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　　In the past two days, the annual Central Economic Work Conference was held. In his important speech, General Secretary of the Supreme Leader comprehensively summarized the economic work in 2023, profoundly analyzed the current economic situation, and systematically deployed the economic work in 2024.

　　How to understand this year’s economic situation and see through next year’s development trend? Is it "seeing flowers in the fog" or "watching the fire from the hole"? Today, let’s find out from six perspectives.

　　Zhejiang Gongyuan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in Huangyan, Taizhou, the staff is operating a fully automatic welding machine to produce solar cells. Source: Xinhua News Agency

　　First, overall, the upward trend is a wave curve.

　　China’s economy is huge and involves a wide range. If you want to understand it correctly, you must not make a hasty conclusion by only a few indicators. There are many complex variables hidden behind it, which need us to consider all aspects comprehensively.

　　For example, production and supply have steadily picked up. Since the beginning of this year, China’s agricultural production situation has been good, and the national grain harvest has been bumper again. This is the ninth consecutive year that China’s grain output has remained above 1.3 trillion Jin. In addition, in industry and service industry, the growth trend is equally good. In the first 10 months of this year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.1% year-on-year, and the production index of service industry increased by 7.9%. It is worth mentioning that scientific and technological innovation, a "key variable", is also building a strong momentum for the high-quality development of China’s economy.

　　Maybe you will ask, why does Moody’s, an international rating agency, downgrade the outlook of China’s sovereign credit rating when the economy is developing so well? If we look at the rating, we can’t just look at Moody’s family. Recently, many international organizations and international commercial organizations have raised China’s economic growth expectations and cast a "vote of confidence" for China’s economy.

　　For example, JPMorgan Chase raised its forecast for China’s economic growth from 5% to 5.2%, Morgan Stanley from 4.8% to 5.1%, and Citigroup from 5% to 5.3%. In addition, up to now, the heads of global business giants such as Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla and Louis Vuitton have visited China one after another to seek cooperation opportunities, and they are optimistic about the prospects of China’s economic development. The development trend of China’s economy is just like a wave-like rising curve. For ourselves, it is even more necessary to have a firm belief, from which we can see the resilience and potential of development.

　　Second, personally, why do some people feel inconsistent with macro data?

　　In the first three quarters of 2023, China’s total GDP was 91,302.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices; In the first eleven months, the national consumer price index rose by 0.3% year-on-year & hellip; … It can be said that from the data point of view, China’s economic operation continues to improve, and globally, it belongs to the first echelon of high growth.

　　But despite this, many people feel that business is getting harder and harder, jobs are getting harder and harder to find, making money is getting harder and harder, and money is getting more and more afraid to spend. Why?

　　On the big side, we must see that China’s economy has passed the previous stage of high-speed growth and turned into a stage of high-quality development, and it must face a long period of structural adjustment. For example, "new quality productivity" represented by new energy vehicles and photovoltaic industry is rising rapidly, while the growth rate of "traditional productivity" represented by real estate and its related industries is slowing down. This structural adjustment will inevitably bring some pains, especially when the growth kinetic energy of the former is not enough to cover the gap caused by the adjustment period, which will affect some people’s income and quality of life to some extent.

　　SAIC MG brand cars and new energy vehicles waiting to be shipped to Australia at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Haitong Automobile Terminal Source: Xinhua News Agency

　　From a small point of view, compared with the macro structural adjustment and economic growth, the individual’s experience of economic development is more subtle, and the people mainly feel economic development through daily life. There is a certain asymmetry between the comprehensiveness of macro indicators and the dispersion of micro feelings.

　　For example, it is normal that there is a certain deviation between the change of CPI and residents’ perception of price changes. The CPI data published by the National Bureau of Statistics is an average comprehensive index, which reflects the price trend of many commodities and services, but what ordinary people often feel every day is the price change of a single variety.

