The Dangerous B Side of Jaguar Land Rover

An image appeared on the TV shopping show Oriental CJ: Chery Land Rover Discovers Shenxing is on sale for 30% off. Kang Zheng in front of the TV immediately sent a WeChat message to a friend.

"Discovering that Shenxing is now 30% off, do you want to consider it?"

"It’s been a long time since Jaguar Land Rover got 30% off. It’s always been a big discount."

"Then do you want to think about it?"

"I don’t think about it, I don’t think it’s worth preserving and I’m a little worried about the quality."

A hefty profit of 30% is not enough to drive JLR’s sales in China to achieve the expected significant growth.

In the first half of this year, Jaguar Land Rover’s lack of strong performance in various market segments caused it to lose the top spot in the second-tier luxury brand rankings again, and was overtaken by the US luxury car brand Cadillac again.

In the first half of the year, Cadillac firmly locked the fourth place with a performance of 112,325 units, and a growth rate of 39% year-on-year also topped the luxury car brand. Lexus, which is purely imported, riveted the 71,664-unit Jaguar Land Rover with a growth rate of 14% and a score of 68,726 units. The sales gap between the two was only less than 3,000 units.

In the top 10 luxury brand sales, Jaguar Land Rover’s growth rate is only higher than that of Lincoln and BMW. It cannot be ignored that the 71,664 units sold are the combined sales of Jaguar and Land Rover, while the other players in the top 10 rankings are all single brand sales.

If the Jaguar and Land Rover two brands are counted separately, then Jaguar 22,800 sales are lower than Lincoln’s 24,300, ranking 9th; Land Rover 48,800 sales are lower than Volvo, ranking 7th.

Back in time, 730 days ago, Jaguar Land Rover was on the A side of the coin under the spotlight.

At that time, Chery Jaguar Land Rover, which had just localized the first model of Range Rover Evoque in Changshu production base, and Jaguar Land Rover imported car cluster joined forces to maintain the top spot in the "second camp of luxury car brands". The three generals of the domestic car department: Range Rover Evoque, Discovery Shenxing and XFL are all working hard to release light in their respective market segments.

In fact, two years ago, China coincided with a "SUV mania" being staged in this land that has just been activated.

"The SUV market at this time is like a teenager who has just entered adolescence and rushed into a lawn that is growing like crazy, his bones and grass racing upward." Liu Chunxiao, a veteran auto industry analyst, once described the scene with a subtle metaphor.

In 2016, on this open-front, ungrilled grass, Cadillac sold 118,000 units and Jaguar Land Rover sold 119,000.

The difference of 1,000 units did not reverse the coin. But another number that cannot be ignored is that Cadillac’s growth rate for the year was 47.9%.

That gave Jaguar Land Rover a whiff of the burning tip of a crisis, but for a traditional luxury car brand with two "elephant-class" brands, the transition is sometimes not as simple as driving a Land Rover through deep water using an all-terrain feedback system.

To Jaguar Land Rover’s surprise, a dangerous B-face erupted from the nine-speed gearbox as it dropped three gears in a row for acceleration. Cadillac, always fighting as a "follower", was quietly expanding the floor.

In February 2017, Cadillac outsold Jaguar Land Rover (8,581 units) with monthly sales of 9,034 units, an increase of 89.6% year-on-year – this cold and Kafkaesque winter month witnessed the beginning of Cadillac’s year of success while also witnessing the fall of a generation of king Jaguar Land Rover brothers.

In 2017, Cadillac, the American luxury automaker that had been racing for a full 12 months, killed the British luxury car brand Jaguar Land Rover, which had been at the top of the "second-tier luxury brand camp" for many years. With 173,524 units to 146,399 units, it announced a fact: the "ABB + J" pattern that Jaguar Land Rover tried to build in the Chinese luxury car market officially came to an end.

The sales gap between the two luxury brands that are the top bayonets in the second-tier camp has increased sharply from 1,000 units in 2016 to 27,125 units in 2017.

