"At present, the company’s soda production has started at full capacity, with tight balance between production and sales, sufficient orders, strong demand from downstream customers, relatively low inventory and tight spot market." Recently,Relevant person in charge of ShanghaiThe reporter said.
Affected by factors such as spot shortage, soda ash futures rose sharply on November 27,The contract rose more than 8%, and the price has approached the 2500 yuan/ton mark, hitting a new high in nearly 9 months. In the spot market, the domestic soda ash market has also continued to rise. According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, as of November 27th, domestic light soda ash and heavy soda ash both rose by more than 500 yuan/ton in a month. Among them, the average market price of light soda ash was 2509 yuan/ton, up by 80 yuan/ton from the previous working day; The average market price of heavy soda ash was 2722 yuan/ton, up by 57 yuan/ton from the previous working day. At the same time, the profit of domestic soda ash industry continues to rise. At present, the average gross profit of the industry is about 626.8 yuan/ton, with an obvious increase.
Many insiders said that the uncertainty of soda ash supply will continue to support the strong state of the market, and it is expected that the prosperity of soda ash industry will be maintained until the end of this year.
Industrial chain companies have sufficient orders.
According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, the spot inventory of soda ash manufacturers has shown a downward trend recently. As of November 23rd, the total inventory of domestic soda enterprises is estimated to be about 365,000 tons, down 12.01% from the previous week. A-share listed companies producing soda ash mainly include、、、、、、Wait. The reporter learned that at present, the production capacity of each company is almost running at full capacity, and the inventory is at a low level. Most manufacturers’ orders in November were saturated, and some manufacturers’ orders in December were full, and there was basically no spot in the near future.
It is worth mentioning that the shortage of supply is the main reason for the rise of soda ash market. A person in charge of a listed company producing soda ash told reporters that the shipment of soda ash industry has exceeded the output recently, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has further declined, the downstream customers’ willingness to take goods is high, and the relationship between supply and demand is in a tight balance.
"Some enterprises in the industry failed to put into production as scheduled for some reasons. At the same time, some soda plants are still running at reduced load, and the first batch of central eco-environmental protection inspectors in the third round nationwide have been fully launched, including some soda producing areas, which will further aggravate the tightening of the supply side. " The person in charge said.
Photovoltaic glass becomes the source of increasing demand.
From the supply side, at present, the new capacity of soda industry mainly comes from natural soda faucet. It is understood that the company has four production lines in the first phase of Alashan natural alkali project, with a planned production capacity of 5 million tons of soda ash and 400,000 tons of baking soda. The first production line has been put into trial operation at the end of June this year, the second production line has been put into trial operation at the end of September, and the third and fourth production lines will be put into trial operation one after another. By then, the company will have a soda production capacity of 6.8 million tons/year, ranking first in the industry.
Many people in the industry said that they are optimistic about the trend of soda ash in the near future. On the whole, the uncertainty of soda supply will continue to support the strong market. At present, the incremental change of downstream demand in the market is limited. Although the willingness of downstream replenishment has increased recently, the supply and demand structure of soda ash has changed relatively rapidly, and the market changes in the later period need further observation.
Relevant data show that from January to October this year, the apparent consumption of soda ash in China totaled 23.54 million tons, up 8.63% year-on-year. From the demand of industrial chain, the glass industry is still the biggest demand in the downstream of soda ash. "From the perspective of demand, the demand for float glass is the largest, which is mainly affected by real estate; In terms of increment, it is mainly on photovoltaic glass. " A person in charge of a soda production enterprise told the reporter.
It is understood that each ton of glass consumes about 0.2 tons of soda ash, accounting for 20% to 30% of the cost. In addition to traditional float glass, soda ash is indispensable. With the rapid development of photovoltaic industry, the demand for soda ash for photovoltaic glass is also growing rapidly. At the same time, high-end soda ash products can also be applied to lithium carbonate and so on.Industry, it takes about 2 tons of soda ash to produce 1 ton of lithium carbonate.
From the application classification, light soda ash is used for daily glass, sodium pyrosulfite, sodium silicate, metallurgy, printing and dyeing, water treatment and lithium carbonate, while heavy soda ash is used for flat glass and photovoltaic glass. The capacity distribution of manufacturers in light and heavy alkali is adjusted according to the downstream market demand and price quotation.
A number of interviewed production enterprise leaders said that at present, heavy soda ash accounts for a larger proportion in the products. Lithium carbonate, a popular downstream product, has seen a large price drop since this year. Although the related large enterprises started working normally, the overall operating rate of the industry is not high, and its contribution to the increment of light soda ash is limited.
