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How to move forward after the "three changes" in the housing market in the Year of the Ox: Don’t buy after death?

  2008 is a changing year for China real estate market. The role of the national macro-control policy shows that the transaction volume of commercial housing, which used to be booming in supply and demand, has dropped sharply, and the rising house prices are beginning to decline. The capital chain of real estate developers is tight, buyers are in a state of collective wait and see, and the real estate market is booming.


  When the irrational fanaticism of "real estate speculation by the whole people" gradually weakens, people suddenly find that the changes in the housing market and the rise and fall of housing prices are not as simple as the figures themselves, but involve social and economic development and people’s well-being. As one of the pillar industries closely related to national life, how will China real estate industry at the crossroads balance the two propositions of "promoting growth" and "protecting people’s livelihood" in 2009?


  The change of the market: the quantity falls and the price lags behind, and the "turning point" of the property market comes.


  At the end of 2007, Wang Shi, the head of Vanke, put forward the "turning point" theory when the property market in China was still booming, which was refuted by many people inside and outside the industry. However, just one year later, even the most optimistic people have to admit that the real estate market in China is facing a severe situation.


  According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2008, the national commercial housing sales area was 490 million square meters, down 18.3% year-on-year. Among them, the sales area of commercial housing decreased by 18.8%. At the same time, the monthly year-on-year increase of house prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide reached an all-time high of 11.3% in January 2008, and the increase rate accelerated and decreased to 0.2% in November 2008. The house prices in index cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing declined to varying degrees.


  In Shenzhen, where house prices rose all the way in 2007, the average price of commercial housing fell from 17,400 yuan in October 2007 to 11,800 yuan in September 2008, and even fell below the 10,000-yuan mark during the National Day. In the first nine months of 2008, the sales area of new commercial housing in Shenzhen was 2,599,400 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 47.81%.


  In Shanghai, with Vanke taking the lead in price reduction, many real estate giants followed suit, and house prices began to turn around. In August 2008, the second-hand housing price index in Shanghai changed from rising to falling for the first time. In September, the price of commercial housing in Shanghai showed obvious signs of decline. Beijing can’t be immune. In September 2008, house prices in Beijing dropped by 0.2% month-on-month, which is the first time that house prices in Beijing have declined since 2005. By November, the increase of housing sales price in Beijing dropped by 2.3 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline rate exceeded 2 percentage points for the first time.


  The arrival of the "cold winter" in the property market has made the developers who used to be "monolithic" in price "flexible". Many properties have begun to be discounted, buying houses to send property, sending home appliances and even sending cars, and various promotional methods have appeared in BLACKPINK; Property buyers who have always been in a weak position have the confidence to wait and see.


  Policy change: from "pressure" to "promotion" to ensure healthy development


  In 2008, the China real estate market, which was at the turning point, began to feel the pressure. The capital chain of real estate developers began to be tight, and the phenomenon of bottom price transaction, auction and even "land withdrawal" began to appear in various places. The sharp cooling of the land market has led to a sharp drop in the land transfer income of local governments. More importantly, as one of the pillar industries, the prosperity of the real estate industry is closely related to the development of local economy.


  In this context, some local governments have launched measures aimed at "activating" the real estate market. In August 2008, the Shenyang Municipal Government announced a series of plans to warm up the market, and Xi ‘an, Xiamen, Changsha, Chengdu and other places also successively introduced preferential measures for buying houses, including tax exemption and tax reduction, and housing subsidies, hoping to stimulate consumption in the real estate market.


  After a wave of bottom-up actions to stimulate the recovery of the real estate market, China’s real estate regulation and control policies ushered in an "inflection point" from "suppression" to "promotion" in October 2008. On the 17th of that month, the executive meeting of the State Council made arrangements for the economic work in the fourth quarter. Besides "increasing the scale of affordable housing construction", it first proposed "reducing the taxes and fees for housing transactions and supporting residents to buy houses". In December, a series of preferential measures were introduced intensively. The executive meeting of the State Council held on December 17th put forward policy measures such as relaxing the second home loan, reducing business tax and increasing the credit of housing enterprises. On the 21st, the General Office of the State Council issued "Several Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market", proposing a number of policies such as supporting housing enterprises to reduce prices and promote sales; On the evening of the 22nd, the central bank announced a rate cut for the fifth time that year, and at the same time lowered the deposit reserve ratio. Among the five key tasks in 2009 assigned by the Central Economic Work Conference at the end of 2008, two of them are related to real estate, "to combine the desire of residents to improve their living conditions reasonably with the role of real estate as a pillar industry"; "Increase the supply of affordable housing, reduce the burden of residents’ reasonable purchase of self-occupied ordinary commodity housing, and give play to the positive role of real estate in expanding domestic demand".


  In this context, 2009 will be a crucial year to accelerate the construction of affordable housing. Qi Ji, deputy director of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, believes that increasing the supply of affordable housing will make many low-income groups no longer be mixed with the supply targets of the commercial housing market, which is conducive to stabilizing the price of the commercial housing market. Relevant experts believe that the policy orientation of combining "satisfying residents’ desire to improve their living conditions reasonably" with "giving full play to the role of the pillar industry of real estate" and emphasizing "protecting people’s livelihood" at the same time of "promoting growth" will enable China’s real estate market to walk on two legs, and its future development will be more stable and standardized.


  Change of demand: "De-foaming" can stimulate the return of "rigid demand" in the market.


  A fact that is more comforting than various favorable and warm-up policies is that the desire and demand of China people to improve their housing conditions still exist rigidly. The sales of some well-known large-scale and some small-sized properties with large discounts have become a proof of the "rigid demand" for residents to improve their housing conditions.


