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What is the baseball theory that benefits Buffett for life?

Buffett has a PS photo hanging on the wall of his office.

In the photo, Buffett’s head was put on a baseball player’s body, and there was a matrix of colorful balls marked with numbers. In the documentary, the old man talked about this photo, Kan Kan, and talked about how this baseball player inspired his investment philosophy and benefited him for life.

This baseball player is Ted Williams. He has created many baseball records and won numerous awards. He is called "the greatest hitter in history", "the god of hitting" and "the strongest on the surface".

Why does Buffett take a baseball player as his investment mentor? A sports player, how to teach stock gods to invest money? What is the mysterious connection between the method of sports and the method of making money by investing?

In the 1997 Open Letter from the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway to All Shareholders, Buffett said:

We (Berkshire Hathaway) will practice Ted Williams-level self-discipline. In his monograph "The Science of Strike", Ted explained his way of strike in detail.

He divided the shots in front of him into 77 squares, each of which was the size of a baseball. Only when the baseball flies to the best grid will he swing and hit the ball. At this time, his hit rate is as high as 40%.

And if the ball flies to his worst grid, that is, the corner below the hitting zone, his hitting rate will quickly drop to 23%.

In other words, if you wait for a good opportunity, you can enter the baseball hall of fame; If you don’t distinguish, you will only become an ordinary athlete if you watch the ball and play.

Why can he become the strongest baseball batter on the surface? What is the doorway behind his personal growth? How to make a novice baseball player get his growth mentality, reduce the number of pits and grow up quickly?

Ted Williams wrote a book about his own way of hitting, and called it The Science of Hitting.

The gap between ordinary baseball players and Ted, the "God of Baseball", was summed up by him as a three-step scientific methodology:

1. Hitting management(to get a good ball to hit);

Step 2 think correctly(proper thinking);

3. Practice, practice and practice again(to be quicker with the bat)。

Rule #1: batting managementTake a stick and hit a flying baseball. Do you still need management? Isn’t it enough to see the ball fly over, play hard and try to play your best every time?

Ted, the god of baseball, doesn’t think so In his opinion,When you know what not to play, it is the beginning of real playing.

This principle is similar to my previous reading experience. "When you know what books not to read, it is the beginning of real reading".

Yes, restraint and self-discipline based on scientific management are the essence of the first rule. Ted’s batting management is like this:

1. Identify the ball by divisionTed divided the batting area into 77 squares, each of which is the size of a baseball.

2. Speak with data and know yourself: 77 grids are divided into several different areas, and their technical ability is accurately quantified with data. The red area in the center is the happy zone where he hits the ball, with a hitting rate as high as 40% (the strongest in history, and no one has surpassed it at present), while in the gray area in the lower right corner, the hitting rate drops rapidly, only 23%.

This is a way to speak with data and recognize the boundaries of your ability.

3. Strict self-discipline (discipline, discipline, discipline)Play only the best shots in the best hitting area. Only when the ball enters the strike zone will he swing out.

Rule #2: think correctly

Everyone knows the importance of thinking. From the beginning of entering the classroom in grade one, the teacher has been tirelessly teaching: think hard and think hard.

However, Ted, the god of baseball, doesn’t think so. He thinks that thinking, especially the correct thinking method, is the premise and foundation of effective action.

The right method is so critical that: "If you think in the wrong way, the harder you work, the worse it will be.. "

And behind the correct thinking, it is such a principle:

Sports is also a science.Although it is not a precise science that can be completely quantified, accurately predicted and reproduced by experiments like mathematics and physics.

There should also be a set of scientific methodology for athletes’ personal improvement.Let the athletes’ efforts be more effective, and the efforts can be accumulated and accumulated iteratively.

So, after highly disciplined ball selection, Ted also has his own set of principles when hitting the ball:

1. Improve "observing opponents" to a strategic position;The first ball is absolutely only observed without swinging. He needs to understand the pitcher’s thinking and state that day through careful and keen observation and better adjust his hitting strategy.

