年度归档 2026年3月14日

CCTV News:Wearing navy flame-retardant work clothes, quietly sitting on the edge of the console, wearing a mask and welding cap, a right-hand welding torch and a left-hand welding wire, Liu Hongguang slowly moved the tools in his hand to the joint of the test piece on the console, stared at it for a few seconds and closed his eyes.

Press the control switch of the welding torch, the silvery white arc lights up, the welding torch of the right hand slowly translates, and the left hand rhythmically adds a little bit of wire. After about 20 seconds, the arc is put away and the welding is over. Liu Hongguang opened his eyes, looked at the symmetrical "fish scale pattern" shining with metallic luster at the joint of the test piece, and nodded slightly … …

Liu Hongguang, the deputy head of the welding team and the first "Chief Technician" appraised and hired by China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation, showed his stunt — — "Blind welding".

Liu Hongguang, Welder of Rocket Engine Shell

Become famous at a young age: from an apprentice to a chief technician

When I first joined the work, there were many people and few jobs. Generally speaking, I may not get a chance to weld alone after three or four years as an apprentice. In order to master the welding technology better, Master stood by and watched all the time while welding, never letting go of every detail. After the work, use scattered time to find some scraps to practice. During his apprenticeship, he welded countless test pieces. At that time, colleagues often joked with him: "Xiao Liu is thin as corn stalks, and his little face is baked into potato skins!" Hard work is hard work, and day after day’s practice has enabled him to master solid basic skills.

In 1998, the factory held the first mentoring activity at that time, and was lucky enough to become a mentor with Master Chen Yong. With the guidance and help of Master Chen Yong, Liu Hongguang won the first place in theoretical examination and practical operation, becoming the first skilled worker in the history of the factory to be directly promoted from a junior worker to a senior worker.

Welders are sometimes regarded as "hard work without wisdom, hard work without showing their faces". This also reflects the monotony of this type of work and the lack of hard work for others. Sometimes in some workplaces with narrow space, when welding a workpiece, one posture should be kept for a whole day, and when it is over, one usually can’t stand up straight. In summer, the flame emitted by the welding torch is more than 200 degrees Celsius, which is basically an arc roast on the face and a "sauna" on the body; In winter, sometimes you need to lie on cold products, and your joints are often numb and blue. Welders also have another feature, which affects the whole body, sometimes breathing or shaking their arms will affect the overall quality of the weld. Once, when welding products, a large piece of fiery red welding slag fell on the protective clothing. At first, I didn’t notice it. When I felt my legs burning, the thick clothes had burned a hole the size of a bowl. Even so, I could only gently bounce off the welding slag on my clothes and continue to finish the work at hand.

"Because of the particularity of welding work, the welding torch in his hand is the life of aerospace products, and he must keep 100% concentration at all times, feel every weld with his heart, and condense every solder joint with his heart", which is the principle he has practiced for many years. In 2000, Liu Hongguang participated in the fourth welder technical competition in Inner Mongolia and won the Excellence Award. He was named "Excellent Young Post Expert in the Region". In 2002, he won the third place in the first China Aerospace Science and Technology Industry Vocational Skills Competition, and in the same year, he was awarded the honorary title of "National Technical Expert"; In 2004, he was awarded the position of youth expert by Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation; In 2005, he was awarded the title of "Young Master in Central Enterprises" and "Chief Technician" in 2009.

Ensure the weld is perfect from the inside out.

After painstaking study, a weld is a lifeline.

As the heart of aerospace products, engine welding is an important part. "Every weld is a lifeline, and one weld will be qualified." In his work, Liu Hongguang never let go of every detail and every seam. He kept exploring, studying and improving, and summed up the working method of "looking, smelling, asking and cutting" in his years of work.

"Looking" means "observing", which is the first key in work. Up to now, Liu Hongguang still remembers the embarrassment when he first entered the factory. When he first came, he couldn’t handle anything, even the welding torch was unstable, and there was no product to be used for welding. The best way to learn was to watch the master’s work. Whenever the master did a job, he stared at every detail, observing the master’s "when to get off the gun, where to start, and how long to weld", all of which were memorized by heart, as if he were more devoted and more than the master.

"Although there is a molding process in welding, sometimes the technique is very important, and skilled welding feeling is an indispensable condition to ensure the quality of products", which is Liu Hongguang’s second secret "cutting", which means "practice". Due to the high quality of aerospace products and the particularity of materials, in the first few years as an apprentice, we can only use the scrap of different types of old steel plates and covered electrode for welding practice. In practice, we can weld test pieces from multiple angles and directions, and constantly explore and accumulate experience. In order to complete the welding task of a difficult product, he improved the welding gun nozzle, used several abandoned non-standard nozzles, and after several days of polishing, he ground out the nozzle suitable for welding this type of product.

According to the traditional practice, for welding a certain type of product, the technicians should first work out the process, such as how much current and voltage to use, what kind of welding wire to choose, how fast to add wire, and what welding method to use, and this process is relatively fixed. But in fact, the process often gives a range of parameters, and which value is the best condition depends on practice. Old masters used to rely on feelings and experience, but Liu Hongguang combined these feelings and experiences with every production practice, and defined more specific parameters for many processes. According to these parameters and processes provided by him, he helped colleagues to weld finished products directly.