The sales gap near the end point of the 30,000 station made the "C" contestant pursued by the spotlight on the second-tier camp stage more worthy of the name. In the "law of the jungle" where sales determine seating, Cadillac defeated Jaguar Land Rover.

The dangerous B side of Jaguar Land Rover is quietly approaching.

Wu ****** once wrote in "Thirty Years of Turbulence": The mistake of one giant will give birth to another group of giants, and the slight allure of Jaguar Land Rover will give Cadillac behind him a chance to rise up until it overtakes, and also give Lexus, a brand that has always adhered to pure imports and is not domestically produced, a scene that is infinitely close to itself.

The other side of the coin is the deepening of the localization process, the global model factory Changshu manufacturing base has entered the second phase, and the E model (sedan XEL, SUV E-PACE) family has been fully domesticated; the other side is the end point The sales ranking under the premise of increasing preferential intensity continues to decline, and the reason can’t help but make people ponder – what happened to Jaguar Land Rover?

After studying Jaguar Land Rover’s strategy for the Chinese market in recent years, it is not difficult to find that the luxury carmaker, which has two historic brands, has never found an accurate rhythm in product launch.

Specifically, the first is to rely too heavily on the overall contribution value of the Land Rover brand, and the Range Rover Evoque had to hand over the heavy responsibility to the larger 7-seat model after the initial domestic enlightenment dividend was exhausted.

Secondly, the entry-level sedan XEL, which was highly expected under the Jaguar brand, lagged behind in time. In the vacuum outside the domination of BMW 3 Series, Audi A4L and Mercedes-Benz C-Class, Cadillac ATS-L had occupied the vast majority of the market share. The XEL, which emphasized "performance aesthetics", lost to ATS-L, which won word-of-mouth by accelerating performance in the early stage and won the market with huge discounts in the later stage.

According to Chery Jaguar’s previous expectations, XEL should have quickly become the second growth pole after domestic production.

Finally, it failed to capture the dividends of the domestic compact luxury SUV market in time. At a time when the BMW X1 has been replaced, and the Audi Q3 and Mercedes-Benz GLA are still making money from the old models, the late "cub" of E-PACE has just made its first cry on the production line of Changshu Base.

The regular and cold-blooded German footsteps will not be stopped for a moment by the milky voice of E-PACE, but will step down harder in every head-to-head confrontation – not to mention that there are still Lexus UX in a corner of the battlefield at the moment, Cadillac XT4 string arrow is ready to be launched, and Infiniti QX30 is in urgent need of reorganization.

In fact, if the two brands of Jaguar and Land Rover are dissected separately, it will be found that Land Rover is a well-deserved "sales cow" – out of a total of 10,865 units sold in June this year, Jaguar only sold 3,752 units, and Land Rover alone owned 7,113 units.

Four domestic models sold a total of 7,640 units, of which the Jaguar XEL and XFL together contributed 2,809 units, and Land Rover Discovery and Range Rover Evoque contributed 4,831 units.

In the first six months of this year, it was found that Shenxing was a standout in sales, accounting for nearly 30% of the total 71,164 units with 20,175 units. The Range Rover Evoque synchronized a slight decline, and the XFL was basically flat with last year.

The self-proclaimed "ABB-34C" terminator Jaguar XEL sold only 6,750 units in the first half of this year, its rival Mercedes-Benz C-Class sold 81,700 units, Audi A4L sold 79,900 units, BMW 3 Series sold 66,500 units, the same as the second-tier camp Cadillac ATS-L sold 30,200 units, 4.48 times that of Jaguar XEL; Lexus ES sold 29,200 units, 4.33 times that of Jaguar XEL; Volvo S60L sold 10,200 units, 1.51 times that of Jaguar XEL, and even the marginalized Infiniti Q50L sold 9,451 units, surpassing Jaguar XEL by 2,700 units.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Market Information Association, said in a statement that "after Jaguar Land Rover’s localization, the main models have not formed a bright spot model with a special star. They are still mainly niche products, and there is still a clear gap with ABB’s super performance."