2. Think correctly and systematically:On the basis of high-intensity practice, a set of hitting technique methodology suitable for you is refined and summarized.

The Science of Strike, published in 1970, has become a "Bible for baseball players", and ambitious baseball heroes have studied it carefully because Ted has refined a set of relatively scientific, reproducible and practical systematic methodology in this field that is difficult to be scientific and systematic with personal practice and thinking.

Whether it is standing position, hitting angle, timing management, hitting point, mentality adjustment, coping with mistakes, stress management and peacetime exercise, Ted has discussed them one by one and summed up his own methodology. He is really a "meta-problem solver".

The above are some screenshots taken from the book. If baseball teenagers read this pamphlet, they should feel like teenagers wandering in the rivers and lakes in martial arts novels, and suddenly turn to the secret book of Jiuyang Shengong in the cave.

Rule #3: Practice, practice and practice.

The third principle seems to be a cliche, and many people will "cut" it. "In the end, it really tells us to work hard!"

Yes, I still have to work hard.

However, emphasizing efforts does not mean that the method is not good enough. On the contrary, on the basis of basically correct scientific methods, it is the only way for all outstanding people to go all out without reservation, and constantly iterate methods in the process.

For a small number of people, they are smart enough to realize sooner or later that diligence is not the best virtue, but the best strategy.

Really smart people are smart enough to choose to be diligent.Ted, who created the baseball cheats, is the strongest baseball batter on the surface. He gets up at 6 o’clock every day and practices catching the ball 300 times a week. In his own words, "No matter how famous a batter is, no one practices his swing more than Ted Williams."

He is really diligent enough to really practice grinding blisters on his hands. After the blisters are worn out, he will bleed profusely. Then the cocoons on his hands will become thicker and thicker, and his skill will be improved day by day.

Unless we are really talking about the achievements of the world champion level, we don’t have to consider personal IQ and talent. And the relationship between personal efforts and scientific methods, basically sum up:

The real master of learning is the scientific method and the efforts beyond ordinary people.

Ordinary people, methods and efforts are all "average". You know, "just so-so".

Poor scum, the method is wrong, and no matter how hard you try, it won’t help.

The road to the growth of a master is like this: after searching up and down, you get a set of growth methods, but you still have to rely on your own hard training.

Andrew Nieman is a young and ambitious conservatory student in the movie "Burst Drummer". His goal is to become the strongest jazz drummer in history, like his idol Charlie Parker. "I want to be one of THE GREATS !"

However, it is far from enough to get the guidance of the top teachers. A person must be enterprising enough to practice himself to this extent.

I want to be one of the Greats, "I am willing to pay far more efforts than ordinary people and pay 200% sweat and tears". This alone distinguishes the real uncompromising enterprising from a large number of "oral learners".

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The Road of Internet Counterattack of Domestic Beauty Cosmetics: From Being Crushed to Rising

From small red book content to live e-commerce, domestic beauty is rising strongly with the help of social media dividends.

I don’t know when, Li Jiaqi’s live broadcast room has almost been occupied by major emerging domestic beauty brands. Among these emerging domestic brands, there are many old guns who rose by channels in the e-commerce era, and some emerging players who were swept by the online celebrity effect in the new media era. They have absorbed this wave of low-cost Internet traffic dividends in new media channels such as WeChat, Xiaohongshu, bilibili and Taobao Live, and won the brand and sales volume one after another.

In addition to the founder’s background, capital reserve and product advantages, every change in traffic has brought a brand-new brand creation iteration, and emerging content traffic has also made the rise of cutting-edge brands. Whether it is brand image, brand volume or market share, the growth potential of new domestic brands has begun to get better and gain the upper hand.

Unlike in previous years, it was "strongly crushed" by foreign big names. This year, domestic beauty cosmetics also ushered in unprecedented popularity.