Liu Hongguang’s third secret is "smell". Learning from books is his persistent habit all the year round. In my own home, the small study is full of all kinds of books, most of which are welding. In the past few years, he used his spare time to teach himself a large number of books on welding, machining, science and technology, technology, etc., and made 20 Yu Ben in his work notes alone, and successfully completed the courses of RTVU and obtained the undergraduate diploma. As the saying goes, "there must be a teacher in a threesome." At work, always learn from others and practice, and learn creatively, break the usual thinking habits and work patterns, learn from others’ unique skills and turn them into their own skills.

"Asking" means "thinking", which is the fourth secret of Liu Hongguang. When the solid power cause is not completed, it will always be in progress, and new problems will be constantly encountered in the work. It is his working habit to keep asking questions to difficult problems and bottlenecks for many years. It is precisely because of this work habit that he explored and developed a variety of welding methods according to the characteristics of different models of products.

There is a notebook in his workshop locker with work summary, process optimization record, product defect solution, etc. The latest record is about the analysis of weld cracks detected by a certain igniter in the later stage. This is an old problem that has existed for more than 10 years. Liu Hongguang took the unqualified products back and dissected them to find out the reasons. After improving the method, the late pass rate of this type of products increased from about 30% to over 90%. 　 　 　 　

Here, I have to mention Liu Hongguang’s unique skill "blind welding". His best manual welding needs two hands to cooperate. The distance between the welding wire and the tungsten electrode at the top of the welding torch is calculated in millimeters, and the distance between the tungsten electrode and the weldment is also kept at about 1 millimeter. If it is far away, it will affect the welding effect and even lead to welding failure. "Blind welding" means that the grasp of this 1 mm distance depends not on the eyes, but only on the feeling on the hands and the change of welding sound.

No matter how irregular weldments and materials are difficult to control, Liu Hongguang can finally "give" them a weld with a symmetrical and beautiful appearance and a uniform and dense structure inside. This kind of weld looks like pieces of fish scales stacked at random, and the width of each piece is basically the same, so it is called "fish scale pattern".

In August 2014, the "Jiake" Cup International Welding Skills Competition was held, with 28 central enterprises sending players and 11 foreign teams. In this competition, Liu Hongguang performed the stunt "blind welding". In the end, Liu Hongguang won the praise of foreign judges with his impeccable performance. Several Russian experts were very interested in his blind welding technology, and kept taking pictures of his English operation introduction with their cameras. For Liu Hongguang, a short performance of 10 minutes condensed his first-line welding practice and innovation for more than 20 years.

Skill inheritance, master studio transmits skills and brings talents.

In 2015, the factory established the "Liu Hongguang Skills Master Studio" named after Liu Hongguang. In 2016, Liu Hongguang Skills Master Studio was selected as the first batch of employee innovation studios in the national defense post and telecommunications industry in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. After the establishment of the studio, Liu Hongguang’s work became busier. In addition to doing his own job well, he took the inheritance of skills as another important mission. After using his work, he put every technological innovation into words for colleagues in the studio to learn and communicate. Over the years, the summary of all aspects has accumulated nearly 100 thousand words.

With the help of the studio platform, we organized many activities, such as the exhibition of skilled talents’ unique skills, the "Maker Salon" for employees, the promotion of innovative achievements, and technical research. Master Liu Hongguang’s studio has achieved hardware, team, projects and achievements, and has become an "innovative home for employees" that plays the role of model workers, unites the strength of employees, cultivates innovative spirit, incubates innovative achievements and guides employees to innovate and create efficiency.

In many years’ work, Liu Hongguang has trained 1 welder stunt technician, 2 senior technician successors, 2 technicians and 7 senior workers in China Aerospace Science and Industry Group through various forms such as mentoring and technical guidance.

After 27 years of persistence, we have left a series of solid footprints: national technical expert, national "youth post expert", Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region "excellent youth post expert", "central enterprise youth post expert", chief technician of group company, and "Top Ten Youth" of Sixth Hospital & HELIP; … "For a complete solid rocket engine shell, welding is only one of the unobtrusive links, but if there is a problem with the accuracy of this link, the consequences will be unimaginable." Liu Hongguang said seriously. (Source: China National Defense Posts and Telecommunications Union)

Beijing Youth Daily-Knowing the news of WeChat WeChat official account, on November 25th, Committee member the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and Liu He, Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China published a signed article in People’s Daily-"Accelerating the Construction of a New Development Pattern with Domestic Macrocycle as the Main Body and Domestic and International Dual Cycle Promoting each other".

The article mentioned, "It is necessary to adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living, not for speculation, adhere to both renting and purchasing, and improve the long-term rental policy to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.. "

Zheng Zhijun noticed that recently, including Liu He, two The Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) and four members of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee published signed articles in People’s Daily:

On November 18th, The Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) and Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China published an article entitled "Guiding Principles for Economic and Social Development during the Tenth Five-Year Plan".

On November 19th, The Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) and Han Zheng, Vice Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China published an article: "The long-term goal of basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035".

On November 20th, members of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, Secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee, Director of the General Office of the Central Committee and Director of president Office published an article: "Insist on and Improve the System and Mechanism of the Party Leading Economic and Social Development".