Renowned auto industry analyst Li Yanwei believes that in terms of model sales, it is found that Shenxing is the largest model sold by dealers. From January to June, the cumulative sales volume was nearly 20,000, an increase of 8.9%, but other models still have room for growth. At the same time, "The average discount rate of Jaguar brand is around 20%, and Land Rover is around 14%."

The relatively unreasonable sales structure of the model makes Jaguar Land Rover lose itself in the high-growth and high-pressure market: the Range Rover Evoque, which should be responsible for broadening the circle of potential owners of Land Rover, is far less popular in sales than the "tool car" attributes and end point benefits.

A luxury brand’s full-line sales are supported by a seven-seat SUV model, which is itself a debatable oddity.

Jaguar XEL, which intends to break through the "ABB-34C" intensive firepower blockade with a "performance tone" that is not yet familiar to most consumers, has gradually returned to silence after spending the "fan-like" highlights endorsed by Chan Weiting.

Similarly, there are two sphinx mysteries hanging over Jaguar Land Rover: "the end point discount is large" and "the quality is not stable enough".

In many cases, "sales" and "offers" have long served as a parallel interweaving antidote and poison, the latter widely regarded as one of the most effective but also the most damaging means of alleviating the anxiety of the former.

In a 1979 interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun, Sony’s founder, Akio Morita, argued that any product aimed at China should adhere to the principles of "simplicity, practicality and cheapness," a principle that propelled Sony from ordinary manufacturers into the mantle of masters and still applies to the Chinese market 40 years later.

The models under the Jaguar Land Rover brand are all in line with the word "simple and practical" to a considerable extent, such as the "typical tool SUV" that is popular with consumers – Chery Land Rover Discovery Divine Line and the Chery Jaguar XFL, which is the "elegant long-wheelbase mid-class car". However, in terms of pricing strategy, the Jaguar Land Rover brand has long been damaged by the "pressure" of dealer discounts. The impression of the brand on the consumer side has been damaged.

Therefore, there is the scene at the beginning of this article.

After the on-site visit of Interface Auto, it was found that such "big" discounts are everywhere:

For example, the manufacturer’s guide price is 464,800 Chery Land Rover found Shenxing 2018 HSE version, the end point preliminary quotation at many dealers in Beijing is just over 300,000, and the comprehensive discount exceeds 160,000, which is equivalent to a 6.5% discount for the manufacturer’s guide price; The end point preliminary quotation in Shanghai is 340,000, and the comprehensive discount has also reached 125,000, which is equivalent to a 7.3% discount for the manufacturer’s guide price.

And when Interface Auto communicated with the relevant dealers, the other party said that there is still a lot of room for negotiation on the preferential amount. "The price discount ordered on the spot can exceed 130,000, and there will be some maintenance part gifts." An authorized Jaguar Land Rover dealer located outside the outer ring line informed Interface Auto by phone.

This "price for market" behavior is still prevalent in the Chery Jaguar brand, take the sales as Chery Jaguar XFL as an example, the manufacturer’s guide price is 494,800 2.0T top matching models in the Beijing market comprehensive discount more than 150,000, equivalent to 6.30% off the manufacturer’s guide price; in the Tianjin and Hebei markets near Beijing have also made more than 100,000 price concessions.

Such a huge discount is undoubtedly self-destructive for luxury brands, and the Cadillac XT5, which is close to the price range and is the second-tier luxury camp, will also provide a certain amount of end point discounts, but the discount is far less than Jaguar Land Rover.

The interface car survey found that, for example, the manufacturer’s guide price is 419,900 28T top models, and the discounts given by the Beijing and Shanghai markets are about 60,000 yuan. And the Audi A6L, which is also in the mid-class car market segment and has not been replaced for many years, has only about 100,000 in the northbound market.