This year’s Double Eleven, the beauty industry is also extremely hot. Just 84 minutes after the opening, Tmall’s record for the whole day last year was achieved: in the opening ten minutes, Baique Ling’s transaction exceeded 100 million, followed by the perfect diary, which also exceeded 100 million in the opening thirteen minutes. The sales of Nature Hall’s entire network exceeded 747 million, of which the limited edition lipstick of the 70th anniversary was sold out in one second. The top of the double eleven makeup is also firmly held in the palm of your hand by the perfect diary.

The emergence of many domestic products has successfully attracted the attention of consumers, and major domestic beauty brands have also waited for their own opportunities. The fundamental reason is that it is inseparable from the god’s assistance of Internet traffic.

Undeniably, the marketing change and channel change brought by the Internet traffic dividend are essentially to provide an opportunity for domestic beauty products with marketing drive and channel drive as the core, and to promote the new forces to form changes in the field (channel) of people (consumers) and goods (explosion law).

As Mr. Diao said: whoever seizes new channels, new media and new products can play with a new domestic product.

Due to the lack of strong financial support, it is difficult for most new domestic beauty brands to have their own counters or offline stores. However, the absence of offline stores does not prevent major beauty brands from conquering the main battlefield of Internet marketing and winning their respective glory among brand-new young customers.

As an industry with obvious long tail effect, the beauty market segmentation has created an unparalleled long tail in the beauty industry-small brands, new brands and entrepreneurs always have opportunities, and the secret of cutting in is always niche, flexibility and quick response. This also allows us to see, whether from Xiaohongshu, bilibili, or to Tik Tok and Aauto Quicker, where is the traffic? Where is the new generation of users? Where is the battlefield of marketing and channel of domestic beauty cosmetics.

Take this year’s domestic beauty dark horse-Perfect Diary as an example, the methodology and path of its rise is nothing more than intensive and systematic KOL launch on social grass planting platforms (mainly WeChat, Weibo, Xiaohongshu, Taobao, bilibili and Tik Tok), thus forming word-of-mouth potential.

Different from traditional cosmetics brands that rely solely on simple and rude advertising and complex brand planning, the intensive marketing of Perfect Diary on new media channels has precipitated a large number of high-quality user evaluations and brand reputation, whether in creative design, delivery management, post-investment data feedback or refined platform operation.

This makes Perfect Diary, from a rookie who was not praised by hundreds in Little Red Book in two years, now it has grown into a heavyweight beauty brand with 1.74 million fans. According to the horizontal comparison, Mary Daijia, who debuted at the same time, has only 74,000 fans now.

Then, how did the perfect diary stand out as a dark horse in two years?

Huge marketing investment in making products and planting grass contributed a lot.

As early as the end of 2017, Perfect Diary had a complete set of fans’ economic play, and began to lay out on Xiaohongshu-inviting stars, heads and waists KOL to "plant grass" on their respective Xiaohongshu accounts.

In the early stage, Jelly Lin, Nana Ou-yang and other "stars with the same style" were used as selling points to increase the authority of the brand, thus attracting consumers to buy and forming fission communication. In the later stage, KOL on the head and waist planted grass on the product from the perspective of "pro-testing" to build the trust foundation of fans and improve the conversion rate of traffic.

Of course, behind the high traffic growth of the perfect diary, it is naturally inseparable from the huge marketing and promotion expenses. In the early days alone, the marketing cost of Perfect Diary has exceeded 2.5 million yuan. Thanks to its dare to spend a lot of money and bind the core top resources to create large-scale traffic, after huge marketing investment, Perfect Diary has also achieved high ROI marketing transformation.

The perfect diary is by no means a case of a domestic beauty brand that started with little red books. According to statistics, in the first half of this year, there were 5 million users who discussed and planted domestic products in Xiaohongshu, and the number of notes on domestic products increased by 116% year-on-year.

However, apart from Little Red Book, there are many other successful platforms in beauty brands. For example, WIS, whose dividend flow came from Sina Weibo, the core dividend period of HFP came from WeChat WeChat official account, and half an acre of flower fields came from Tik Tok and Red Earth through webcasting.