On November 23rd, members of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, Secretary of the Secretariat of the Central Committee and Minister of Propaganda Department of the Central Committee Huang Kunming published an article: "Promoting the Construction of a Powerful Socialist Culture". On November 24th, members of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Wang Chen, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress published an article: "Promoting the Self-improvement and Development of Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s Political System".

On November 25th, members of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and Liu He, Vice Premier of the People’s Republic of China published an article: "Accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with domestic macro-cycle as the main body and domestic and international dual-cycle promoting each other".

These articles have revealed many signals.

Each has its own emphasis.

From the content point of view, the above six articles are all intended to "study and implement the spirit of the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee".

But the focus is different.

Among them, Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China, as well as Vice Premier Han Zheng and Liu He of the State Council, all focused on economic issues.

Ding Xuexiang, director of the General Office of the Central Committee, put forward requirements for leading cadres at all levels in the article; Huang Kunming, Minister of Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China, focused on "building a strong socialist cultural country"; Wang Chen, Vice Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress talked about "Socialism with Chinese characteristics’s political system".

Each of these articles is worthy of serious study and reading. Today, Zheng Zhijun wants to focus on two points, one is economic issues, and the other is leading cadres.

economy

Look at the economy first.

Li Keqiang’s article focuses on the guiding principles of economic and social development during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, Han Zheng talks about "basically realizing the long-term goal of socialist modernization by 2035", and Liu He talks about "accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other".

Li Keqiang believes that under the complicated and changeable international economic and political situation, for such a large economic volume, in a certain sense,Steady is progress..

Han Zheng mentioned innovation.

"The problem of insufficient development imbalance in China is still outstanding, and the task of reforming key links in key areas is still arduous, especially the innovation ability does not meet the requirements of high-quality development.The situation that key core technologies are controlled by people has not been fundamentally changed. Many fields, such as high-end chips and basic components, are stuck in the neck. Under the situation that the development of science and technology is facing external repression and containment, it is urgent to speed up the pace of independent innovation.. "

Liu He, who published today, focused on "fully implementing the decision-making and deployment to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern".

Liu He mentioned the current domestic and international background at the beginning of the article.

He wrote, "The world today is experiencing a great change that has never happened in a hundred years. China’s development is still in an important period of strategic opportunities, but there are new developments and changes in both opportunities and challenges.Many of the problems we encounter are long-term and many of them have never been experienced before, so we need to deepen our understanding and deal with them effectively from a strategic perspective.. "

Liu He believes that building a new development pattern is a development issue, but it is essentially a reform issue.

"We must use reform thinking and methods to form a dynamic market subject, establish an effective incentive mechanism and create an institutional environment to encourage innovation.Remove the system, concept and interest fetters that hinder the smooth flow of the domestic big cycle and the domestic and international double cycle.”。

Liu He’s article also talked about "scientific and technological innovation", "supply creates and leads demand", "finance better serves the real economy", "new urbanization and coordinated development between urban and rural areas" and "expanding employment and raising income level".

Some details are also worth pondering.

Zheng Zhijun noted that Liu He mentioned in the article that investment should play a key role in optimizing the supply structure, expand the investment space, optimize the investment structure, and promote the equipment renewal and technological transformation of enterprises.Promote the construction of a number of major projects with strong foundation, increased functions and long-term benefits..

Liu He believes that the real estate industry affects investment and consumption, which is related to people’s livelihood and development.

"insist on it.The house is for living, not for speculation.ofPositioning, adhere to both rent and purchase, and make policies according to the city.Improve the long-term rental policyTo promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. "

The Party’s Leadership over Economic and Social Development

"Party, government, military and civilian studies, east, west, north and south, the party is leading everything.Strengthen the party’s leadership over economic and social development, is the proper meaning of upholding the party’s overall leadership. "

On November 20th, members of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, Secretary of the Central Secretariat, Director of the General Office of the Central Committee and Director of president Office Ding Xuexiang issued a document.

In the article, Ding Xuexiang mentioned that the more severe and complicated the situation is, the more contradictory risks and challenges are increasing, and the stronger the leadership core is, the more stable and far-reaching the economy and the social stability and harmony are ensured.

Zheng Zhijun noticed that Ding Xuexiang also talked about some current problems in his article.

He wrote that at present, the implementation of the "two maintenances" in the economic and social fields is generally good, but there are also some noteworthy problems:

Some people think that "two maintenance" is mainly a matter of political attitude and has little to do with the specific work of economic and social development.

Some express their views on the decision-making and deployment of the CPC Central Committee quickly and with high tone, butWhen local interests, departmental interests, overall interests and overall interests conflict, when the requirements of the central authorities are inconsistent with their own customary thinking and practices, they hesitate and are not determined enough to implement them, and even engage in "policies from above and countermeasures from below" in a different way.

Ding Xuexiang believes that all these problems should be prevented and corrected.

This article also puts forward requirements for leading cadres at all levels, such as:

It is necessary to enhance the courage of innovation, dare to be the first to eat crabs, and not stick to the old ways and stand still.

