Source: Xu Ge said finance and economics
Why are American stocks the best in technology companies, while ours are the best in financial, real estate and energy markets?
Just take a look, the market value of the financial, real estate and energy sectors accounts for half of the big A.
If we look at the profitability of listed companies in these sectors, it will crush all the emerging industries now.
So, everyone asked questions:
Since we are going to upgrade the shopping industry, you are now a big A with such a structure in terms of market value and profit. How to go shopping? Not normal!
The reason why adults are adults is to learn to accept all "anomalies".
The significance and positioning of Big A has always been completely different from that of American stocks. How can you simply apply the logic of American stocks to Big A?
Nowadays, institutions are speculating on blue chips and science and technology. Do you really think that it is entirely the result of market economy research?
Actually, not at all!
People are just doing one of the simplest things:
Talk about ZZ
Imagine, according to the rules of market economy, the stock market should not have tangible hands and surprise calls. Right?
But now, that’s what we did, and even in the second quarter, we directly warned foreign investors to unplug the network cable if they didn’t listen, so that they could not come back or directly.
The Federal Reserve and the Securities and Exchange Commission are also very fierce. This kind of thing should not be done ~
This is what we have always stressed, first of all, we must understand the essence of the market, and then talk about investment and trading.
You don’t even know the rules of the game and the purpose of the game. How can you play it?
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The big A stock market was born in the early 1990s.
At that time, the background was that state-owned enterprises were facing a large area of collapse and bankruptcy, and the financial pressure was extreme. How to break the situation?
Everyone who has studied with me for a long time knows that state-owned enterprises are also in the category of generalized finance.
Therefore, from the birth of our big A, it is ZZ, which is to live for finance, just like another mother.
And the US stock market next door, people are talking about business under the tree, can the two be directly equated?
After so many years of opening-up, many things have changed. Only the "initial intention" of Da A to serve the broad sense of finance has never changed.
However, it’s embarrassing, just like the current Federal Reserve, which obviously serves finance, but you can’t say it clearly, otherwise retail investors won’t come to play.
What should we do?
Therefore, we can only keep talking about benchmarking US stocks, and then actually cut vegetables according to our own position.
When everyone loses money, then directly stigmatize retail investors, thus telling the whole story.
The core kinetic energy of China’s economy is always fiscal expansion in a broad sense, which is even more awesome than the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet.
Local financial projects, local financial land sales, and the continuous expansion of investment by state-owned enterprises can greatly fill the gap in domestic demand and can well hedge the problem of insufficient external demand after the subprime mortgage crisis.
However, the result of this is naturally that the funding gap is getting bigger and bigger.
Because these projects and investments are not to satisfy consumers, but to produce for production, to invest in employment and to build infrastructure for GDP.
Therefore, many projects do not make money, or even lose money, everywhere.
If this game goes on, it will inevitably amplify the risks of commercial banks in an all-round way, which is equivalent to constantly hollowing out the capital of commercial banks.
As for real estate companies, it is also a similar situation. It seems that it was also very awesome in those days. In fact, the big profits have long been taken away by local finance.
And energy, as we all know, all kinds of losses of such enterprises are not originally for market-oriented profits, but for national economic security. Even if it is a blood loss, you can’t be stuck in the neck.
What should we do?
Let bank stocks, real estate stocks and energy stocks desperately raise money in Big A, and let their share prices stay at a high level for a long time. Even if you can’t often go to the market for financing, you can get cash flow through countless financial instruments such as mortgages.
In essence, this kind of cash flow replenishment is not for reinvestment and re-research, but directly uses the actual losses of the industry, which can be regarded as "income".
Therefore, the weight of big A is still dominated by finance, real estate and energy, which is difficult to change. Unless you are willing to give up this "income"; But once you give up, it will be a financial tsunami, which is equivalent to directly exposing the deficit to everyone.
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Therefore, in essence, Big A is a market dominated by "financial speculation"!
You can’t understand this. How can you play this game?
Institutions take the lead in investing heavily in blue chips and depositing a large amount of funds in these special industries. In essence, it means ZZ, which is to cooperate with financial speculation.
In the past few decades, they can use many methods, such as issuing fund products, private financing, large-scale infrastructure investment, national team position adjustment, social security venture capital and so on, to try their best to expand various institutions (that is, state-owned enterprises in the stock market). Through mutual cooperation and joint management, we can quickly raise or lower the price, thus causing the market price to skyrocket and plummet.
Its core purpose is to find ways to distribute these stocks to retail investors, thus completing the transfer of wealth.
That is, wide and violent fluctuation of stock price = high tax burden.
To be honest, there are a considerable proportion of stocks in Big A, which are, in essence, air coins.
Not only worthless, but also a pile of chrysanthemum paper, not even foam.
So, why are you desperately playing science and technology IPO now?
In fact, tops knows very well that there is a problem with just playing like this.
That is equivalent to cutting vegetables, which seems to be a transaction, but it does not produce real wealth.
In the context of Americans’ crazy jamming and containment, we can not directly give up the previous gameplay in Big A (lack of money), but also really realize the financing function for cutting-edge industries and enterprises.
The above tension also shows that the current big A is still a transitional stage, namely:
To cover the deficit of general finance, this matter has to be persisted, otherwise it will be the real grey rhinoceros incident; However, it is also necessary to set aside more market liquidity for emerging industries, otherwise there will be problems with economic growth in the future.
It’s like a family, the old debt has to be repaid, but when it wants to expand its new income, it needs to invest money.
At present, the division, tearing and contradiction within Big A are just like this.
So, what about us investors?
Also speak ZZ, understand the words, and understand the intention of the tangible hand!
Always keep in mind that if you make money, you only achieve a high degree of consistency between your cognition and tops, not your cow.
This is naturally much easier than guessing the market itself, because the short-term market is irrational, while people are rational.
From this point of view, it is not difficult for the speculative market of Big A to make money.
Finally, I would like to remind you:
Don’t comment on the truth in black and white, just follow the trend, which is the key to survival.
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[Knowledge concept of daily financial investment]
Once, Amazon CEO Bezos asked Buffett: He has always made his investment principles public, and it is not difficult, so why can’t few people learn and make money?
Buffett replied: Because no one wants to get rich slowly.
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