Last trading week (November 6-10), soda ash futures rose again, which attracted great attention from investors. The insiders believe that the recent increase of soda ash disk exceeds market expectations, and the main reason is still the disturbance of the supply side. There is still the possibility of variables in the supply side in the market outlook, and the disk fluctuation is still expected to be large. It is recommended to pay attention to the current price change of heavy soda, the resumption of production of individual devices and the production of Yuanxing.
On November 10th, 2401, the main contract of soda ash futures, rose all the way from the opening, and hit the daily limit at the end of the session, with an increase of 10.04%, closing at 2126 yuan/ton and returning above the 2000 yuan/ton mark. The weekly increase is close to 19%. Looking at the extended time period, the main contract of soda ash futures has recorded gains in all trading days since this month, achieving eight consecutive gains, with a cumulative increase of nearly 23%.
Zhongtai Futures believes that the main reason for the sharp rise of soda ash disk is still the disturbance of the supply side. Last Thursday, the market news spread that some alkali plants in Qinghai will further reduce production. Under the low inventory, alkali plants in Qinghai began to close orders, and some alkali plants expected to raise their quotations. Due to the unexpected decrease in the supply end and the fact that the third line of Yuanxing has not yet been fed, the market’s expectations for the supply and demand of soda ash in recent months have changed. If the subsequent environmental protection and limited production in Qinghai continue and the release of new production capacity is less than expected, the heavy alkali inventory of soda plant will continue to go to the warehouse at a low level, and the soda ash industry will once again face the phenomenon of tight supply, and market panic may drive the disk to rise sharply.
Nanhua futures analyzed that the recent increase in soda ash exceeded market expectations. On the one hand, it may be because the short positions were too crowded before, and the increment brought by the future supply side was traded in advance. When the supply side suffered unexpected losses, the rebound market driven by capital sentiment would be particularly significant; On the other hand, it is the improvement of macro-mood, but this is only the mood driven by phased funds. The supply of soda ash is very certain, and the industrial supply is about to return to normal, and the overall downward trend remains unchanged.
According to market rumors that the third and fourth phases of Yuanxing Energy will be put into production later, Yuanxing Energy said that the third production line is scheduled to be put into production in late November, and the feeding time of the fourth production line will be determined according to the trial run of the third production line. At present, the soda plant of the company is running normally.
Looking forward to the market outlook, can the price of soda ash stabilize? Dongzheng Futures believes that, in terms of futures price, although the market is in the stage of weakening long-term drive and strengthening short-term drive, investors are advised to do a good job in position management because of the large discount rate of far-month contracts and the strong performance of coal prices, and there is still the possibility of variables on the supply side.
Nanhua futures said that, on the whole, the continuous accumulation pattern can be basically determined, and the supply of soda ash will gradually change from loose to surplus in the case of continuous release of new production and no explosive growth of downstream demand. On the face of it, the current main contract of soda ash should not be too bearish in the short term, and the market trading sentiment is obviously reduced. Although the positions remain high, the trading volume is obviously reduced. In the near future, it is suggested to pay attention to the current price change of heavy caustic soda, the resumption of production of individual units and the commissioning of Yuanxing.
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