In-depth study of major issues in the economic and social fields, on how to accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system, how to accelerate the self-reliance of science and technology, how to promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial chain supply chain, how to promote the modernization of agriculture and rural areas, how to improve people’s quality of life, how to firmly hold the bottom line of safe development, etc., comprehensively understand the situation and find the key points.Think clearly about the countermeasures

To strengthen the economic security risk early warning, prevention and control mechanism and capacity building, to achieveImportant industries, infrastructure, strategic resources, major science and technology and other key areas are safe and controllable.

Ding Xuexiang also wrote that to coordinate development and safety, we should not only put the weight on safety and put development in a secondary position, but should give more consideration to safety factors in development and strive to promote high-quality development while ensuring safety.

“It is wrong to ignore potential risks and challenges for development; It is also wrong to hold back on development for safety.. "

Original title: Two The Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) and four members of the Politburo issued articles continuously, revealing new signals.

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Memory is an important branch of the semiconductor industry. After the continuous decline in 2015 and 2016, the global memory market ushered in an explosion in 2017, with a growth rate of 60% and sales exceeding 120 billion US dollars, accounting for 30.1% of the total value of the global semiconductor market.

Among them, due to insufficient supply, the price of DRAM (per Gb) increased by 47% in 2017, and the market scale reached 72.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 74% compared with 2016, and it continued to maintain the first market share in the field of semiconductor memory (ahead of NAND Flash, etc.).

In this issue of intelligent internal reference, we recommend the DRAM industry research report from Northeast Securities. Starting from the market demand and competition pattern, we will take stock of the development trend of the industrial chain and the possible changes in the supply pattern brought about by the release of domestic production capacity.

The following is the dry goods presented by intelligent internal reference finishing:

▲ Proportion of branch sales of semiconductor products

The main function of memory is to store programs and all kinds of data, and it can automatically access programs or data at high speed during the operation of the computer. It is a device with "memory" function.

According to the report of the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Association, in 2017, memory sales reached a record high, exceeding $120 billion, accounting for 30.1% of the total value of the global semiconductor market. The main reason is that DRAM (the most common system memory) and NAND Flash will start from the second half of 2016.Out of stock and cause price increase.

▲ Classification of memory

▲ semiconductor memory market classification

In 2017, the average selling price of DRAM increased by 77% year-on-year, and the total sales value reached 72 billion US dollars, up by 74% year-on-year; The average selling price of NAND Flash increased by 38% year-on-year, and the total sales reached 49.8 billion US dollars, up by 44% year-on-year. NOR Flash is $4.3 billion.

▲DRAM price change trend

The sharp rise in the prices of the three major memories led to a 58% increase in the global memory market.For the first time, memory has surpassed the largest proportion of logic circuits over the years and become the branch with the highest proportion of sales in the global semiconductor market., occupies an extremely important position in the industry.

▲ Global distribution of semiconductor products

From the perspective of regional distribution of global markets, Asia-Pacific and other regions accounted for 60.6% in 2017, up 18.9% year-on-year; North America accounted for 21.2%, up 31.9% year-on-year; The market share of semiconductor products in Europe was 9.3%, a year-on-year increase of 16.3%; The market share of Japanese semiconductor products was 8.9%, up 12.6% year-on-year.

Northeast Securities pointed out that there are two main reasons why the Asia-Pacific region has become the world’s largest semiconductor consumer market: First, the proportion of China products in the Asia-Pacific region has increased year by year, and the proportion in 2016 reached a record high of 92.4%; Second, the product scale of China has increased year by year, and the growth rate has been higher than the overall level of the Asia-Pacific region and other regions for several consecutive years, which has effectively boosted the growth of the entire Asia-Pacific region.

▲ Comparison between China and Asia Pacific and other regions

From the perspective of market scale, the most mainstream memories at present are DRAM, NAND Flash and NOR Flash, especially the first two, which account for about 95% of all semiconductor memories.

▲ Performance comparison of mainstream memory

In some fields, new types of memory have emerged. From the current results, RRAM has the advantages of large capacity, high speed (reading and writing time < 10ns) and low energy consumption. Compared with other new storage technologies, it is compatible with CMOS technology and is considered as a possible choice to replace RAM.

However, considering the serious device-level variability of the new memory, andDRAM has high cost performance, mature technology and scale advantage, and it is expected that it will be difficult to be replaced in the next 5-10 years.

▲SDRAM performance comparison

As an upgrade of DRAM, SDRAM (Synchronous Dynamic Random Access Memory) has gradually become the standard memory configuration of PC.

SDRAM uses a single system clock to synchronize all address data and control signals by adding synchronization control logic to the existing standard dynamic memory. Using SDRAM can not only improve the system performance, but also simplify the design and provide high-speed data transmission. At present, SDRAM has gone through five generations from its development to now, and it has realized dual-channel four-time synchronous dynamic random access memory.

▲ The world’s smallest DRAM chip

From the point of view of process technology, DRAM memory has entered the 10nm stage.

At present, Samsung has adopted the 20nm process on a large scale and took the lead in mass production of the 18nm process; SK Hynix is mainly based on 25nm process, and has introduced 21nm process; At present, Meguiar’s process is mainly 30nm, and the 20nm process has entered the stage of improving yield.

By the end of 2017, Samsung has developed the world’s smallest dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chip, and adopted a 10nm process to continue to expand its technological lead over competitors. At the same time, it will convert most existing DRAM production into 10nm chips in 2018.

