Wang Lixin
On November 10th, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that the risks of real estate finance and local debt were generally controllable.
In my opinion, the current risks related to the real estate industry deserve high attention, but there is no need to be too pessimistic about the development prospects of the industry. In the medium and long term, there is a great demand for improved housing for residents’ families. Chinese-style modernization and new urbanization will bring continuous incremental housing demand, and the reconstruction of villages in megacities under the new model will also bring new opportunities, and the fundamentals supporting the real estate industry to stabilize and improve have not changed.
At the macro level, the policy of stabilizing the economy continues to exert its strength, and residents’ income expectations are improving, which provides strong support for the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. From the GDP growth of 4.9% in the third quarter, it can be seen that China’s economy is recovering well. Although the real estate has not come out of the downturn, the transaction volume of new houses in key first-and second-tier cities has recovered, and the industry is expected to be gradually restored, stabilized and rebounded.
First of all, the real estate policy still has further expectations.Since the end of August, many departments and places in China have intensively introduced policies to moderately optimize and adjust the real estate, and policies such as "recognizing houses without recognizing loans", relaxing purchase restrictions, lowering interest rates, and returning the multi-city land market to "the highest bidder" have been intensively implemented, and their efforts have been significantly enhanced. The continuous use of the policy toolbox "because of the city’s policy" has created conditions for meeting the release of just-needed and improved housing demand, and opened up space for the stabilization of property market transactions in various places.
Judging from the recent statements of the central bank and relevant departments, the idea of relevant financial measures to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in the next stage has been clear. On the one hand, policies such as residents’ housing credit and housing financing still have further expectations, such as reducing residents’ housing purchase costs and increasing housing financing support; On the other hand, the financial supporting policies for the "three major projects" of affordable housing, urban village reconstruction and "flat and emergency" public infrastructure construction are also expected to accelerate, which is expected to play an important role in stabilizing investment in the future, and will also play a positive role in restoring and stabilizing real estate sales.
Secondly, the work of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" has been solidly promoted, and the confidence of the industry has been boosted to some extent.At present, "guaranteed delivery building" is an important event in promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and plays a key role in restoring housing consumption confidence. Since July 2022, when the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference first put forward the task of "guaranteeing the delivery of property", various financial services such as "guaranteeing the delivery of property" special loan and "guaranteeing the delivery of property" loan support plan have followed suit, and relevant departments have also guided commercial banks to provide supporting financing support.
In addition to financial support, local governments and housing enterprises are also paying attention to the reform of the pre-sale system and encouraging the sale of existing homes. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first nine months of this year, the sales area of existing commercial houses nationwide was 130 million square meters, up 21.2% year-on-year, accounting for 17.9% of the total sales area, up 4 percentage points from the end of 2022. Theoretically, the sale of existing homes is the fundamental measure to prevent the unfinished property. Taking some projects in some cities as the pilot of existing home sales can also boost industry confidence and fundamental recovery.
第三，信用风险正在逐步出清，行业基本面逐步改善。进入11月份以来，万科债券出现非理性波动，深圳国资委明确表示支持万科，称其具备足够的安全性。随后，万科、金地于11月9日及10日相继发布赎回及债券兑付公告，市场暂时恢复平静。此外，今年以来，融创中国等出险房企债务重组方案也多顺利通过。
无论是大股东支持，还是化债取得关键进展，大型房企稳住经营基本盘，可助力行业进一步抽丝剥茧地切实改善基本面，从而防范化解房地产领域的金融风险。当然，企业层面也需要逐步向规范化、多元化、轻量化方向转型，以长期视角探寻新发展模式，比如在碳中和、建筑施工、资产管理、养老服务等细分赛道创新商业模式，引领行业升级发展。
树木因相依而生长，星辰因辉映而璀璨。当前房地产行业正在进行重大转型并寻找新的均衡点，希望在各方聚力下，尽快实现从“信心修复”到“行业康复”，步入健康发展新阶段。
图片 | 站酷海洛
制作 | 张文玲
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