  However, there are signs that a large number of property buyers are still on the sidelines. The 2009 Blue Book of Economy published by China Academy of Social Sciences pointed out that in 2009, it is still difficult for real estate demanders to get out of the wait-and-see situation in a short period of time. Real estate speculators will withdraw from the market to varying degrees due to the decline in speculative ability, and the demand for self-occupation of first-time home buyers will be more cautious. Real housing demanders who remain in the market will put forward higher requirements for real estate products.


  "The reason why ordinary people will wait and see is because the current housing prices are still far higher than the expectations of ordinary people." Wang Shengxue, president of Shaanxi Real Estate Research Association, believes that the current situation shows that the era of real estate profiteering is gone forever. If developers want to tide over the difficulties, they must reasonably control profit margins and win market recognition by "defoaming" housing prices.


  However, although the housing market has turned around and walked away, an interest pattern that has not been shaken so far is that the cost of land acquisition and various "public relations" costs still account for 50% or even higher of the price composition of commercial housing. "We can cut profits, but gray costs cannot be compressed." At the end of the year and the beginning of the year, a real estate agent explained why he was still carrying the price down.


  Real estate developers will die, and buyers will certainly die. The once-sung "Don’t sell after death" sound is still ringing in the stock market, and the clanging sound of "Don’t buy after death" seems to ring again in the property market. Relevant persons pointed out that when the "dream of living in peace" of thousands of households still has to be blended with the "land finance" of local governments in the housing market, the "blowout" of housing demand in the market will probably become a long wait. (Reporter Shi Zhiyong)

Editor: Gao Song

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The fundamentals of the real estate industry have remained unchanged for a long time.

Wang Lixin
On November 10th, Pan Gongsheng, Governor of the People’s Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that the risks of real estate finance and local debt were generally controllable.
In my opinion, the current risks related to the real estate industry deserve high attention, but there is no need to be too pessimistic about the development prospects of the industry. In the medium and long term, there is a great demand for improved housing for residents’ families. Chinese-style modernization and new urbanization will bring continuous incremental housing demand, and the reconstruction of villages in megacities under the new model will also bring new opportunities, and the fundamentals supporting the real estate industry to stabilize and improve have not changed.
At the macro level, the policy of stabilizing the economy continues to exert its strength, and residents’ income expectations are improving, which provides strong support for the stabilization and recovery of the real estate market. From the GDP growth of 4.9% in the third quarter, it can be seen that China’s economy is recovering well. Although the real estate has not come out of the downturn, the transaction volume of new houses in key first-and second-tier cities has recovered, and the industry is expected to be gradually restored, stabilized and rebounded.
First of all, the real estate policy still has further expectations.Since the end of August, many departments and places in China have intensively introduced policies to moderately optimize and adjust the real estate, and policies such as "recognizing houses without recognizing loans", relaxing purchase restrictions, lowering interest rates, and returning the multi-city land market to "the highest bidder" have been intensively implemented, and their efforts have been significantly enhanced. The continuous use of the policy toolbox "because of the city’s policy" has created conditions for meeting the release of just-needed and improved housing demand, and opened up space for the stabilization of property market transactions in various places.
Judging from the recent statements of the central bank and relevant departments, the idea of relevant financial measures to support the stable and healthy development of the real estate market in the next stage has been clear. On the one hand, policies such as residents’ housing credit and housing financing still have further expectations, such as reducing residents’ housing purchase costs and increasing housing financing support; On the other hand, the financial supporting policies for the "three major projects" of affordable housing, urban village reconstruction and "flat and emergency" public infrastructure construction are also expected to accelerate, which is expected to play an important role in stabilizing investment in the future, and will also play a positive role in restoring and stabilizing real estate sales.
Secondly, the work of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" has been solidly promoted, and the confidence of the industry has been boosted to some extent.At present, "guaranteed delivery building" is an important event in promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and plays a key role in restoring housing consumption confidence. Since July 2022, when the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee Conference first put forward the task of "guaranteeing the delivery of property", various financial services such as "guaranteeing the delivery of property" special loan and "guaranteeing the delivery of property" loan support plan have followed suit, and relevant departments have also guided commercial banks to provide supporting financing support.
In addition to financial support, local governments and housing enterprises are also paying attention to the reform of the pre-sale system and encouraging the sale of existing homes. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first nine months of this year, the sales area of existing commercial houses nationwide was 130 million square meters, up 21.2% year-on-year, accounting for 17.9% of the total sales area, up 4 percentage points from the end of 2022. Theoretically, the sale of existing homes is the fundamental measure to prevent the unfinished property. Taking some projects in some cities as the pilot of existing home sales can also boost industry confidence and fundamental recovery.
第三,信用风险正在逐步出清,行业基本面逐步改善。进入11月份以来,万科债券出现非理性波动,深圳国资委明确表示支持万科,称其具备足够的安全性。随后,万科、金地于11月9日及10日相继发布赎回及债券兑付公告,市场暂时恢复平静。此外,今年以来,融创中国等出险房企债务重组方案也多顺利通过。
无论是大股东支持,还是化债取得关键进展,大型房企稳住经营基本盘,可助力行业进一步抽丝剥茧地切实改善基本面,从而防范化解房地产领域的金融风险。当然,企业层面也需要逐步向规范化、多元化、轻量化方向转型,以长期视角探寻新发展模式,比如在碳中和、建筑施工、资产管理、养老服务等细分赛道创新商业模式,引领行业升级发展。
树木因相依而生长,星辰因辉映而璀璨。当前房地产行业正在进行重大转型并寻找新的均衡点,希望在各方聚力下,尽快实现从“信心修复”到“行业康复”,步入健康发展新阶段。
图片 | 站酷海洛
制作 | 张文玲
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Shanghai will disclose data to respond to the government’s remarks that 1/2 of housing costs flow to the government.