▲ Comparison between ▲3D DRAM and 2D DRAM

In packaging, 3D DRAM technology is on the rise.

Because the planar miniaturization of DRAM is approaching the limit step by step and expanding to the vertical direction, after 18/16nm, it is no longer advantageous in cost and performance to continue to reduce the size in two dimensions because of the inability to continue to reduce the film thickness and the unsuitability of using high dielectric constant materials and electrodes.

3D DRAM technology, or 3D packaging, uses TSV to stack multiple chips together, which can realize high-density capacity in a loose size and reduce parasitic resistance-capacitance and delay crosstalk. With the improvement of electronic products’ requirements for DRAM capacity and performance, the proportion of 3D DRAM will show an upward trend in the future.

▲ Market share of ▲DRAM manufacturers

The soaring price of DRAM drove the global semiconductor output value to exceed 400 billion US dollars in 2017. Judging from the current global market share of DRAM, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are the three giants in the market, and these three have recently been accused of manipulating DRAM prices in the United States.

According to the data released by IHS Markit, in the third quarter of 2017, Samsung (44.5%) and SK Hynix (27.9%), two giants in the Korean semiconductor industry, accounted for 72.4% of the global DRAM market, followed by Micron Technology (22.9%), nanya technology (2.2%) and Winbond Electronics (0.8%).

▲ Samsung DRAM capacity change

From the current technological development, South Korea’s Samsung Electronics is still ahead of competitors such as SK Hynix and Micron. In addition to actively expanding the output of memory, developing advanced process (second generation 10nm 8Gb DDR4), accelerating the development plan of its next generation DRAM chip and system, and ensuring its leading position in the market, Samsung is also actively developing the foundry business of wafers, which is regarded as a new growth power in the semiconductor field.

▲SK Hynix’s revenue ratio

SK Hynix benefited from the strong demand in the global server market and the rising price of mobile products, and the Q4 market performed well in 2017. In the future, SK Hynix will meet the growing market demand by introducing new technologies and processes into servers and SSD products, and will expand the capacity of 1xnm DRAM and apply it to PC, mobile devices and server products.

▲SK Hynix and Micron DRAM revenue ratio

In terms of Micron Technology, considering that the memory market is better than expected, the revenue target for Q2 in 2018 will be raised from the original 6.8 billion to 7.2 billion dollars to 7.35 billion dollars. In addition, Micron plans to use advanced technological advantages to reduce costs and strengthen its competitiveness in the market. It is expected that 1xnm DRAM products will be provided by the end of 2018.

▲ Chip quantity forecast in 2017-2018

From the supply side, the capacity growth of DRAM is limited, and Moore’s Law will slow down.

At present, Samsung and SK Hynix, two major Korean manufacturers, are stepping on the accelerator in the pace of expanding production, including Samsung’s P1 plant and Line 15 production line in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, and SK Hynix’s M14 production line. At the same time, Meguiar’s Fab 15 and Fab 16 in Hiroshima also have plans to expand DRAM production, but the increase in production capacity still mainly depends on two Korean manufacturers.

According to the latest factory scale of the three companies, the global chip production capacity in 2017 is about 1100K K. DRAMeXchange predicts that by 2018, Samsung and SK Hynix will increase their production capacity by about 20%, and Micron’s production capacity will increase by 10%. It is estimated that the global chip production capacity will be around 1200K every quarter.

▲DRAM manufacturer’s process progress

The main reason for the slowdown in the growth rate of DRAM production capacity is that the yield of DRAM can not be effectively controlled as the process size becomes smaller and smaller. At the same time, the annual production capacity of EUV lithography equipment is extremely limited, which makes it difficult for DRAM process nodes to break through, and the process schedules of various manufacturers are forced to be postponed again and again. Coupled with the seller’s leading DRAM market and the emergence of new non-volatile memory technology, it has further caused the global DRAM leading enterprises to upgrade their technology and reduce their willingness to expand production.

On the demand side, the structural growth of mobile terminals, servers and PCs in the three major markets of DRAM still exists. At the same time, 5G commercial nodes are getting closer and closer, which will drive demand to accelerate.

▲ Market share of global and domestic mobile phone manufacturers

In terms of mobile terminals, the average storage capacity of DRAM in mobile phones is maintained at an annual growth rate of 10%-20%. Combined with the growth of the mobile phone market (the stable replacement cycle of 1.5 billion units per year), it is estimated that the demand for DRAM in mobile terminals will increase by 18.7% in 2018, and it will continue to concentrate on domestic machine brands.

The commercialization of 5G is just around the corner in 2020. In the future, the development of cloud computing and IDC will require massive data storage. Therefore, the server will have a long-term growth driving force in terms of system shipment and single system DRAM capacity improvement. It is estimated that the growth rate of server demand for DRAM will be 26.1% in 2018 (the growth rate of shipments is 2.9%, and the capacity of a single system is expected to increase to 184GB), which will become the fastest growing product type.

The PC market remains stable, and the demand for DRAM will also maintain a relatively stable and small growth trend. It is estimated that the market growth rate in the PC field will be 6.6% in 2018.