It is undeniable that social media has become an important way for domestic makeup brands to obtain traffic. Many "Chinese newcomers" have also risen in batches in the past two years with social media bonuses.

If you search for "Li Jiaqi Live" on Taobao, you will find that almost all the products displayed on the page are domestic beauty products, from the air loose powder of Hua Xizi to the small diamond lipstick of the perfect diary, all of which show the powerful strength of "anchor with goods" in the sales of domestic beauty products.

Since the ultimate goal of live broadcast with goods is to trade, live broadcast itself is a battle of traffic conversion. On Taobao, more than 50% brand merchants have launched live broadcasts, and the live broadcast rooms have driven nearly 20 billion transactions throughout the day, with more than 10 live broadcast rooms selling over 100 million goods and more than 100 live broadcast rooms. Among many categories, beauty cosmetics ranked first in total turnover, becoming the first category of Taobao live broadcast in double 11 this year, and still showing a strong explosive force.

Because beauty and skin care products are more easily displayed intuitively in the live broadcast, and the long tail effect is very obvious, many mid-waist beauty and skin care brands have gained a sense of participation in the sinking bonus of the live broadcast. It is not difficult to see that behind the explosion of domestic beauty, e-commerce, social media and live broadcast stores have become important driving forces.

When Taobao, Aauto Quicker, Tik Tok and other platforms have also begun to incarnate live broadcast stores and move offline sales to online, a brand-new marketing path has been formed: social platforms plant grass for content, online live broadcast bloggers go deep into Amway guidance, e-commerce platforms form closed-loop purchases, and consolidate the stability of sales.

With the dilution of e-commerce and social media dividends, the 100 billion traffic dividend brought by live broadcast has become a new track for the next business to grab. In double 11 this year, Taobao live broadcast was fully standard in beauty, clothing, food, household appliances, automobiles and other industries. In home improvement and consumer electronics industries, the transactions guided by live broadcast all increased by more than 400% year-on-year.

The eye-catching data has made social platforms and e-commerce giants, and all parties have increased their live broadcasts. In addition to the earliest Taobao and Mushroom Street, Tik Tok, Aauto Quicker, JD.COM and Yunji have all entered the venue.

However, there are hidden worries under the prosperity. Li Jiaqi, a phenomenal online celebrity anchor with the title of "the first brother of lipstick", was overturned during a non-stick pot live broadcast, which triggered social doubts about the false propaganda of live broadcast with goods.

At the same time, there are also many consumer problems such as price discrepancy, no giveaways, poor after-sales service, etc. in the messages posted by netizens under anchor Weibo.

But on the whole, "live broadcast with goods" will continue to develop. In the future, e-commerce live broadcast may not become a mainstream purchase method in a short time, but it can be seen that the rapid development of Taobao live broadcast has driven the investment of major e-commerce platforms in live broadcast, and live broadcast has gradually become the standard of e-commerce platforms.

Generally speaking, new and old domestic products are trying to change themselves and adapt to the pace of the times. According to this trend, the future is 10 years, and domestic beauty products are indeed expected to replace some foreign products.

This is a good phenomenon. After all, growing up in this country with a huge demographic dividend, the demand for beauty products in the domestic market is increasing day by day. The domestic market occupied by "Japanese and Korean cosmeceuticals, European and American cosmetics" for many years is indeed a big cake not to be missed. Of course, all these need to be based on the premise that the product quality is qualified.

In recent years, "the rise of domestic XX" seems to have become a new hot word. However, the "rise" of everything is mostly exaggerated. The "rise" should be a phenomenon rather than a case, and it should not be based on the bubble data accumulated by early adopters.

This article was originally published by @ Sun Hailiang "Lace Technology" and everyone is a product manager. Reprinting is prohibited without permission.

The title map comes from Unsplash and is based on CC0 protocol.