  During the National "Two Sessions" this year, the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce submitted to Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference a speech entitled "Why China’s housing prices remain high-half of the total expenditure on real estate development flows to the government" (hereinafter referred to as "the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce"), which caused great controversy. According to the speech, the survey of "development expenses of real estate enterprises" in nine cities across the country shows that the proportion of the total expenses flowing to the government (that is, land costs+total taxes) is 49.42%. The share of development projects in Shanghai flowing to the government is the highest, reaching 64.5%.


  In this regard, Shanghai Mayor Han was interviewed by reporters during the "two sessions" and questioned that "I don’t know how the data of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce came from, it must be wrong". However, he did not disclose the data he had at the meeting.


  On March 18th, Mayor Han Zheng said at the "Implementation of the TV and telephone conference on strengthening the administration of counties and cities according to law in the State Council" in Shanghai: "This year, the Shanghai municipal government promised that government funds will be further made public." According to Shanghai’s budget reports for several years, Shanghai’s land transfer fees account for a large proportion of government funds.


  China Economic Weekly recently learned from people familiar with the matter that the Shanghai Planning and Land Resources Administration is organizing documents and calculating relevant data, and may "respond" to the data of the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce through "public clarification" soon.


  However, the content that will be "publicly clarified" will probably not include Shanghai real estate tax data. Xu Jun, the news liaison of the finance and taxation department of Shanghai Municipal Government, admitted to China Economic Weekly that the real estate tax situation is not something that should be made public, so he has no obligation to make it public, and has not received any documents from the relevant departments asking the Shanghai tax department to calculate, count and organize the income of real estate developers.


  64.5% of the income flows to the government?


  The speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce has attracted much attention because it involves the sensitive topic of who is the promoter and beneficiary of high housing prices, the government and developers.


  According to the reporter’s understanding, Ren Zhiqiang, vice president of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and chairman of Beijing Huayuan Real Estate Company, who ranked first among mainland real estate developers in 2008 with an annual salary of 7.74 million, was quite active in the dispute.


  On March 11th, he wrote in his blog that the report of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce at the two sessions revealed the composition of China’s real estate development expenses, and made the land and tax revenue, which accounted for most of the housing prices, public, and revealed the important factors of housing price increase. To solve the problem of high and low housing prices, we should start with the government, because "it is difficult to produce cheap bread with high-priced flour."


  According to the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, "Shanghai has the highest share of the total sales revenue of development projects flowing to the government, accounting for 64.5%, and correspondingly, the share of enterprise surplus is the smallest, accounting for only 4.15%".


  This data seems to subvert people’s views on the "profiteering" of real estate developers, but not only the mayor of Han Zheng, but also many officials of the Shanghai Municipal Government expressed disapproval in an interview with China Economic Weekly.


  An official of the Shanghai Municipal Government who asked not to be named told the reporter of China Economic Weekly: "You can take a closer look at the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce. The data and some opinions used are from real estate developers. The speech is completely covered with the cloak of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, protecting the interests of real estate developers themselves. "


  So what is the core data source of such a controversial speech?


  China Economic Weekly learned in the survey that the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce was brewed in two research reports of its subordinate, the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce. In the second half of 2008, the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce visited 62 developers in 9 cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, involving 81 real estate projects, and finally formed a cost analysis report. The full name of the report is "Overview of the Basic Situation and Main Conclusions of Real Estate Development Expenses and Sales Income Analysis in China" (hereinafter referred to as "Introduction").


  On February 6th this year, the Introduction of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce was submitted to the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce in the form of the Investigation Report on the Development Expenses of Real Estate Enterprises in China (hereinafter referred to as the Investigation Report), hoping to serve as the speech of the CPPCC National Committee of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce during the two sessions this year. After that, the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce caused an uproar.


  After comparing the above three documents, the reporter of China Economic Weekly found many questions. For example, in the survey of 81 projects of 62 companies in Introduction, the sampling seems unreasonable.


  In Shanghai, Introduction selected 30 projects from 29 companies, 31 projects from 19 companies in Guangzhou, and 7 projects from only one company in Beijing.


  What is even more incredible is that, as a "professional survey" of a national real estate enterprise chamber of commerce, four of the nine cities (Xi ‘an, Suzhou, Chengdu and Shenzhen) only selected one project from one company. Among them, the project in Chengdu is only in the "planning and design stage", while the companies in Suzhou, Xi ‘an and Shenzhen are "small", and their "sparring" nature seems too obvious.


  In addition, the reporter learned that all the statistical data in the speech of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce came from the "REICO Studio", which was jointly funded by the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, Midtown Alliance, Wantong and Huayuan. Some professionals told reporters that the accuracy of the survey data is worthy of scrutiny, because there may be selective sampling problems, which leads to the unfairness of the scientific nature of the survey.


  The secretary and mayor shouted for price reduction.


  Behind the "war of words" is the wrestling between the government and real estate enterprises on the issue of "whether to protect or suppress housing prices".


  "In the past six months, there have been various indications that Shanghai’s real estate policy has turned, and the government’s request for real estate developers to reduce prices has become more and more clear." A senior Shanghai real estate industry insider told China Economic Weekly.