　　Coupled with the superposition of factors such as communication technology, ordinary people’s cognition of economic development has been affected to some extent. For example, the changing situation of the stock market, the adjustment and transformation of the Internet industry, and so on, have set off a storm of public opinion on the Internet from time to time, inevitably amplifying the public’s anxiety.

　　Third, historically, it is in a critical period of climbing over the ridge.

　　For China’s economy, the Supreme Leader General Secretary once made an image metaphor, "China’s economy is a sea, not a small pond".

　　Looking back on the course along the way, China’s economy is indeed as magnificent as the sea. Small winds and small waves, wind and rain are the norm, and big winds and waves sometimes occur. But every time after overcoming the crisis, it can always glow with more vigorous vitality. For example, in the Asian financial crisis in 1998, China’s economy withstood tremendous pressure and adopted multiple strategies to tide over the crisis smoothly, which suddenly attracted the attention of the whole world; In the international financial crisis in 2008, China’s economy once again showed a stable and far-reaching side of travel. After that crisis, China has also become one of the most important economies in the world.

　　At present, geopolitics, century epidemic and global inflation have also brought unprecedented challenges to China’s economy, but judging from the "hard core report card" of China’s economic difficulties, we should also remain confident.

　　As General Secretary of the Supreme Leader said, "When is there no difficulty? One by one, year after year, year after year, the Chinese nation has been like this for more than 5000 years. The key to climbing the hill is to boost confidence. " Now is the time for China’s economy to climb the hill and break through the barrier, and it will inevitably encounter some fluctuations and twists and turns, but at the same time, it is also honing itself. After this hurdle, the next journey will surely be sunny.

　　Fourth, dialectically, the crisis is organic and the crisis can turn around.

　　Objectively speaking, China’s economy is wading across the river, and it is always in new development and changes, whether facing opportunities or challenges.

　　Looking at China, the problem of insufficient development imbalance is still outstanding, the deep-seated contradictions in the reform and development are intertwined, and there are still security risks in the fields of food, energy and finance. China’s economy still needs to overcome difficulties.

　　Looking at the world, influenced by many factors such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the world economy is moving forward in a stumbling way. Although the direct impact of the century epidemic has gradually faded, its deep impact continues. Coupled with the counter-current, protectionism and unilateralism of economic globalization, the external pressure on China’s economic development has increased.

　　In addition, some western media use cognitive warfare to sing down China’s economy or empty China’s economy, clamoring for the so-called "China’s economic collapse theory" and "risk removal theory", ignoring the facts, making things out of nothing, and confusing people, in an attempt to disturb the judgments, expectations and confidence of all walks of life in China’s economy.

　　But as the old saying goes, danger is organic, and danger can turn around. History has proved more than once that the crisis is not only the cause of inducing the decline of the holdout countries, but also an opportunity to help the emerging countries become stronger. When we have mastered the skills of accurately recognizing changes, responding scientifically and actively seeking changes, and capturing and creating opportunities from crises, difficulties will be solved one by one, and problems will be broken one by one, thus "jumping up" and overtaking in corners and changing lanes will be realized.

　　China (Shandong) Pilot Free Trade Zone Qingdao Area Source: Xinhua News Agency

　　5. In the long run, the next "China" will be China.

　　Economic development is a spiraling process. We should not only look at the current "shape", but also look at the long-term "potential".

　　Identify the general trend. In the changing times, being strong is the last word. General Secretary of the Supreme Leader pointed out: "Our greatest opportunity is our continuous development and growth." After the founding of New China, especially since the reform and opening-up, our party has led the people to create a miracle of rapid economic development and long-term social stability, which is rare in the world, and provided the greatest confidence for China’s economic stability.

　　Keep the trend right. Among the "big classes" in the world, China’s economy continues to pick up, and it is still one of the strongest engines of global growth. According to the latest report, China’s economic contribution to global economic growth will reach one third this year. Recently, under the background of multiple uncertainties in the global economy, international institutions have intensively raised China’s economic growth expectations, which is the best proof.

