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What is the baseball theory that benefits Buffett for life?

Buffett has a PS photo hanging on the wall of his office.

In the photo, Buffett’s head was put on a baseball player’s body, and there was a matrix of colorful balls marked with numbers. In the documentary, the old man talked about this photo, Kan Kan, and talked about how this baseball player inspired his investment philosophy and benefited him for life.

This baseball player is Ted Williams. He has created many baseball records and won numerous awards. He is called "the greatest hitter in history", "the god of hitting" and "the strongest on the surface".

Why does Buffett take a baseball player as his investment mentor? A sports player, how to teach stock gods to invest money? What is the mysterious connection between the method of sports and the method of making money by investing?

In the 1997 Open Letter from the Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway to All Shareholders, Buffett said:

We (Berkshire Hathaway) will practice Ted Williams-level self-discipline. In his monograph "The Science of Strike", Ted explained his way of strike in detail.

He divided the shots in front of him into 77 squares, each of which was the size of a baseball. Only when the baseball flies to the best grid will he swing and hit the ball. At this time, his hit rate is as high as 40%.

And if the ball flies to his worst grid, that is, the corner below the hitting zone, his hitting rate will quickly drop to 23%.

In other words, if you wait for a good opportunity, you can enter the baseball hall of fame; If you don’t distinguish, you will only become an ordinary athlete if you watch the ball and play.

Why can he become the strongest baseball batter on the surface? What is the doorway behind his personal growth? How to make a novice baseball player get his growth mentality, reduce the number of pits and grow up quickly?

Ted Williams wrote a book about his own way of hitting, and called it The Science of Hitting.

The gap between ordinary baseball players and Ted, the "God of Baseball", was summed up by him as a three-step scientific methodology:

1. Hitting management(to get a good ball to hit);

Step 2 think correctly(proper thinking);

3. Practice, practice and practice again(to be quicker with the bat)。

Rule #1: batting managementTake a stick and hit a flying baseball. Do you still need management? Isn’t it enough to see the ball fly over, play hard and try to play your best every time?

Ted, the god of baseball, doesn’t think so In his opinion,When you know what not to play, it is the beginning of real playing.

This principle is similar to my previous reading experience. "When you know what books not to read, it is the beginning of real reading".

Yes, restraint and self-discipline based on scientific management are the essence of the first rule. Ted’s batting management is like this:

1. Identify the ball by divisionTed divided the batting area into 77 squares, each of which is the size of a baseball.

2. Speak with data and know yourself: 77 grids are divided into several different areas, and their technical ability is accurately quantified with data. The red area in the center is the happy zone where he hits the ball, with a hitting rate as high as 40% (the strongest in history, and no one has surpassed it at present), while in the gray area in the lower right corner, the hitting rate drops rapidly, only 23%.

This is a way to speak with data and recognize the boundaries of your ability.

3. Strict self-discipline (discipline, discipline, discipline)Play only the best shots in the best hitting area. Only when the ball enters the strike zone will he swing out.

Rule #2: think correctly

Everyone knows the importance of thinking. From the beginning of entering the classroom in grade one, the teacher has been tirelessly teaching: think hard and think hard.

However, Ted, the god of baseball, doesn’t think so. He thinks that thinking, especially the correct thinking method, is the premise and foundation of effective action.

The right method is so critical that: "If you think in the wrong way, the harder you work, the worse it will be.. "

And behind the correct thinking, it is such a principle:

Sports is also a science.Although it is not a precise science that can be completely quantified, accurately predicted and reproduced by experiments like mathematics and physics.

There should also be a set of scientific methodology for athletes’ personal improvement.Let the athletes’ efforts be more effective, and the efforts can be accumulated and accumulated iteratively.

So, after highly disciplined ball selection, Ted also has his own set of principles when hitting the ball:

1. Improve "observing opponents" to a strategic position;The first ball is absolutely only observed without swinging. He needs to understand the pitcher’s thinking and state that day through careful and keen observation and better adjust his hitting strategy.

2. Think correctly and systematically:On the basis of high-intensity practice, a set of hitting technique methodology suitable for you is refined and summarized.

The Science of Strike, published in 1970, has become a "Bible for baseball players", and ambitious baseball heroes have studied it carefully because Ted has refined a set of relatively scientific, reproducible and practical systematic methodology in this field that is difficult to be scientific and systematic with personal practice and thinking.

Whether it is standing position, hitting angle, timing management, hitting point, mentality adjustment, coping with mistakes, stress management and peacetime exercise, Ted has discussed them one by one and summed up his own methodology. He is really a "meta-problem solver".

The above are some screenshots taken from the book. If baseball teenagers read this pamphlet, they should feel like teenagers wandering in the rivers and lakes in martial arts novels, and suddenly turn to the secret book of Jiuyang Shengong in the cave.