  The reporter noticed that after entering January 2009, Shanghai leaders frequently conveyed such information to the outside world: Shanghai’s housing prices are on the high side, and real estate developers should "follow the trend" and "actively reduce prices".


  During this year’s "two sessions" in Shanghai, Ni Jianda, president of Shanghai Chengkai Group, and Ji Baohong, chairman of Shanghai Wangyuan Real Estate Company, as representatives of Shanghai real estate developers, put forward their opinions to Yu Zhengsheng, secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, and Han Zheng, mayor of Shanghai, respectively, and thought that the Shanghai municipal government should stabilize housing prices and should not build affordable housing and low-rent housing on a large scale.


  For such an idea, on January 19th, Yu Zhengsheng, secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, made it clear: "House prices can’t be high and can’t go up any more." On February 21st, Han Zheng, the mayor of Shanghai, made it more clear: "At present, housing prices in Shanghai are indeed on the high side, and housing prices are generally regulated by the market, but the government should use some policies to guide and promote consumption, and more people will buy houses at lower prices."


  A person from the real estate industry in Shanghai told China Economic Weekly: "According to the secretary and mayor, it is impossible for Shanghai to introduce the policy of tax refund and home purchase. While the secretary and mayor call on real estate enterprises to actively adjust prices, they should also think about the real reasons for the high housing prices. This is the original intention of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce to issue a research report."


  Is there a gray expenditure in the developer’s 30% profit?


  Just as people were "expressing their opinions" on the issue of "data", Cheng Siwei, a famous economist who was the vice chairman of the 9th and 10th the National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC), threw out his views on the current composition of high housing prices. During the "two sessions", he said in an interview with the media that in 2005, he and his doctoral students made a housing price reference model, and then checked three points in Beijing, Shanghai and Fuzhou.


  Cheng Siwei revealed: "As a result of the check, the house price cost, including land price and building materials cost, accounts for 50%, the government’s taxes and fees account for 20%, the developer’s profits account for 30%, and part of the developer’s 30% is gray cost. To put it bluntly, it is the cost of bribery. One is that developers take the initiative to pay bribes, and the other is that powerful government workers ask for bribes. If you don’t give me money, I won’t give you a batch or do it for you. "


  In fact, over the past year or so, among the important corruption cases in Shanghai, there are not a few people involved in real estate. Yin Guoyuan, former deputy director of Shanghai Real Estate Bureau, Kang Huijun, former head of real estate speculation in Shanghai, Wang Miaoxing, former party secretary and chairman of Shanghai New Long March (Group) Co., Ltd., Zhou Xiaodi, a real estate tycoon in Shanghai, suspected of illegally reselling land use rights, Qin Jinlong, former president of Shanghai Zhongxiang Group, suspected of embezzling state-owned assets of 160 million yuan, and Zhang Keming, former deputy head of Putuo District in Shanghai, all seem to reveal the existence of "grey areas" in the real estate industry.


  The reporter noted that although the "gray expenditure" was not mentioned in the Survey Report submitted by the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce to the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, an "unforeseen expense" was seen from the cost analysis in the Overview, which accounted for 3.08% of the total cost.

Editor: Zhang Renhe

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It is estimated that more than 300,000 tables will be booked for online New Year’s Eve dinner and group annual banquet! Have you decided what to eat?