▲DRAM price change trend

In general,The expansion of DRAM is trapped by technical bottlenecks and the monopoly of international manufacturers.In 2018-2020, the global bit growth will continue to hover at the historical low level of around 20%. However, the market demand for downstream terminal applications will continue to rise moderately, especially the terminal brands will continue to concentrate on domestic brands, resulting inThe demand of domestic mobile phones for DRAM products has increased regionally.At the same time, 5G, cloud computing, IDC, etc. will drive the server application to grow substantially.

Northeast Securities Judgment:From 2018 to 2020, DRAM products will be in a continuous price increase cycle.. It should be pointed out that most of the mainland DRAM production capacity will start mass production after 2019, and if the process goes smoothly, it will be possible to alleviate the supply and demand gap of DRAM.

▲IDM mode

Different from the vertical division of labor mode, the memory industry basically adopts IDM mode, that is, it has its own wafer manufacturing plant and packaging and testing plant, which realizes the advantage of internal integration of resources and has a high profit rate. The core elements of competition in memory industry are manufacturing technology and scale effect.

Limited by the wafer size, domestic manufacturers have been in the blank in the field of DRAM, but it is expected to achieve a breakthrough in 2018.

In terms of equipment, due to the high-end technical barriers, domestic manufacturers choose to start from the low end. At present, they have the manufacturing capacity of some core equipment, such as mask aligner, ion implanter, CMP, ECD and other equipment.

▲ Domestic manufacturer DRAM is under construction.

At present, domestic DRAM manufacturers have formed two camps: Fujian Jinhua and Hefei Changxin. Among them, Fujian Jinhua is a 32nm DRAM niche product, focusing on the consumer electronics market; Hefei Changxin is a 19nm DRAM, focusing on mobile memory products, and will realize trial production and open production lines before the end of 2018. In addition, Changjiang Storage and Zhaoyi Innovation also laid out DRAM.

▲2010-2018 DRAM product share and forecast: It is estimated that by 2018, the consumption share of mobile terminals and servers will continue to increase, and PC consumption will continue to decline, reaching the lowest point in history.

Northeast Securities pointed out that the next few years will be the key period for the success of memory research and development because domestic manufacturers are still in the initial stage. After successful research and development, there are still some uncertainties about whether the yield can be raised to a higher level, whether the cost control can meet expectations, and whether the intellectual property rights can be effectively protected. It still takes several years from successful research and development to mass production and sales.

Therefore, it is expected that the domestic production capacity under construction will be gradually released, but with the continuous release of domestic production capacity under construction and the continuous maturity of the national memory industry, it is expected to gradually change the current industrial structure and play a positive role in promoting the development of the global DRAM industry.

Wisdom thinksAt the critical period of semiconductor development in mainland China, DRAM, as an important industrial branch with high cost performance, mature technology and scale advantage, will enter a period of development opportunities under the strong demand of domestic terminals, and some analysts say that next year will be the first year of memory development in China. At that time, faced with the monopoly pressure of the Big Three, as well as the challenges of R&D and production, whether local manufacturers can break through depends not only on their own efforts, but also on policies, capital, industry and market environment.

　　Poster journalist Liang Wen reports

　　"Parking fees on high-priced roads cost hundreds of yuan a day, and bicycles and electric cars also have to be charged …" In recent days, the problem of expensive road parking fees in Nanning, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region has continued to ferment. In the face of controversy, from May 21 to 22, many departments in Nanning frequently voiced their voices.

　　Nanning Municipal Committee decided to suspend five people involved in the memorandum of cooperation for inspection;

　　Nanning Municipal People’s Government issued the Notice on Soliciting Opinions and Suggestions on Parking Charges in Nanning;

　　The Nanning Municipal Development and Reform Commission issued the Announcement on Holding a Hearing on the Charging Standard of Parking Service for Motor Vehicles in Nanning Road Parking Spaces;

　　Nanning Audit Bureau sent an audit team to Nanning Huibo Parking Service Co., Ltd.;

　　Subsequently, Huibo Parking Service Co., Ltd. stopped operating, closed down for rectification, and was audited. Nanning Public Transport Group Co., Ltd. took over the operation and management of urban road parking spaces.

　　……

　　As the incident continues to ferment, the management of urban road parking spaces has also begun to attract attention. Who should be in charge of parking spaces on urban roads? How much should I charge?

　　Citizens report that the high parking fees on roads trigger a chain reaction.

　　According to many Nanning citizens, there are different charging standards for roadside parking in different sections of Nanning. Some citizens have parking fees as high as hundreds of yuan, and some citizens charge more than 90 yuan for roadside parking for one night.

　　An online picture shows that many local cars in Nanning owe tens of thousands of yuan, and even some owners owe more than 60,000 yuan at most. Most of the local road parking spaces in Nanning are operated and managed by Nanning Huibo Parking Service Co., Ltd.

　　The poster journalist noticed that on September 25, 2021, Huibo Parking official WeChat "Hui Parking Service" announced some vehicles that owed road parking fees, and many vehicles owed as much as 10,000 yuan. This article also pointed out that it is not easy to ask for arrears. A parking toll collector said, "Sometimes when car owners are reminded to pay parking fees, they ignore them and drive away, and sometimes they are insulted." According to statistics, as of April 26, 2021, Huibo parking still has a parking fee of 29.937 million yuan owed by the owner of the city road, which is difficult to recover.