Rule #3: Practice, practice and practice.

The third principle seems to be a cliche, and many people will "cut" it. "In the end, it really tells us to work hard!"

Yes, I still have to work hard.

However, emphasizing efforts does not mean that the method is not good enough. On the contrary, on the basis of basically correct scientific methods, it is the only way for all outstanding people to go all out without reservation, and constantly iterate methods in the process.

For a small number of people, they are smart enough to realize sooner or later that diligence is not the best virtue, but the best strategy.

Really smart people are smart enough to choose to be diligent.Ted, who created the baseball cheats, is the strongest baseball batter on the surface. He gets up at 6 o’clock every day and practices catching the ball 300 times a week. In his own words, "No matter how famous a batter is, no one practices his swing more than Ted Williams."

He is really diligent enough to really practice grinding blisters on his hands. After the blisters are worn out, he will bleed profusely. Then the cocoons on his hands will become thicker and thicker, and his skill will be improved day by day.

Unless we are really talking about the achievements of the world champion level, we don’t have to consider personal IQ and talent. And the relationship between personal efforts and scientific methods, basically sum up:

The real master of learning is the scientific method and the efforts beyond ordinary people.

Ordinary people, methods and efforts are all "average". You know, "just so-so".

Poor scum, the method is wrong, and no matter how hard you try, it won’t help.

The road to the growth of a master is like this: after searching up and down, you get a set of growth methods, but you still have to rely on your own hard training.

Andrew Nieman is a young and ambitious conservatory student in the movie "Burst Drummer". His goal is to become the strongest jazz drummer in history, like his idol Charlie Parker. "I want to be one of THE GREATS !"

However, it is far from enough to get the guidance of the top teachers. A person must be enterprising enough to practice himself to this extent.

I want to be one of the Greats, "I am willing to pay far more efforts than ordinary people and pay 200% sweat and tears". This alone distinguishes the real uncompromising enterprising from a large number of "oral learners".

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Games, the new engine of economy?

Image source @ vision china

Wen | Gulfstream Economic Review

In the middle of the year, all kinds of high-standard exhibitions in China are heating up.

On June 18th, the 29th Beijing International Book Fair (hereinafter referred to as the "Expo") ended at the Beijing National Convention Center.

This Expo will open an online publishing exhibition area for the first time.Let online games and online literature board the stage of international cultural exchange for the first time.

This was rare in the past.

It is reported that the exhibition also set up an "online publishing forum" for the first time. At the forum, many leaders in Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China made keynote speeches and praised the positive value of various games.

Eight global leading game and digital publishing companies, including Tencent, Sony, Netease, Ubisoft, Sanqi Entertainment, Fist Game, Reading and Supercell, were invited to attend to show related technologies, innovative practices and experience interaction.

Game manufacturers were collectively invited to participate in the exhibition and appeared in the first online publishing development forum, which was praised by the leaders of Publicity Department of the Communist Party of China.

This indicates that online publishing, represented by online literature and games, has received official attention and attention.Games, as an important part of cultural exchanges between China and foreign countries, have been given a positive attitude by the government.

Coincidentally, on June 7th, the 19th ICIF, Sanqi Entertainment, Netease and other game companies were also actively demonstrating their unique advantages of "digital technology helps cultural communication".

Game companies frequently appear in various high-standard exhibitions, with the following background:

This year, the game industry ushered in multiple positive factors and was placed in an important position as an "economic driving factor".

The game industry is on the rise:Normalization of edition number, normalization of public opinion and clarification of property rights.

Looking back on the first six months of this year, the game industry continued to usher in good news.

First of all, the version number is normalized.

Since 2023, the General Administration of Press and Publication has issued 441 domestic game editions.

The overall number of domestic version numbers has also gradually stabilized, and the number of version numbers issued in the last five months has been around 90. With the normalization of the version number, the uncertainty of the policy side of the new online tour is reduced, and the certainty of the supply side is warmer.

After that, the trend of public opinion was "positive".

On November 16th last year, People’s Daily published "Digging the value of the video game industry is now or never". On February 16th this year, WeChat official account, the "Xinhua Daily Telegraph" sponsored by Xinhua News Agency, published "Don’t ignore the scientific and technological value of the game industry". Xinhua News Agency and People’s Daily Online, two major central media, both made positive voices to the game industry from the perspective of science and technology.

Today, this positive trend continues to go deep into the deeper level of law and property rights.

Recently, some cases of head SLG game "playing infringement" and "skin-changing infringement" in the game industry have been exposed. These cases mean: the game industry, the clarity of intellectual property rights.

Normalization of version number, positive public opinion, clear property rights, and the recent wave of AI in the whole game industry.

Obviously, the game industry, being promoted by various favorable factors, is becoming one of the new engines of the domestic economy, and may even be one of the main engines.