On February 9th, the online staff of Qinma Hot Pot was busy. On this day, only the online New Year’s Eve hot pot package order was received, and 180 orders were received.
This is a microcosm of the online booking of catering enterprises in Chongqing since Chongqing launched the online New Year Festival and online New Year’s Eve booking, in order to make it easier for people staying in Chongqing for the New Year.
Banquet packages around 300 yuan are the most popular
According to the person in charge of Qinma Hot Pot, this year’s online dinner of Qinma Hot Pot has launched 10-person packages, 8-person packages, 6-person packages and 4-person packages. The price of these packages ranges from 300 yuan to 800 yuan, and the best one is the package for 6-8 people, with the original price of 438 yuan and the preferential price of 388 yuan during the Spring Festival.
"Usually, I take out about 30 orders a day. During the Spring Festival, the closer I get to the Spring Festival, the more take-out orders. February 9 is the most day, and I received more than 180 orders." The person in charge said that the online hot pot dinner package of more than 300 yuan sold the best. Among them, the hot pot must order beef tripe, duck intestines and fresh-cut grassland beef with the highest click-through rate; Duck blood and mushrooms in vegetarian dishes are also highly clicked.
At the same time, during the Spring Festival this year, Liziba Liangshan Chicken launched four sets of meals, including four meals, eight meals, three to four meals and six to eight meals. According to reports, the business of the set meal in February exceeded 500,000 yuan, among which the meal for 3-4 people was the most popular, and the price was 227 yuan.
Liziba Liangshan Chicken introduced that in this year’s dinner reservation, the signature dish Liziba Liangshan Chicken is the most popular. Secondly, the popular signature dishes such as Zhao Jie chicken offal and beauty pig hands are also deeply loved by consumers.
Beef is a must for almost every hot pot.
Yang Changjiang, general manager of Jie Fangbei Jiuchongtian Revolving Restaurant, told reporters that online orders have risen sharply, with more than 80 online orders that night.
According to the person in charge of Brother Zhou’s hot pot, since the online Chinese New Year Festival was held, the online group purchase of enterprises has risen sharply, and the online ordering of individuals has increased since the end of January, and the monthly subscription volume has increased by at least 30%.
Take Brother Zhou’s Auto Expo Store as an example. On February 10th, 24 online orders were delivered. Up to now, only 12 orders were received on New Year’s Eve, and most of them were large orders for about 10 people, ranging from 900 to 1,500 yuan.
Among them, the waist slice package is the best, followed by the hairy belly package and the duck sausage package. The meat dishes with the most hits are mainly Brother Zhou’s broadsword waist slices, hairy belly, duck intestines and freshly cut beef. The most clicked materials include lotus root slices, bean sprouts and mushrooms.
Major hot pot enterprises said that in recent two years, beef is almost a must-have dish for every hot pot, replacing the traditional dishes of Chongqing hot pot, such as yellow throat, brain flower, lunch meat and crisp meat, and becoming one of the most clicked meat dishes, which also shows that people’s nutritional awareness is getting stronger and stronger, and hot pot dishes are constantly being enriched and adjusted.
It is estimated that more than 300,000 tables will be booked for online New Year’s Eve dinner and group annual banquet.
It is understood that in order to make it easy for people who stay in Chongqing for the New Year, the Chongqing Municipal Commission of Commerce has launched the "Home Shopping Online New Year" and the 2021 Aishang Chongqing Online New Year Festival since January 20.
At the same time, on February 1, Chongqing launched the activity of sending New Year’s Eve dinner home, and 278 catering enterprises or restaurants volunteered to participate in the activity.
Jie Fangbei Jiuchongtian Revolving Restaurant, Liangjiang Lijing Hotel, etc. all offer special packages for New Year’s Eve. Qin Ma Hot Pot, Brother Zhou Hot Pot, Wood Stove, Lotus Room, etc., all have discounts on online ordering.
According to the data from Chongqing Municipal Commission of Commerce, the local community e-commerce platform "Explosives King" in Chongqing and 25 local catering merchants in N37 Moonlight City Commercial Center launched the New Year’s Eve dinner home delivery activity. Up to now, the total transaction volume of the platform was 5.9 million yuan, and the order volume increased by 219% year-on-year, and the number of daily users exceeded 28,000.
It is estimated that during the Spring Festival this year, more than 300,000 tables will be booked for online New Year’s Eve and group annual banquets in the city, and the estimated turnover will exceed 200 million yuan, which will effectively meet the consumption demand of citizens for New Year’s Eve and reunion dinner and fully release the consumption potential of catering services.
Upstream News-chongqing morning post reporter Xu Ju
Reporting/feedback
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The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue blue warnings for severe convective weather and heavy rain at 06: 00 on May 5.

CCTV News:According to the website of the Central Meteorological Observatory, the Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a blue warning of severe convective weather at 06: 00 on May 5.

It is estimated that there will be 8-10 thunderstorms or hailstorms in parts of western Hubei, western Hunan, northwestern Jiangxi, northeastern Sichuan Basin, western Chongqing, central and eastern Guizhou and northern Guizhou from 08: 00 on May 5 to 08: 00 on May 6. There will be short-term heavy rainfall in parts of southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, western and southern Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, northern Zhejiang, northwestern Fujian, northeastern Sichuan Basin, Chongqing, central, eastern and northern Guizhou, with an hourly rainfall of 20-40 mm and a local area of more than 50 mm.

It is estimated that the main influence period of strong convection is from afternoon to night today.

Defense guide:

1. The government and relevant departments shall, in accordance with their duties, prepare for short-term rainstorm prevention, lightning protection and gale prevention, and the meteorological department shall prepare for artificial hail suppression;

2. Outdoor pedestrians and staff should reduce outdoor activities and pay attention to stay away from structures such as scaffolding billboards;

3. Drive poultry and livestock into places with roofs, and close doors and windows to reinforce sheds;

4. The water operations in relevant waters and passing ships shall take active measures such as returning to Hong Kong to avoid or detour navigation, pay attention to covering building materials at the construction site, and properly arrange outdoor items susceptible to heavy rain, wind and hail;

5. Check the drainage system of cities, farmland and fish ponds, and prepare for drainage and defense against disasters such as mountain torrents, landslides and mudslides.

The Central Meteorological Observatory continued to issue a blue rainstorm warning at 06: 00 on May 5.

It is estimated that from 08: 00 on May 5 to 08: 00 on May 6, there will be heavy rains in eastern Sichuan, most of Chongqing, southwestern Hubei, northeastern Guizhou, northwestern and eastern Hunan, central Jiangxi, northwestern Fujian, northwestern Shaanxi and western Shanxi, among which there will be heavy rains (100-120 mm) in western Hunan and central Jiangxi. Some of the above areas are accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall (the maximum hourly rainfall is 20 ~ 40 mm, and the local area can exceed 50 mm), and there are strong convective weather such as thunderstorms and strong winds.

Defense guide:

1, the government and relevant departments in accordance with their duties to prepare for the storm;

2. Schools and kindergartens should take appropriate measures to ensure the safety of students and children;

3. Drivers should pay attention to road water and traffic jams to ensure safety;

4, check the city, farmland, fish pond drainage system, ready for drainage.

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The influence of cold air is coming to an end, and the national temperature is warming up soon.

  Affected by cold air, in the past few days, most parts of the country have experienced different degrees of cooling from north to south, and the cooling range in some areas has reached 8 ~ 10℃, affecting a wide range, from northeast to southwest, and obvious rain and snow weather has also appeared in the north and south. However, today and tomorrow, the impact of cold air is coming to an end, and the national weather situation is about to have a major turning point. The temperature in most areas will stop falling and pick up, and the southern region will also change from the previous rainy and humid state to a relatively dry and sunny weather.