　　On May 8 this year, the People’s Court of Qingxiu District of Nanning signed a Memorandum of Cooperation with Huibo Parking, proposing to jointly build an implementation linkage mechanism of "implementation+smart parking", and on the basis of making full use of the advantages of big data analysis of parking space management, closely weave the "tight encirclement" of property inspection and control.

　　How to do it specifically? It is to build a platform to implement the linkage and cooperation mechanism, monitor the vehicles that have been seized by the Qingxiu District People’s Court in real time, and take control measures for the corresponding vehicles. At the same time, Huibo parking can analyze the action route of the person subjected to execution according to the parking situation of the vehicle, and the Qingxiu District People’s Court can narrow the search scope of the person subjected to execution and change the current situation of "difficult investigation and control" of the vehicle subjected to execution.

　　This Memorandum of Cooperation has once again sparked heated public opinion.

　　On May 19th, according to the news of Guangxi News Network, the Higher People’s Court of Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region considered that the signing of the Memorandum of Cooperation between Qingxiu District Court and a specific enterprise was not in line with the principle of fairness and justice. On May 19th, Qingxiu District Court and Huibo Parking were instructed to cancel the Memorandum of Cooperation.

　　On May 21st, according to Nanning News Network, upon the decision of Nanning Municipal Committee, five people, including Zhao Hui, member of the party group and vice president of Qingxiu District People’s Court in Nanning, Liang Fangyan, member of the party group and executive director of Qingxiu District People’s Court in Nanning, Liu Xuan, member of the party group and deputy director of Nanning Municipal and Landscape Administration Bureau, Lai Hong, member of the party Committee and deputy general manager of Nanning Public Transport Group Co., Ltd., and Guo Zhihua, secretary of the party branch and chairman of Nanning Huibo Parking Service Co., Ltd., were suspended for inspection.

　　The Memorandum of Cooperation has brought the issue of road parking charges in Nanning to the stage again.

　　On May 21st, the Nanning Municipal Development and Reform Commission issued the Announcement on Holding a Hearing on the Charging Standard of Parking Service for Motor Vehicles in Nanning. According to the announcement, it is planned to hold a hearing on the charging standard of motor vehicle parking service in Nanning on June 21, 2023, and listen to the opinions of consumers, operators and relevant parties extensively.

　　On May 22nd, the Nanning Municipal People’s Government issued the Notice on Soliciting Opinions and Suggestions on Parking Charges in Nanning. According to the notice, from now until June 5, we will listen to the people’s plans and wisdom, and further optimize and adjust the charging standards for road parking spaces in Nanning. The main collection contents include what adjustments need to be made to the roadside parking fee standard, which sections and areas have unreasonable parking spaces or need to add parking spaces.

　　The Loss Mystery of Nanning Huibo Parking Service Co., Ltd.

　　In the problem of road parking fees in Nanning, Nanning Huibo Parking Service Co., Ltd., which "holds the operation authority of a large number of road parking spaces in Nanning", has been pushed to the forefront.

　　On May 21, Nanning Audit Bureau issued an audit notice: According to the provisions of Article 29 of the Audit Law of People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the decision-making arrangements of the municipal party committee and government, Nanning Audit Bureau sent an audit team to Nanning Huibo Parking Service Co., Ltd. from May 21 to June 15, 2023 to conduct a special audit investigation on the operation and management of road parking spaces in Nanning.

　　On May 22nd, official website, the government of Nanning, issued a notice that Huibo Parking Service Co., Ltd. stopped operating, closed down for rectification and accepted the audit, and Nanning Public Transport Group Co., Ltd. took over the operation and management of urban road parking spaces.

　　According to public information, Nanning Huibo Parking Service Co., Ltd. was established in 2017 and is 100% owned by Nanning Public Transport Group Co., Ltd., which is an indirect 100% owned subsidiary of Nanning State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission. Since January 2018, the company has managed the on-road parking spaces in Nanning, managing a total of 30,535 on-road motor vehicle parking spaces with a parking zone of 36,908 meters and operating 82 non-motor vehicle storage points. On August 26th, 2022, the registered capital of Huibo Parking was changed from 2 million yuan to 502 million yuan.

　　Although "holding" more than 30,000 parking spaces in Nanning, the income of Huibo Parking in 2022 is not good. According to the financial report of Nanning Rail Transit Group, by the end of 2022, Huibo’s parking net assets were 495 million yuan, with a net loss of 12.08 million yuan in 2022.

　　Before being audited, the special audit investigation report of Nanning Audit Bureau in 2021 also pointed out some problems about parking spaces. According to the report, from January 1, 2018 to March 31, 2021, the parking fee income of parking berths and public parking lots managed and operated by Nanning Transportation Investment Group Co., Ltd. totaled 205,513,400 yuan. As of March 31, 2021, the group company and the Municipal Finance Bureau failed to jointly formulate the corresponding detailed management plan for parking fee collection in accordance with the relevant requirements of the Municipal People’s Government, and the parking fee income failed to be turned over to the finance.

　　In this regard, since April 2021, Nanning Public Transport Group Co., Ltd. has worked with the Municipal Finance Bureau for many times to formulate a plan for the payment of paid parking fees in Nanning. In April 2021, it took the initiative to prepay the parking income of motor vehicles on the road to the municipal financial non-tax revenue account.

