On January 31st, in a brake production company in fengcheng city, Jiangxi Province, employees were rushing to produce export products.
Photo by Zhou Liang (Xinhua News Agency)
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, in January, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry rebounded by 3.1 percentage points to 50.1%, and the level of economic prosperity rebounded significantly, releasing a positive signal of economic operation in 2023.
After the start of the New Year, the "First Meeting of the Spring Festival" was held in various places, and China blew the horn of "Fighting for the Economy with All Efforts". China’s economy made a rapid "start" at the beginning of the year, attracting the eager eyes of the whole world.
The economy ushered in a "good start"
"On the occasion of celebrating the Lunar New Year in China, tourist attractions are crowded, cinemas are almost full, and fireworks illuminate the night sky." The recent report on the website of Bloomberg News Agency outlines the festive atmosphere of the Spring Festival in China.
During the Spring Festival, the booming cultural tourism industry in China attracted the attention of foreign media. The US "Wall Street Journal" reported that China’s consumer market is picking up rapidly. During the Spring Festival holiday this year, China’s popular tourist attractions are bustling, the number of outbound travel bookings is increasing, and the cinemas are crowded. According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, in China, the number of people returning home to reunite with their families has increased, and domestic tourist attractions are also very lively.
The data shows that in January, China’s new order index was 50.9%, and the PMI of key industries such as high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing increased to varying degrees, and the prosperity level improved; The non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.4%, returning to the expansion range. There were 308 million domestic tourists, and the domestic tourism income was 375.843 billion yuan, up 30% year-on-year; The box office of the Spring Festival movie broke through 6.7 billion yuan, making it the second best in the history of China movies. The number of express parcels nationwide exceeded 700 million, a substantial increase compared with the same period in 2019 … … Many industries in China ushered in a "good start" in the New Year, and China’s positive economic growth momentum attracted global attention.
China hopes to make a big leap in the Year of the Rabbit, according to an article published on the Indian website of Forbes biweekly. It is widely expected that the accumulated savings in the past three years will boost the consumption growth rate to the pre-epidemic level in COVID-19, and push the GDP growth rate of China to 5% this year. Punit Gupta, head of India and ASEAN automobile sales forecast of S&P Global Transportation Company, said: "China is a huge consumer market, and we will see strong demand to further add vitality to related industries. In addition, we will see new investments in China. The manufacturing industry will have an unprecedented rebound in 2023. "
According to the latest World Bank economic briefing on China, with the deterioration of global demand growth, the total demand structure of China’s economy is expected to gradually shift to domestic demand. With the improvement of consumer confidence and the release of consumer demand, China consumption will gradually recover; Continued infrastructure investment expenditure and investor sentiment will also promote the recovery of investment growth.
The report "World Economic Situation and Prospects in 2023" published by the United Nations predicts that China’s economic growth will reach 4.8% this year, and China’s economic recovery will support the growth of the Asian region. United Nations officials said that China maintains a strong fiscal and monetary policy, and domestic consumption demand in China will also rise in the future.
Consumption becomes the new "engine"
The latest World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that in 2023, the economic growth rate of China will rebound from 3% in 2022 to 5.2%.
What are the ingenious ways for the China government to fight for the economy? Foreign media focus on China’s measures to boost the economy.
According to the website of Lianhe Zaobao, the China government held a meeting on the first working day of the Year of the Rabbit to deploy economic work, and the "First Spring Festival" in many places also focused on economic development, showing its determination to "fight for the economy with all its strength".
The Financial Times published an article entitled "China plans to promote economic growth by promoting consumption", saying that the China government promised to turn promoting consumption into the "main driving force" of the economy. The recent executive meeting in the State Council, China, released a signal: China’s greatest economic potential lies in the consumption of 1.4 billion people, and promoting consumption is a key step to expand domestic demand. China needs to restore the structural role of consumption in the economy. Reuters reported that the executive meeting in the State Council, China indicated that it would accelerate the landing of foreign-invested industries, maintain the stability of RMB exchange rate, implement measures to facilitate cross-border personnel exchanges, help enterprises to participate in domestic and foreign trade exhibitions, and support the sustained and healthy development of private enterprises and digital platform economy.