  It is estimated that from April 1 to 2, cold air will mainly affect southwest and south China, and the temperature will drop by 4 ~ 6℃ in central and western Yunnan, Fujian, southern and eastern Guangdong, Hainan Island and other places, and the local temperature can reach above 8℃. The above areas are accompanied by 4 ~ 5 winds and gusts of 6 ~ 7. There are small to moderate rains in most parts of southwest China, south of the Yangtze River and south China, among which there are heavy rains or rainstorms in parts of Yunnan, Guangdong and Hainan Island.

  In addition, during the daytime from April 1 to 3, due to the influence of cold air, there will be strong winds of 7-8 grades and gusts of 9 grades in the southern part of the East China Sea, Taiwan Province Strait, east of Taiwan Province, bashi channel, northern and central South China Sea, southwestern South China Sea and Beibu Gulf, among which the winds in Taiwan Province Strait, parts of the central and western South China Sea can reach 9 grades and gusts of 10 grades. Remind ships sailing and operating in the above-mentioned sea areas to pay attention to defending against strong winds at sea.

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Is it awkward to reveal the glamorous "personal design" of the broker stars in the workplace?

  Stars who live in the spotlight are not only glamorous on the stage, but also the work arrangement behind the scenes and daily life are the focus of public attention. Recently, a reality show "Me and My Agent" reflecting the living conditions of artists and agents has attracted attention, which has opened a new perspective and revealed the working status of the agent profession and the inside story of the artist’s business image. While satisfying curiosity, the work orientation of "setting people up" has also caused controversy.

  Question 1. Are the stars’ every move carefully planned by people?

  Brokerage companies help stars enlarge their strengths and meet market expectations.

  The program opened the life section of boss Yang Naizhen’s one-hearted entertainment. Zhu Yawen, Yuqi Zhang, White, Chun Xia, Nana Ou-yang and Bridgette joined with their brokers to expose the entertainment circle ecology behind the stars from the perspective of the workplace. From the internal meeting, you will find that the brokerage company has a clear division of labor, some are responsible for business cooperation, some are responsible for fashion, and as for film and television resources, there is also a special department responsible for docking. The daily affairs of stars are inseparable from these partners, and they control the future career direction.

  Watching the lives of stars and brokers, the most curious thing is, are the so-called people created? It may be unexpected to some viewers that Zhu Yawen, who is loved by fans, is also facing an artificial dilemma. During the meeting, it was discussed whether Zhu Yawen should take the emotional variety "Heartbeat Signal 2". The agent bluntly said that Zhu Yawen’s presence in the program was too weak. Zhu Yawen is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people with the image of "walking hormone" through dramas such as "Red Sorghum", but the agent believes that "it is obviously a sexy person, but how can Zhu Yawen make fans feel excited when his wife and children are hot in Weibo every day?"

  It can be seen that the people we see must be carefully planned and fired with a clear purpose; Everything a star says and does on the show is designed to serve people as well. This is not a practice, but the rules of the game that the whole industry has long understood.

  Question 2: The agent closest to the star is not only as simple as having idol benefits?

  The pressure of continuous rotation is so great that you cry, but you have to give the star a sense of security.

  What is the life of a broker? In life, apart from changing companies and turning against each other, there are also many examples of stars and brokers becoming friends. Some examples of agents who marry stars encourage girls who have dreams of their idols.

  White, an actor who became popular with "Soul of the Town", and Qi Zi, an agent, are not sophisticated in communicating with White, even though they are big. For example, to persuade White to broadcast live directly, he said, "I know you won’t agree". Boss Yang Tianzhen directly asked White if he needed to change people. "White, who is in a rising career, needs more experienced brokers, while Qizi, who has been in business for a short time, is not fully qualified." In fact, brokers are not only close to idols, but also need to provide reliable services with enough professionalism.

  Journalists often deal with stars, and they have to go through the broker’s "pass" first. The "difficult" agent will help the artist to block out many complicated things, and also maintain the image of the star through many requirements. When the star has a public opinion crisis, it is especially a test of the public relations ability of the brokerage team. How to make stars speak at the right time and keep silent at the right time all test professionalism.

  Question 3: What should the broker do when he meets a star who doesn’t "cooperate"?

  In addition to crisis public relations to reverse public opinion, we should also persuade stars to "speak less"

  In the program, Yang Tianzhen and the company’s brokerage team mentioned at the meeting that the biggest problem of Yuqi Zhang, who was riddled with divorce gossip, was that she didn’t play cards according to common sense, which made the brokerage team passive and "created an opportunity and ushered in a dilemma". This directly led to the current business inquiries (that is, business cooperation) in Yuqi Zhang have stopped.

  People who eat melons should still remember that Yuqi Zhang went to divorce because of her husband’s accusation of domestic violence and the exposure of marital conflicts. The powerful brokerage team miraculously helped her reverse the trend of public opinion by setting up a woman who dares to love and hate. However, news of their remarriage appeared, and the onlookers felt that they had been "fooled". Then spread all kinds of gossip, even marital infidelity, Yuqi Zhang responded in honest and frank, Weibo. The tug-of-war with her ex-husband exhausted the public. Faced with such a repeated public image, it is too difficult for the team to create a convincing person for her.

  The program faces this topic directly, pointing out that Yuqi Zhang, who is impulsive and always doesn’t play by common sense, is hard to be "restrained". Xiao Yuya, the agent, gets along quite artistically with Yuqi Zhang. She needs to "converge" on such an embarrassing topic when chatting with Yuqi Zhang. She loves to eat, and she chooses to outflank the topic while eating hot pot.