　　Inspire the advantage. Practically speaking, China’s economic development still has many favorable conditions and supporting factors. For example, the dynamic advantages brought by the continuous deepening of reform and opening up, the institutional advantages of the socialist market economy, the demand advantages of the super-large-scale market, the complete supply advantages of the industrial system, and the talent advantages of a large number of high-quality workers and entrepreneurs, etc., all of which are the strong endogenous power and potential of China’s economic development.

　　China has strong economic resilience, sufficient potential and wide room for manoeuvre. The fundamentals of long-term improvement have not changed and will not change. Insisting on doing your own thing well and making yourself grow and develop continuously is the "ballast stone" and "reassurance" to deal with all risk challenges.

　　Since the beginning of this year, the domestic cultural tourism market has been booming. The picture shows tourists visiting the Xi’ an City Wall Scenic Area. Source: Xinhua News Agency

　　6. Strategically speaking, "strive for progress in stability, promote stability by progress, establish first and then break"

　　On December 8th, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting, which clearly emphasized that next year we should adhere to the 12-word policy tone of "striving for progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, and establishing before breaking".

　　"Striving for progress in stability" is the general tone. As we all know, this is both a basic method and a successful experience. To put it bluntly, it is to insist on the word "stability". For a large-scale economy like our country, the annual increase in GDP is equivalent to the annual economic aggregate of a medium-sized country, so stability is overwhelming, and "stability" is also the biggest "progress". This also requires us to improve our ability to cope with extreme situations with bottom-line thinking and extreme thinking, and ensure high-quality development with high-level security.

　　"Promoting stability through progress" and "striving for progress through stability" are a pair of dialectical relations, which emphasize the relationship between "stability" and "progress". Highlighting "promoting stability through progress" is the component that further highlights "progress", emphasizing fully stimulating the advantages and vitality of all aspects, accelerating the construction of a new development pattern, and always being invincible in the fierce market competition and big country game.

　　"Stand first and then break" does not mean that there is no "break" in the process of "stand first", but "stand" is the main contradiction and the main aspect of contradiction. Just like in land acquisition and demolition, high-quality housing is built first and then demolished, from "waiting for a house" to "waiting for a house", so that not only the difficulty coefficient of demolition will be greatly reduced, but also the unstable factors of demolition will be controlled. It can be seen that in the future, in the transformation of old and new kinetic energy, the sublation of old and new mechanisms, and the coordination of pilot promotion, "standing first" will not be "broken for the sake of breaking".

　　Of course, in the final analysis, the most important thing at present is to stabilize expectations and strengthen confidence, which is also the top priority and key to doing a good job in economic work. Grasping this "bull’s nose" can form a joint force to promote high-quality development.

CCTV News:We can see that the central and western regions showed a good momentum of development in the first half of this year. In fact, there was another force with a good trend in the first half of this year, that is, attracting foreign investment. Just like our keyword "potential" today, there is a word "force" below it. If we use the word "force", we can form strength, vitality or potential. In the first half of this year, double-digit growth of foreign capital injected new vitality into China’s economy. Then, in the face of international and domestic challenges, what makes our country the first choice for foreign investment? Let’s go to Jiangsu, the largest province for attracting foreign investment, to find the answer.

Jiangsu: the "magnetic attraction" of the largest foreign capital province"

In Suzhou High-tech Zone, Jiangsu, recently, another Japanese-funded enterprise plans to invest 100 million yuan to build the first overseas R&D center in Suzhou High-tech Zone.

On this morning, Jin Shuyu, the resident Commissioner from Fengqiao Street, Suzhou High-tech Zone, sent the just-obtained approval document for the R&D center project to the enterprise. This foreign company is mainly engaged in the production of solder resist ink for circuit board printing. Last year, the output value reached 1 billion yuan and the profit was about 150 million yuan. Although Suzhou Company has a large output and high output value, the factory facilities and equipment have hardly been updated in the past 20 years.