According to the statistics of game gyro, Q1 of 40 A-share game companies has accumulated revenue of over 24.7 billion yuan and accumulated profit of 3.661 billion yuan. Among them, about 73% companies achieved profitability.

The revenues of five companies, Sanqi Entertainment, century huatong, Perfect World, Wolong Real Estate and Kunlun Wanwei, account for half of the total revenues of A-share game companies. Sanqi Entertainment, which has the highest revenue and net profit, has a Q1 revenue of 3.764 billion yuan and a net profit of 774 million yuan.

New industrial impetus to help the economy,

Why a game?

If we go back a little bit, just last year, the whole game industry was still struggling.

According to the China Game Industry Report, the actual sales revenue of the game market in China in 2022 was 265.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.629 billion yuan or 10.33%.

Among them, the actual sales revenue of self-developed games in the domestic market was 222.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.07%; The actual sales revenue of self-developed games in overseas markets was $17.346 billion, down 3.70% year-on-year.

At the same time, the game industry continues to cause controversy-doubts about the game industry will emerge every once in a while.

This year, the whole industry has made a 180-degree turn. Last year’s industry was gloomy, as if it were a lifetime ago.

Behind the normalization of edition number, the positive public opinion and the clarification of property rights is the support of "upper will" In the final analysis, it is still three points:

1, the game relationship Internet industry employment situation

The development of the game industry is related to the employment of young people. The industries closely related to the game industry, such as short video, live broadcast, sports events, game mobile phones, and game public cloud, are also important areas for young people’s employment.

Recruitment platform Hunting Big Data Research Institute’s data on recruitment specials in 25 cities shows that in March this year,Talents in IT/ Internet/game industries in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are the most active in the recruitment markets of the two cities.

Boosting the game industry will directly benefit upstream and downstream enterprises, especially the head and shoulder Internet companies that absorb employment.

For example, Android mobile phone camp, China, rice, O, V and other manufacturers, a large part of Internet revenue comes from game sales and intermodal transportation.

Taking the advertising industry, the downstream of the game industry, as an example, AppGrowing data shows that during Q1, 2023, TOP1, a hot investment industry for buying advertisements, ranked second and third (advertising accounted for 18.54%), cultural entertainment (advertising accounted for 14.01%) and social marriage (advertising accounted for 11.02%). Behind the advertising industry are advertising platforms such as Byte, Tencent, bilibili and Aauto Quicker.

It can be seen that the rise and fall of the game industry is related to the money bag of the Internet industry in China, and it is also related to the employment situation of young people.

2. Games help technological innovation.

On February 16th, WeChat official account, the "Xinhua Daily Telegraph" sponsored by Xinhua News Agency, published "Don’t Ignore the Scientific and Technological Value of the Game Industry".The article said: the game industry has been inseparable from cutting-edge technology since its birth.

From the initial invention to show and verify the performance of computers, to the experimental field of "black technology", and then to the rapid integration into the development of the real economy, games and technological innovation have always inspired each other and developed together.

With the continuous development of game technology, the application of related technologies has already broken through the game industry itself, and has also played a role in many fields such as AI and VR.

At present, the most representative direction of technological innovation is AI.Recently, with the wave of AI, the attention of game stocks continues to heat up, which also shows that the application and landing of AI in the game industry has attracted much attention.

Up to now, game manufacturers such as Tencent, Netease, Mihayou, Perfect World, Sanqi Mutual Entertainment, Kunlun Wanwei, China Mobile Games, Morning Light, Lilith, Kaiying Network, Giants, Youzu, Heartbeat and Palm Fun have tried AIGC one after another.

For example, based on the decision-making intelligence Al Juewu, Tencent has reduced the numerical balance deviation of the glory of the king from 1.05% to 0.68%.

The intelligent NPC system is applied in Netease’s "Going Against the Water". Intelligent NPC can freely generate dialogues with players, and give their own logical behavior feedback based on the contents of the dialogues.

Perfect World’s end-game "Zhu Xian World" uses AI calculus technology to realize global weather control and detailed changes.

What is the specific effect of technological innovation (especially AI technology) on the game industry?Take Sanqi Entertainment as an example. The company has an intelligent delivery platform "Quantum" and an intelligent operation analysis platform "Tianji".

The "Quantum" system has been connected to more than 20 mainstream media platforms and channels in the world, and at the same time, it supports more than 300 games to be released online. More than 200,000 product launch plans have been created, and the time spent on online advertising of game products has been shortened from 6 hours to 30 minutes, and the efficiency has been improved by more than 10 times. In some areas, the proportion of intelligent delivery has exceeded 60%.

Besides the game itself,The "spillover effect" of games to help technological innovation should be paid more attention, especially in the real economy.

For example, in the field of building construction, game engines are widely used in architectural design, construction management, smart cities, ancient building restoration and so on.