  The work is the best personal design.

  After the program was broadcast, some netizens posted a post asking, if it were you, would you like to sign up for such a company? The highest praise reply is very intriguing: "If I am an actor, I won’t. If I am a star, I will."

  Yang Tianzhen was asked in the program, "Do you have an 800 marketing number?"? Subsequently, the controversy of "leading customers to set up" was triggered, and she shed tears at the company’s 5 th annual meeting. There is also public opinion that this reality show "poison tongue" is Yang Tianzhen’s "whitewashing conference".

  Last year, Zhu Yawen won the championship in "Coming to the Sound", and the dubbing of "Baby" stunned fans. This year, she was officially declared as a permanent guest of the hit variety "Run". However, in recent years, film and television works have not impressed the audience deeply. Some netizens questioned that spring and summer used to be radiant when they took the film at a young age, but now they are wasted in variety shows and become "mediocre." When positioning artists, we often consider the solidified marketing positioning, but ignore the individuality of artists to some extent. Some netizens bluntly said, "There are good-looking dramas when eating every day, and there are good songs to listen to when walking. I hope to know artists from my works instead of Weibo’s hot search and headlines."

  The insiders believe that it is not long-term to rely on the establishment of people. It provides artists with staged heat at most. After repeated operations several times, the artist’s freshness is almost squeezed. Marketing this matter is too much. As a profession with great commercial value, the artist’s image naturally needs to be carefully polished, highlighting his personal characteristics, but the design of people should also conform to his own reality, and it is unsustainable to force people to design. There are countless examples of the collapse of the entertainment industry.

  Yangzi Evening News/Yangyan reporter Zhang Nan

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The total box office of new films on New Year’s Day broke 1 billion, and the top films were hot, but the marketing of "Snow" was mixed.

Say goodbye to 2023 and welcome 2024. Many people choose to spend it in the cinema this year.
The Red Star Capital Bureau noticed that with many new films entering the market, the 2024 movie New Year’s Day file was extremely lively. According to the data of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of 14: 00 on December 31st, the total box office (including screening and pre-sale) of new films on New Year’s Day in 2024 exceeded 1 billion. Among them, "Twinkle, twinkle, bright stars" and "The annual meeting can’t stop! "Stealth" is temporarily listed in the top three at the box office.
According to Lighthouse Professional APP
Top box office is hot
But the effect of "snowing" is mixed.
December 30th, the first day of the New Year’s Day movie. On that day, four key new films were released: Twinkle, Twinkle, Bright Stars, Golden Finger, If You Are the One 3 and Shukebeta: The Pentagon Flying saucer. Plus the previously released "Forward" and "The annual meeting can’t stop! "and other films, this year’s New Year’s Day movie market is full of excitement.
According to the lighthouse data, "Twinkle, Twinkle, Twinkle, Bright Stars" won the single-day box office championship on the first day of New Year’s Day with great advantage. On the first day of release, the box office of the film reached 224 million yuan, accounting for 47.9% of the box office. Cat’s Eye predicts that the total box office of the film will reach 1.24 billion yuan. After the film was released, it broke a number of movie history records, and won the single-day box office record of China movie history New Year’s Eve movie, China movie history New Year’s Eve fantasy movie and China movie history New Year’s Day movie.
As of press time, the box office of Twinkle, Twinkle and Bright Stars has reached 503 million yuan, far exceeding the second and third place, and the second place "The annual meeting can’t stop! The box office was 183 million yuan, and the third place, Stealth, was 151 million yuan.
It is worth mentioning that the creativity of the film "Twinkle, Twinkle, Bright Stars" in marketing is quite eye-catching. At the beginning of the pre-sale, the film organized a "snow field" with the opening time of 13:14 in thousands of cinemas across the country, and the creativity of the cinema to float snow attracted a large number of viewers to buy tickets. According to many media reports, it is almost hard to get a ticket for some "snow field" events. There are also many cinemas that purchase their own snow-making equipment and organize screenings in the snow field.
But what is embarrassing is that after the marketing ended, many netizens spoke out. Because of the different equipment, some "snowing" on the scene is beautiful and some are embarrassing, and some cinemas have problems with snow-making equipment, which has poor presentation effect and is accused of being full of embarrassment. Some netizens lamented that they had to wash their hair and clothes when they went home, and some netizens were distressed by the cleaning staff of the cinema.
Box office sprint
These film companies become winners.
With the popularity of New Year’s Day movies, film-related listed companies continue to benefit.
Counting the producers behind the New Year movies, we can see many companies such as Alibaba Pictures (01060.HK), Bona Pictures (001330.SZ), Wanda Pictures, China Films (600977.SH), Cat’s Eye, and iQiyi Pictures.
Among them, Golden Finger, directed by Zhuang Wenqiang and starring Tony Leung Chiu Wai and Andy Lau, was produced by Emperor Film and Cat’s Eye, released by Cat’s Eye and China Film, and jointly released by Hengdian Film and Television (603103.SH).
According to Lighthouse Professional APP
The annual meeting can’t stop! Producers include Jiaying Spring, Cat’s Eye, Taobao Film and other listed companies’ China films, and co-producers include Confucian and Italian films.
At present, the popular film "Stealth" is produced by Alibaba Pictures. One of the producers of "Three Battalions" supervised by Chen Sicheng is Wanda Pictures. The "Tang Detective" series and "manslaughter" series jointly launched by Wanda Pictures and Chen Sicheng have achieved good box office results. "Three Battalions" was released for 15 days, and the box office exceeded 500 million yuan.
This year, the producers of Xiaogang Feng’s new film If You Are the One 3 mainly include two listed companies, China Film and Huayi Brothers (300027.SZ). However, among the new films, the box office did not squeeze into the forefront. As of press time, the film’s single-day box office was about 36.23 million yuan, ranking sixth in the box office list.
In addition to the established film and television companies, there are many internet film companies and cutting-edge film companies that participated in the previous New Year’s Day stalls. For example, Across the Furious Sea, whose producers include Cat’s Eye and Taobao Film, two companies that started with ticketing; "Twinkle, twinkle, bright stars", produced by Cat’s Eye and iQiyi Film.
Institutions are optimistic about the performance of film stocks in the market.
It is expected that the annual box office will hit 55 billion yuan.
Institutions are generally optimistic about the performance of film stocks in the market.
Huajin Securities believes that the theme lineup of Lunar New Year movies is rich, and dark horse movies are expected to appear, which will stimulate market growth.
Dongguan Securities believes that the film market is expected to continue to pick up, driven by the supply of high-quality works and schedule dividends. In the investment direction, it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the film market, focusing on cinema companies with greater performance flexibility and head content production companies with rich project reserves under the box office recovery.
Wanlian Securities recently said that cinemas will resume operation in 2023, and policies and measures to expand domestic demand and promote consumption will continue to exert their strength. As an important scene of offline consumption, movies are showing a good recovery trend, with major schedules exceeding expectations, and New Year’s Day schedules have a New Year’s atmosphere. Diversified film types will achieve full coverage of the audience and be optimistic about the overall performance of the schedules.
Since the beginning of this year, the film market in China has recovered significantly. The Spring Festival has made outstanding achievements, and the summer box office has exceeded 20.6 billion yuan, breaking the record of the highest box office, the highest number of people and the total number of times in the summer file of China Film History. Many institutions in the industry expect that the current lineup of Lunar New Year movies is rich and powerful, which is expected to help the box office hit 55 billion yuan.
Editor Yang Cheng
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Perfect World: Board Meeting held on December 19th.