Facing the rapid development of 5G products in China market and semiconductor industry, the general manager of Mishima, who has just been in office for one year, has a sense of crisis. In order to keep the technological leadership and market share, he plans to increase investment in Suzhou. But his idea, at first, Japanese company headquarters felt very hesitant.

Since the company’s operating profit in China is good, and the enterprise has the consideration of increasing capital and expanding production, Fengqiao Street in Suzhou High-tech Zone will follow up in time after learning about it and provide "point-to-point" accurate service.

In order to reassure the headquarters of Japanese companies, in March this year, the Suzhou High-tech Zone Government conducted an "online" communication with the headquarters of the company in Japan, introducing in detail the preferential policies enjoyed by profit reinvestment, the market prospect of China and the high-quality business environment. At the same time, it also sent 24-hour resident to help enterprises coordinate and solve various difficulties in time. The enterprise finally turned 100 million yuan of the 150 million profits last year into further investment.

Paying close attention to the demands of enterprises, strengthening security services and guiding enterprises to reinvest profits with preferential policies for foreign investment are the "magic weapon" for Jiangsu to activate existing foreign investment.

　　In order to better play the role of cases in guiding and standardizing judicial expertise, on July 5, 2023, The Ministry of Justice issued four cases, namely, Forensic Clinical Appraisal Case of Medical Faults and Causality of Binocular Retinopathy of Premature Infants Caused by Oxygen Inhalation by Institute of Science and Technology of Law University Court, Forensic Pathological Appraisal Case of Death Cause of Patient Ma Moumou after Infusion by Ningxia Forensic Judicial Appraisal Center, Forensic Appraisal Case of Collision Form and Traffic Behavior Mode of Traffic Participants in Road Traffic Accidents by Institute of Forensic Science, and Environmental Damage Appraisal Case of Chongqing Spiegel Judicial Appraisal Institute for a unit violating land use planning and carrying out project construction to destroy cultivated land. The cases released this time are concentrated in the fields of medical health, traffic safety, ecological environment protection, etc., which are closely related to people’s production and life, fully embodying the characteristics of judicial expertise serving the people and litigation activities, and have strong typicality, demonstration and guidance.

　　In recent years, the Ministry of Justice and local judicial administrative organs have conscientiously implemented the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee on judicial expertise, actively promoted the reform of the unified judicial expertise management system, earnestly strengthened supervision and management, constantly woven a tight supervision network through special governance, comprehensive evaluation and spot checks, and comprehensively used various means to consistently improve the quality and credibility of expertise, making important contributions to ensuring the smooth progress of litigation, promoting judicial justice and safeguarding the legitimate rights and interests of the people.

　　The above cases can be searched and consulted in "Judicial Administration (Legal Service) Case Database" of China Legal Service Network.　

Case 1

The Institute of Science and Technology Appraisal of the University of LawBinocular retinopathy in premature infants after oxygen inhalationForensic clinical appraisal case of medical fault and its cause strength

　　Brief introduction of case

　　On November 27, 2018, after Li was born, he was treated with oxygen inhalation in an incubator in a maternal and child health hospital because of "cyanosis, spitting and poor reaction for 10 minutes after premature birth and suffocation". He was discharged after nearly 50 days of hospitalization. After leaving the hospital, Li was treated in other hospitals. On January 29, 2019, he was diagnosed with "binocular ROP (phase 5)". After many operations, he left behind serious consequences of blindness. In order to find out whether there is any fault in the diagnosis and treatment of Li in a maternal and child health hospital and the magnitude of the cause in the consequences, the people’s court entrusted the Institute of Science and Technology Appraisal of the Law University to conduct an appraisal.

　　After all the medical records were submitted for examination, and referring to the consultation opinions of clinical experts, the appraiser believed that the hospital had a clear clinical diagnosis after the birth of the appraiser Li, and the diagnosis and treatment measures adopted basically met the needs of the disease treatment. However, there are some wrong diagnosis and treatment behaviors in a maternal and child health hospital: first, the oxygen therapy for the identified person is high in content and lasts for a long time, and the respiratory management is not standardized; Second, the relevant fundus screening of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) was not paid attention to, and the risk foresight was obviously insufficient; Third, inadequate information about retinopathy of prematurity (ROP).