"The world’s second largest economy is going all out to revive the economy." The website of Barron’s Weekly reported that the economic situation in China is bright. Strong economic, regulatory and epidemic prevention policies are coordinated, all of which are conducive to stimulating the economy. In 2023, China’s GDP growth may far exceed that of the United States and Europe. This round of economic recovery is different from the past. The current development focus of China is to increase domestic consumption for 1.4 billion people — — This is the new engine of China’s economic growth. In addition, China will make efforts in the priority areas for policy makers, including expanding middle-income groups in China by solving the gap between the rich and the poor and reducing the cost of living. The report quoted fund manager David semple as saying: "In China, all the switches that can be started are turned to the side of economic growth, and the economic growth momentum is full."
The article "China prepares for economic acceleration" published on the website of the Russian Strategic and Cultural Foundation said that all provinces in China should adjust measures to local conditions and attach importance to boosting the consumption demand of specific categories of goods and services. Guangdong, the strongest economic province in China, vigorously promotes the consumption of high-value and high-tech products such as new energy vehicles, green and smart home appliances. Beijing plans to promote digital, cultural and ecological consumption. Shanghai is committed to deepening its development as an international trade and financial center. Shandong will promote the sales of automobiles, household appliances and other high-value commodities. By providing subsidies, Henan encourages all localities to extend car purchase concessions. Real estate investment, industrial and road traffic infrastructure construction, green economy and digitalization are regarded as the main economic development directions.
Bring about a positive "chain reaction"
What benefits will China’s strong economic growth bring to the global economy? Foreign media and professional organizations generally give positive predictions.
A number of international financial institutions have recently expressed their optimism about China’s economic prospects and its contribution to the global economic recovery. Morgan Stanley recently raised its economic growth forecast for China in 2023 by 0.3 percentage points to 5.7%. Goldman Sachs Group raised the target point of morgan stanley capital international China Index for the third time in a row, believing that the current market rebound in China is not only a recovery of consumption and service trade, but also a "growth recovery that spans more industries and has a broader foundation".
Pierre, chief economist of IMF — Olivier Gourinchas believes that in 2023, China’s contribution to global economic growth will far exceed that of the United States and the European Union. The Associated Press interprets China’s economic recovery as an "important factor" for the IMF to raise its global economic growth forecast. Bloomberg believes that thanks to the positive factors such as China’s economic recovery and boosting demand, the global economy, which has experienced a continuous downward adjustment of growth expectations in 2022, may usher in an "inflection point".
British "Financial City Morning Post" website quoted forecasters as saying that the global economy will avoid recession this year due to China’s optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention policies. According to the data of S&P Global Market Intelligence, the boost brought by China, the world’s second largest economy, will help the global economy achieve positive growth this year.
More and more China tourists go abroad, which will also bring new vitality to the global tourism industry. According to the analysis of Fitch Ratings, China’s optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention policies have increased the possibility of rapid recovery of tourism in the Asia-Pacific region. The recovery of China’s outbound travel will boost the growth prospects of developed economies in tourism. Hong Kong, China, Macau, Thailand and Malaysia are likely to benefit the most from these trends. China tourists may also provide varying degrees of support for the macroeconomic performance of Singapore and Viet Nam. Global Telenews reported that in 2023, the global tourism industry will grow strongly and continuously due to the increased confidence of consumers in tourism and the release of China tourists’ demand for holidays and international travel.
"China sends a strong signal to the world: China is ready for everything to return to normal." According to an article published on the website of The Times of India, China’s domestic economic activities have returned to the pre-epidemic level, which is good news for global trade and economy. Cross-border free flow is expected to further have a positive chain reaction to international business activities. Trade shows, fairs and expositions can finally be resumed, international buyers will return to China, and domestic suppliers will be able to display their latest products.
Belgium — Bernard Dewit, Chairman of China Economic and Trade Commission, believes that China is an important participant in the global value chain, and its influence on manufacturing, shipping and global logistics cannot be ignored. China’s optimization and adjustment of epidemic prevention policies to strengthen the expectation of global economic recovery will continue to provide important support for the normal operation of the global industrial chain and supply chain, which is of great significance to stabilizing the world economy.
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