Every AI newsletter,Perfect World (SZ 002624, closing price: 13.5 yuan) announced on the evening of December 19 that the 21st meeting of the fifth board of directors of the company was held on December 19, 2023 by combining on-site and communication. The Proposal on Amending the Articles of Association and other related systems was reviewed.

From January to June, 2023, the operating income of Perfect World consisted of games accounting for 81.71% and film and television drama production accounting for 17.15%.

The chairman of Perfect World is Chi Yufeng, male, 52 years old, with a doctorate education background; The president is Lu Xiaoyin, male, 44 years old, with a master’s degree background.

As of press time, the market value of Perfect World is 26.2 billion yuan.

1. In the past 30 days, Perfect World’s northbound capital holdings decreased by 9,335,600 shares, accounting for 0.51% of the outstanding shares;
2. No organization has conducted research on the perfect world in the past 30 days.

Every headline (nbdtoutiao)-The Jishishan earthquake in Gansu has killed 126 people! A large amount of mud poured into a village after the earthquake and some people were trapped! The reporter directly hit the scene: rescue vehicles from neighboring provinces rushed to the disaster area, full of rescue equipment.

(Reporter Wang Yuli)

Disclaimer: The contents and data in this article are for reference only, and do not constitute investment advice. Please check before use. Operate accordingly at your own risk.

national business daily

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four

In international football, the Japanese football team recently won a brilliant victory, defeating the strong enemy in North America with a remarkable advantage of 4-1, which not only showed their strong strength in both offensive and defensive ends, but also highlighted their tacit teamwork. This victory is not only a recognition of the Japanese team, but also an affirmation and encouragement of the strength of the whole Asian football.

The reason why Japanese football can stand at the peak of world football today is largely due to the profound changes in the youth training system of the Japanese Football Association. They have absorbed the advanced concepts and training methods of international football and cultivated many players with comprehensive skills and strong tactical awareness. On the court, these players built an almost impeccable defense line with their unparalleled teamwork and mutual understanding.

Furthermore, while actively participating in international competitions, the Japan Football Association has also conducted extensive cooperation and exchanges with other football powers. Facing the world-class opponents, Japanese players not only honed their own skills, but also learned valuable experience by analyzing the opponent’s tactical layout, thus constantly improving their own tactical system. It is this international vision and open attitude that makes Japanese football more and more dazzling on the international stage.

As an important representative of Asian football, this leap of Japan is not only their own, but also a remarkable proof of the strength of the whole Asian football. Their success showed the world the rapid progress and unlimited potential of Asian football and won more respect and praise for Asian football.

However, behind all these achievements, it is the result of the long-term unremitting efforts and exploration of the Japanese Football Association. They constantly reformed and optimized the youth football training system, focused on cultivating players’ basic skills and diversified abilities, and established a scientific and efficient youth training model, which provided a solid cornerstone for the rise of Japanese football.

Behind such dazzling achievements in Japanese football are the contributions of many people who have paid silently. From coaches to club staff, from the parents of players to loyal fans, everyone’s efforts and support are an important part of the glory of Japanese football. To sum up, the Japanese football team’s great victory not only demonstrated their excellent ability and team spirit at both ends of the offensive and defensive, but also further consolidated their position in the world football. The continuous reform and optimization of the Japanese Football Association, coupled with extensive exchanges with international football, have created a team with exquisite skills and mature tactics. Their success is not only the recognition of a single team, but also an affirmation of the strength of the whole Asian football.