　　At the same time, the identified Li has the basic factors of ROP: premature infants (gestational age 30+4W) and low birth weight infants (2000g); Risk factors of ROP: asphyxia at birth, neonatal respiratory distress syndrome, respiratory distress after resuscitation, various premature complications, hypoxia and oxygen treatment; After birth, the condition is critical, the treatment is difficult and the choice is difficult.

　　Based on the above factors, it is considered that Li, the identified person, caused the damage consequences of ROP Phase 5 under the joint action of his own high-risk factors of ROP and medical faults in a maternal and child health hospital. The appraisal opinions issued by the appraiser are as follows: 1. According to the existing appraisal materials, there were improper oxygen use (high oxygen concentration and long duration), irregular respiratory management, failure to consider fundus screening and insufficient information about ROP risks in the diagnosis and treatment of Li, a maternal and child health hospital. 2. There is a causal relationship between the above-mentioned medical fault of the doctor and the damage consequences of ROP5 in both eyes of the appraiser Li. 3. Considering the factors of the appraised person’s own disease and medical fault, it is appropriate to take "the same cause" as the cause of the medical fault in a maternal and child health hospital.

　　The appraisal opinion was accepted by the court, and Li’s family expressed their understanding.

　　Case number:

　　BJSJYW1667348075

travel to watch industry

Ningxia Court Scientific Judicial Appraisal Center conducted a forensic pathological appraisal of the cause of death after infusion in Ma Moumou Hospital.

　　Brief introduction of case

　　One day in 2021, Ma went to a hospital because of "swollen neck lymph nodes for one week and swollen eyelids for one day". The initial diagnosis was: 1. Acute tonsillitis; 2. Cervical lymphadenitis. The hospital gave infusion and other treatments, and after infusion, there was loss of consciousness and cyanosis on the face. After being rescued, he was declared dead in the early morning of the next day. In order to find out the cause of Ma’s death, the People’s Mediation Committee of Medical Disputes entrusted the Scientific Judicial Appraisal Center of Ningxia Court for appraisal.

　　Autopsy revealed that an irregular mass with a volume of 7.5cm×7cm×3cm was seen in Ma’s anterior mediastinum, weighing 149.6g, and its section was gray and nodular. The mass adheres to the surrounding tissues, and the mass adheres to the pericardium, which is difficult to peel off. The mass continues to grow to the bilateral hilum of the lung, and the upper end reaches the upper lobe of the lung, and the mass pushes the heart down. Combined with immunohistochemical staining, microscope confirmed that the mass was thymic T-lymphoblastic lymphoma, involving the heart, bilateral kidneys, bilateral submandibular lymph nodes and other organs. The tumor spread widely, and the diffuse tumor cells of the heart, kidneys and other organs infiltrated, which could lead to the death of the identified person due to circulatory and respiratory failure.

　　In this case, there is insufficient evidence of drug allergy in autopsy, and no other fatal developmental malformation or basic disease is found in anatomy. Mechanical asphyxia caused by pressing the nose and mouth, strangling the neck and blocking foreign bodies in the trachea can be ruled out, as can mechanical injury caused by external violence.

　　Based on the above factors, the appraisal opinion issued by the appraiser is: Ma Moumou conforms to thymic T-lymphoblastic lymphoma, involving many organs such as heart, bilateral kidneys and bilateral submandibular lymph nodes, and died of circulatory and respiratory failure.

　　The appraisal opinion was unanimously recognized by the People’s Mediation Committee for Medical Disputes, the hospital and Ma’s family, which provided scientific evidence support for the successful resolution of contradictions and disputes.