　　Who is in charge of parking on urban roads? What’s the charge?

　　When the high cost of road parking in Nanning triggered a discussion, some citizens questioned the unreasonable planning of road parking spaces in Nanning, whether the charges were reasonable, why electric bicycles should be charged, and why there was no upper limit on the charges.

　　In this regard, Nanning has responded in many ways. Huibo parking customer service said that the charging standard for road parking was formulated by the Nanning municipal government and recorded by the price department..The Development and Reform Commission of Nanning responded that the charging standard for road parking in Nanning was formulated according to the spirit of the document Guiding Opinions of the Ministry of Transport of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the National Development and Reform Commission on Further Improving the Charging Policy for Motor Vehicle Parking Services and the actual situation in Nanning. The implementation of differentiated parking fees by time and region in the city has been implemented since March 2017. Compared with similar cities, the parking fees of motor vehicles in Nanning are at a moderate level.

　　The reporter found that as the city ranked first in GDP in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, the road parking fee in Nanning is at a high level in Guangxi.

　　On April 10th this year, members of the Development and Reform Commission of Liuzhou issued the Announcement on Public Solicitation of Opinions on Optimizing and Adjusting the Parking Service Charge Scheme for Urban Road Vehicles. The draft for soliciting opinions mentioned that the charging time of temporary parking spaces for motor vehicles is from 7: 30 to 22: 00 every day, new energy vehicles can be parked for 2 hours free, and other motor vehicles can be parked for the first 30 minutes. Vehicles parked in Class I areas will be charged every 30 minutes in the first 2 hours in 2 yuan, and every 30 minutes in 3 yuan from the third hour. Non-motor vehicle parking spaces take 12 hours as a charging unit, and continuous parking for more than 12 hours is accumulated circularly, and the charging standard is 1 yuan/vehicle. Motorcycle parking is implemented with reference to non-motor vehicles.

　　According to local media reports in Guangxi, at present, there are 11 cities in Guangxi that charge for road parking services. Among them, the charging standard for first-class roads in Nanning is: 1.5 yuan /15 minutes (6 yuan/hour) for the first two hours, 2 yuan /15 minutes (8 yuan/hour) from the third hour, and there is no maximum price limit; Class I section of Guilin: 1 yuan/15min (4 yuan/hour) at the first hour, 2 yuan/15min (8 yuan/hour) at the second hour, 2.5 yuan/15min (10 yuan/hour) at the third hour, with the daily maximum price limit of 60 yuan.

　　From a national perspective, road parking charges have become more common. For example, according to the convenience question and answer issued by official website, Beijing Municipal People’s Government on July 4, 2022, according to the Notice on Relevant Issues Concerning the Charging Standards of Road Parking Occupancy Fees in Beijing (J.F.G.J. [2018] No.2770), the parking hourly charges of urban occupied parking lots are subject to government pricing management, and differentiated charges are implemented according to three types of areas (not adjusted since April 1, 2011). That is, the first-class area is the area within the Third Ring Road (including) and four key areas such as the Central Business District (CBD), Yansha District, zhongguancun west and Cuiwei Business District. The 2.5 yuan for small cars is every 15 minutes in the first hour, and it is 3.75 yuan every 15 minutes after the first hour.

　　For another example, in April 2022, Jinan Static Traffic released "Interpretation of Problems Related to Road Parking Management in Jinan City", saying that according to the Notice on Adjusting the Charge Standard of Parking Watch Fees in Urban Areas of our City (J.J.F.Zi [1999] No.381), Notice on Regulating the Parking Charge of Motor Vehicles in Urban Areas (J.J.F.Zi [2015] No.27) and About Daytime period: 8: 00 am-20: 00 pm, 2 yuan/hour; Night time: 20: 00 pm-8: 00 am the next day, 2 yuan/hour, capped in 5 yuan.

　　According to media reports, at present, in some cities in China, such as Beijing and Guangzhou, urban road motor vehicle parking fees are administrative fees, which belong to government non-tax revenue and are managed by "two lines of revenue and expenditure". The charging standards of road parking spaces in each city are different according to their actual conditions.

　　The traffic police department in a certain place once gave such an explanation to the question of why urban roadside parking should be charged: on the premise of giving consideration to the interests of motor vehicles, non-motor vehicles and pedestrians, the main purpose of planning on-street parking spaces on qualified urban roads is to meet the temporary parking needs of citizens. As a public parking resource, the main purpose of on-street parking is to realize the short-term parking of drivers and encourage them to stop and go. However, the phenomenon of "zombie car" and advertising vehicles occupying parking spaces for a long time or even for a long time is not uncommon, which makes it difficult for on-street parking spaces to play the role of temporary parking, and "intelligent management+price leverage" is an effective method to realize the standardized management of on-street parking spaces in many cities in China. Improving the turnover rate of parking spaces is a long-term mechanism. The purpose of charging motor vehicles parked in on-road parking spaces is to exert the price lever adjustment function, improve the utilization efficiency of parking resources, guide drivers to "stop for a short time and go quickly", avoid occupying road parking spaces for a long time, and smooth the static order of the city.