3. Games help to revive traditional culture.

In the process of spreading traditional culture, games have a subtle influence and a far-reaching influence, and can show the charm of China traditional culture in the process of globalization.

At the Expo, we can see an ancient simulated business game inspired by The Riverside Scene at Qingming Festival-"Call Me Big Boss" appear in a prominent position in the exhibition hall.

The artistic style of the game is unique, the background and architecture are depicted in ink painting style, and the characters are painted in a more modern style, with profound cultural heritage and unique oriental aesthetics.

In the "Digitization of Traditional Instrumental Music" applet experience area of tencent games Exhibition Area, participants can choose their favorite songs or play freely, or touch the screen with the music score to complete the exclusive chime movement.

The chime is based on the high-precision digital sampling and restoration of the 1:1 copy of Zeng Houyi’s chime.

Go to sea in groups:The game industry is mature "cluster effect+spillover effect".

As we all know, the game industry, if you don’t go out to sea, you will be out.

In recent years, a major trend of the game industry going out to sea is from "single-handedly fighting" to "group cooperation".

Typically, Tencent has deployed a large number of game companies around the world through capital operation and strong alliance on the other hand, and frequently ran out of explosions.

Behind the successful launch of Nikke in Japan and South Korea, its developer Shift Up and Tencent hold 20% of the shares, which is the case of Tencent’s capital operation; The success of "Fantasy Tower" going to sea is a case of perfect R&D+Tencent’s strong combination model.

Another game manufacturer that has made great achievements in the sea is the mutual entertainment of Sanqi. Sanqi’s mutual entertainment business went to sea very early, but compared with China, it was only in the past two or three years that overseas made a breakthrough.

According to the financial report, in 2022, Sanqi Entertainment achieved overseas revenue of 5.994 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of the total revenue. In the statistics of a number of third-party organizations, Sanqi Entertainment seems to have secured the top three in the revenue list of China’s game-going enterprises.

Different from Tencent’s capital operation and strong alliance, small and medium-sized game manufacturers who cooperate with Sanqi Entertainment often have no capital exchanges.

In recent years, the overseas "explosive" games of Sanqi Entertainment mostly distribute the products of small and medium-sized manufacturers for companies. Among them, the developer of "Puzzles & Survival" is Easy Entertainment Network; The developer of "Song of the City on the Cloud" is Shiyue Network; The developer of "Call Me Big Boss" is a fun game.

According to official website, an entertainment network, as of May, 2023, the highest monthly flow of Puzzles & Survival exceeded 350 million, with a cumulative flow of 7.8 billion.

From the performance of the above products, we can find that the success rate of commercialization of Sanqi mutual entertainment products has been greatly improved through in-depth cooperation and communication with small and medium-sized R&D parties in the early stage to select excellent games and jointly decide the direction of play and development strategy.

According to the relevant person in charge of Sanqi Mutual Entertainment, in the early stage of this sea game project, the overseas operation team of Sanqi Mutual Entertainment will enter the R&D team and give specific suggestions.

During the operation, it will follow up the user feedback in time, adopt the user’s opinions in the game iteration, and feed back the R&D optimization.

This mode of relying on the understanding of overseas markets at the distribution and operation level and feeding back to game research and development and decision-making has become one of the core competitiveness of Sanqi Mutual Entertainment.

This is why Sanqi Entertainment and small and medium-sized game manufacturers are willing to achieve mutual success in overseas markets and join hands with john young.

In this paper, Gulfstream Economic Review observed that:The "Online Publishing Forum" was set up for the first time at the Expo, and eight top-level game companies participated.

It is of great significance for the Expo to open an online publishing exhibition area for the first time, so that online games and online literature can be on the stage of international cultural exchange for the first time.

Behind this is: the game industry is booming, the version number is normalized, the public opinion is positive, and the property rights are clear-the game industry is being promoted by various favorable factors and is becoming one of the new engines of the domestic economy.

The core of the game’s contribution to the economy lies in: the game is related to the employment situation of the Internet industry, and at the same time, the game contributes to technological innovation and the revival of traditional culture.

In terms of games going out to sea, we find that the game industry has moved from "single-handedness" to "group cooperation", which is the embodiment of "cluster effect+spillover effect" after the game industry matures.

Of course, there are still some problems in the whole game industry that need to be solved urgently.

For example, the impact of AI technology on the entire game industry will inevitably have advantages and disadvantages, among which the more prominent disadvantages include: replacing some low-end repeatable jobs and affecting employment; As well as the use of AIGC hype concept by individual listed companies, it has attracted regulatory attention.

All the above progress and problems are the result of the common development of the internal and external environment of the industry. Problems in development still need to be solved by development.

There is not a winter that is insurmountable, and there is not a spring that will not come.