According to the survey results of "Automobile Dealer Inventory" (inventory coefficient = ending inventory/current sales volume) released by the China Automobile Dealers Association in July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in June was 1.93, an increase of 10% year-on-year and 21% month-on-month. The inventory level is above the warning line.

Jaguar Land Rover’s inventory coefficient was 2.5, higher than the dealer composite index of 0.57, making it the only luxury brand among the 13 brands with more than two months of inventory depth in June.

The China Automobile Dealers Association said that the inventory coefficient should be between 0.8 and 1.2 according to the international practice of the same industry, reflecting that the inventory is within a reasonable range; the inventory coefficient > 1.5 reflects that the inventory has reached a warning level and needs attention; the inventory coefficient > 2.5 reflects that the inventory is too high, and the operating pressure and risk are very large.

SAIC-GM officials said in an interview with Interface Auto that Cadillac’s sales growth does not follow the "price-for-market" route.

In addition to the brand loss caused by the large discount range at the end point, Jaguar Land Rover’s tradition of quality reputation is not good.

In the recall announcement issued in 2017, the Jaguar brand initiated a total of 8 recalls, with 63,929 units recalled; the Land Rover brand recalled 5 times, with 42,133 units. The two brands recalled a total of 106,062 vehicles in 2017, accounting for 73% of their total sales in the Chinese market that year (data source: AQSIQ announcement).

As of July this year, the number of Jaguar Land Rover recalls has reached 26,307 units, including imported Range Rover Evoque convertible, Range Rover Star, Jaguar XE, Jaguar XF, Jaguar F-PACE, etc., as well as some domestic Range Rover Evoque, Land Rover Discovery and Jaguar XFL.

The recall is due to supplier issues that may result in incomplete welding of the engine fuel rail end cover, which in extreme cases can cause fuel leakage. If the leaking fuel comes into contact with high temperatures, it may increase the risk of fire.

In fact, Jaguar Land Rover’s reputation for quality control and reliability has reached a "consensus" on the consumer side that spreads like a chronic toxin for a long time.

The quality level after being produced by Chery has risen in the process of continuous maturation of the production line, but there is still a gap between the high level of "luxury brands" in the hearts of ordinary car buyers.

In the 2017 New Car Quality Study (IQS) rankings released by J.D. Power (Jundi) China, the number of 100-car problems (PP100) of Jaguar and Land Rover brands is the same as that of Cadillac, both higher than the industry-level 86PP100, and Lexus, which forms a competitive relationship with Jaguar Land Rover, ranks second with 78PP100, second only to Porsche.

But in 2016, Land Rover ranked fourth in luxury cars with a score of 85PP100, while in 2014, Land Rover had only 49 quality problems per 100 new cars, higher than Lexus’ 55.

From the perspective of the localization process, Jaguar Land Rover’s first-half performance was not without eye-catching. After using the Chery Range Rover Evoque to successfully figure out the way in the localization of production, Chery Land Rover discovered the magic line, and Chery Jaguar XFL and XEL began to be shipped to the country from the Changshu production base.

From the comparison of the number of domestic models, Jaguar Land Rover is on par with FAW-Volkswagen-Audi, which has been enjoying the Chinese market for many years. However, almost every domestic model under the Audi brand has the ability to outperform competitors in the market segment, whether it is A6L, A4L and A3 in the car architecture, or Q5 and Q3 in the SUV architecture. However, Chery Jaguar Land Rover’s models have always been unable to consistently hit the door of car buyers. Instead, they have increasingly developed a Cartesian skepticism due to large discounts and quality defects.

Now, with the rise of Cadillac and Lexus, the map of China’s luxury car second camp has begun to be rewritten, while Jaguar Land Rover is more like a wandering Rubik’s Cube. The way out is obvious, but the reality is a bit messy.