　　Case number:

　　NXSJYW1652359449

Case 3

Research institute of forensic science on road trafficCollision patterns of traffic participants in accidents andAppraisal case of traffic behavior mode

　　Brief introduction of case

　　On a certain day in June, 2021, a passenger car collided with a human tricycles at a section of No.225 Provincial Highway in Jiangsu Province from north to south. At the time of the incident, the passenger car traveling from north to south suddenly met Li Moumou and human tricycles, who were holding an umbrella, and the two sides failed to avoid the collision. Li Moumou died on the spot and the vehicles of both sides were damaged. The two sides of the accident have disputes about the collision form of the vehicle and Li’s traffic behavior (riding or carrying out) at the time of the incident. In order to find out the real situation of the accident, the local case-handling unit entrusted the Institute of Forensic Science to make a judicial appraisal of the collision form of the vehicles of both sides and the traffic behavior mode of Li Moumou at the time of the incident.

　　It is found that the marks on the right front part of the passenger car and the left side of human tricycles can form a corresponding relationship between the mark-making body and the mark-bearing body, which accords with the characteristics of the collision between the right front part of the passenger car and the left side of human tricycles. Human tricycles saddle is skewed to the lower left, and it deflects counterclockwise. Combined with the analysis of the collision form of two cars, it conforms to the characteristics of skew displacement caused by the stress on the lower left of human tricycles saddle when two cars collide.

　　At the same time, Li’s injury materials show the injury characteristics of his lower limbs and scrotum. Combined with the collision form of two cars and the analysis of the position of two cars and Li, compared with the implementation posture, it is more in line with the injury characteristics formed by Li’s collision with a passenger car in a posture of riding across human tricycles.

　　Based on the above factors, the appraisal opinion issued by the appraiser is: the right front part of the FXXXXX Jeep minibus collided with the left side of human tricycles, an unknown brand without a hanging number plate, and it can be established that Li was riding across the human tricycles at the time of the incident.

　　The appraisal opinion was adopted by the case-handling unit, and both personnel had no objection to the appraisal opinion.

　　Case number:

　　SHSJYW1640932702

Case 4

Chongqing Spiegel Judicial Appraisal Institute conducted an environmental damage appraisal case against a unit that violated land use planning and carried out project construction to destroy cultivated land.

　　Brief introduction of case

　　In 2018, a company built a color steel shed, steel bar processing room, slope protection and other facilities in a project in Qijiang District of Chongqing without approval. According to the field survey, the actual area is 18,523.78 square meters, including 7,212.99 square meters of cultivated land, which is not in line with the overall land use planning in this area. Chongqing Mingjing Judicial Appraisal Institute was entrusted with the judicial appraisal of the damage degree of the cultivated land involved above.

　　The identification of this case involves the confirmation of the facts, types and areas of illegal land occupation. During the appraisal process, the appraisers conducted in-depth and comprehensive surveys for many times, and carefully analyzed the baseline confirmation, damage confirmation conditions, damage confirmation process and causality. According to the information provided by the Qijiang District Planning and Natural Resources Bureau and on-site reconnaissance, the field comparison and analysis compared with the baseline (farmland in the undamaged area around the involved area), combined with laboratory test results, and confirmed the type and quantity of land occupation of the bulldozing and slope protection site involved. The appraisal opinion issued by the appraiser is: after appraisal, a company illegally occupies 10.8195 mu (7,212.99 square meters) > 10 mu of cultivated land for bulldozing and slope protection beyond the planned red line, illegally occupies more than 10 mu of cultivated land other than basic farmland, and illegally occupies a large amount of cultivated land. There is a direct causal relationship between the actions of bulldozing and slope protection and the ecological environment damage in the area involved. There are phenomena of soil layer removal and ground hardening on the cultivated land in the area involved, and the original cultivated layer or topsoil of the land is completely destroyed, and the original planting conditions of the cultivated land are seriously damaged. At the same time, the appraisal agency also provided the entrusting party with a simple repair direction and scheme.

　　The appraisal opinion was adopted by the case-handling unit, which strongly supported the administrative law enforcement work of the case-handling unit.

　　Case number:

　　CQSJYW1657877881