, the popular signature dishes such as Zhao Jie chicken offal and beauty pig hands are also deeply loved by consumers.
Beef is a must for almost every hot pot.
Yang Changjiang, general manager of Jie Fangbei Jiuchongtian Revolving Restaurant, told reporters that online orders have risen sharply, with more than 80 online orders that night.
According to the person in charge of Brother Zhou’s hot pot, since the online Chinese New Year Festival was held, the online group purchase of enterprises has risen sharply, and the online ordering of individuals has increased since the end of January, and the monthly subscription volume has increased by at least 30%.
Take Brother Zhou’s Auto Expo Store as an example. On February 10th, 24 online orders were delivered. Up to now, only 12 orders were received on New Year’s Eve, and most of them were large orders for about 10 people, ranging from 900 to 1,500 yuan.
Among them, the waist slice package is the best, followed by the hairy belly package and the duck sausage package. The meat dishes with the most hits are mainly Brother Zhou’s broadsword waist slices, hairy belly, duck intestines and freshly cut beef. The most clicked materials include lotus root slices, bean sprouts and mushrooms.
Major hot pot enterprises said that in recent two years, beef is almost a must-have dish for every hot pot, replacing the traditional dishes of Chongqing hot pot, such as yellow throat, brain flower, lunch meat and crisp meat, and becoming one of the most clicked meat dishes, which also shows that people’s nutritional awareness is getting stronger and stronger, and hot pot dishes are constantly being enriched and adjusted.
It is estimated that more than 300,000 tables will be booked for online New Year’s Eve dinner and group annual banquet.
It is understood that in order to make it easy for people who stay in Chongqing for the New Year, the Chongqing Municipal Commission of Commerce has launched the "Home Shopping Online New Year" and the 2021 Aishang Chongqing Online New Year Festival since January 20.
At the same time, on February 1, Chongqing launched the activity of sending New Year’s Eve dinner home, and 278 catering enterprises or restaurants volunteered to participate in the activity.
Jie Fangbei Jiuchongtian Revolving Restaurant, Liangjiang Lijing Hotel, etc. all offer special packages for New Year’s Eve. Qin Ma Hot Pot, Brother Zhou Hot Pot, Wood Stove, Lotus Room, etc., all have discounts on online ordering.
According to the data from Chongqing Municipal Commission of Commerce, the local community e-commerce platform "Explosives King" in Chongqing and 25 local catering merchants in N37 Moonlight City Commercial Center launched the New Year’s Eve dinner home delivery activity. Up to now, the total transaction volume of the platform was 5.9 million yuan, and the order volume increased by 219% year-on-year, and the number of daily users exceeded 28,000.
It is estimated that during the Spring Festival this year, more than 300,000 tables will be booked for online New Year’s Eve and group annual banquets in the city, and the estimated turnover will exceed 200 million yuan, which will effectively meet the consumption demand of citizens for New Year’s Eve and reunion dinner and fully release the consumption potential of catering services.
Upstream News-chongqing morning post reporter Xu Ju
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The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue blue warnings for severe convective weather and heavy rain at 06: 00 on May 5.

CCTV News:According to the website of the Central Meteorological Observatory, the Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a blue warning of severe convective weather at 06: 00 on May 5.

It is estimated that there will be 8-10 thunderstorms or hailstorms in parts of western Hubei, western Hunan, northwestern Jiangxi, northeastern Sichuan Basin, western Chongqing, central and eastern Guizhou and northern Guizhou from 08: 00 on May 5 to 08: 00 on May 6. There will be short-term heavy rainfall in parts of southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, western and southern Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, northern Zhejiang, northwestern Fujian, northeastern Sichuan Basin, Chongqing, central, eastern and northern Guizhou, with an hourly rainfall of 20-40 mm and a local area of more than 50 mm.

It is estimated that the main influence period of strong convection is from afternoon to night today.

Defense guide:

1. The government and relevant departments shall, in accordance with their duties, prepare for short-term rainstorm prevention, lightning protection and gale prevention, and the meteorological department shall prepare for artificial hail suppression;

2. Outdoor pedestrians and staff should reduce outdoor activities and pay attention to stay away from structures such as scaffolding billboards;

3. Drive poultry and livestock into places with roofs, and close doors and windows to reinforce sheds;

4. The water operations in relevant waters and passing ships shall take active measures such as returning to Hong Kong to avoid or detour navigation, pay attention to covering building materials at the construction site, and properly arrange outdoor items susceptible to heavy rain, wind and hail;

5. Check the drainage system of cities, farmland and fish ponds, and prepare for drainage and defense against disasters such as mountain torrents, landslides and mudslides.

The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a blue rainstorm warning at 06: 00 on May 5.

It is estimated that from 08: 00 on May 5 to 08: 00 on May 6, there will be heavy rains in eastern Sichuan, most of Chongqing, southwestern Hubei, northeastern Guizhou, northwestern and eastern Hunan, central Jiangxi, northwestern Fujian, northwestern Shaanxi and western Shanxi, among which there will be heavy rains (100-120 mm) in western Hunan and central Jiangxi. Some of the above areas are accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall (the maximum hourly rainfall is 20 ~ 40 mm, and the local area can exceed 50 mm), and there are strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.

Defense guide:

1, the government and relevant departments in accordance with their duties to prepare for the storm;

2. Schools and kindergartens should take appropriate measures to ensure the safety of students and children;

3. Drivers should pay attention to road water and traffic jams to ensure safety;

4, check the city, farmland, fish pond drainage system, ready for drainage.