[car home Industry] car home will start to push the weekly report in the future, pay attention to the important events in the automobile industry circle, and take you to quickly understand what happened this week. Readers are welcome to put forward their opinions and communicate with each other. This issue is about the events of September 29-October 11, 2024, that is, the 40 th and 41 ST weeks.
Let’s take a quick look at what happened in these two weeks:
1. The National Day auto market is hot: orders from more than 8 brands exceeded 10,000 units, and BYD broke through 160,000 units, which was far ahead, mainly due to government subsidies and discounts from car companies, and jointly created the National Day auto market boom.
2. In terms of new forces, the new car of Guangzhou Automobile Ai ‘an has been pre-sold and entered the 150,000-yuan intelligent driving track, which will compete with MONA of Tucki, marking that advanced autonomous driving is gradually entering the popularization stage. Anhui state-owned assets earned five times in Weilai, and then added 3.3 billion yuan to Weilai. After the blessing, Weilai’s profit became more urgent.
3. Traditional car companies, Jianghuai Automobile turned losses into profits this year, and deducted non-negative profits after seven years. This week, it is planned to raise 4.9 billion yuan to invest in "respecting the boundary", repel marginal business and focus on new energy car owners.
4. Overseas, Tesla’s sales volume resumed growth in the third quarter, but there was still great pressure on its performance throughout the year. The Robotaxi conference was less than expected, and the market had predicted or reached a valuation of 2 trillion US dollars. Stellantis and Volkswagen lowered their annual performance expectations because of the competitive pressure from China car companies. The EU voted to formally pass the additional tariffs on electric vehicles in China, and the tariffs are not strong enough to stifle profits. The EU’s containment of electric vehicles in China is not limited to this tariff.
I. Industry Events
1. The new car of Guangzhou Automobile Ai ‘an opened for pre-sale and entered the 150,000-yuan intelligent driving track.
1). The sales volume of Grade A pure electricity accounts for over 50%, and the intelligent penetration space is large, which can accommodate multiple explosions.
2). Advanced autonomous driving is gradually entering the popularization stage.
3). At present, Ai ‘an is in the handover period of new and old models, and its sales volume has met with bottlenecks.
On September 26th, AION RT, a new car of Guangzhou Automobile Ai ‘an, opened for pre-sale. The version with a pre-sale price of 159,800 yuan has been equipped with high-level intelligent driving capability, including urban intelligent driving, and the intelligent driving capability is gradually being "decentralized" by car companies to vehicles.
At the pre-sale conference, Xiao Yong, deputy general manager of Guangzhou Automobile Ai ‘an, said that in the "A+ class" car market with the largest number of 100,000 to 180,000, the penetration rate of advanced smart driving is less than 1% at present, and users should enjoy more dividends from market and technological development. Ai ‘an hopes to become a popularization of advanced smart driving.
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The sales of A-class compact cars account for nearly half of the total sales of passenger cars in China.
Automobile products are generally divided into A, B, C, D and other grades according to the vehicle size. The bigger the letters, the more luxurious the products. A-class cars are compact cars, and the price is generally between 100,000 and 200,000 yuan. Car companies take volume as their main purpose in this market segment. According to the data compiled by Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Car Association, in 2023, the sales of the above-mentioned price segments will account for nearly half of the total sales of passenger cars in China.
Tucki took the lead in letting high-end smart drivers enter the price below 200,000.
A month ago, Xpeng Motors just launched a new car with the label of "the only high-level intelligent driving within 200,000 yuan", and the high-level intelligent driving ability also fell in the 150,000 yuan gear. He Xiaopeng, chairman of Xpeng Motors, said at that time that the company had for the first time realized the decentralization of high-level intelligent driving ability to 150,000-yuan cars. Before that, few car companies could provide better intelligent driving experience on cars with a price of less than 200,000 yuan.
The price ranges of new products in Guangzhou Automobile Ai ‘an and Xpeng Motors overlap, will they conflict?
Similarly, the popularity of high-level intelligent driving ability is a selling point. When interviewed by the media after the conference, Xiao Yong believed that the two companies did overlap in product definition and price setting, but the A-class car market was the largest, which could accommodate multiple "explosive" models.
Tucki and An Zhi have different driving schemes.
In trying to decentralize the intelligent driving ability, Xpeng Motors has adopted a relatively low-cost pure vision scheme, without laser radar.
Ai ‘an followed the previous lidar scheme that was mostly equipped in cars with a price of more than 200,000 yuan. Lidar is beneficial to improve the fluency and safety of intelligent driving system, and it is still irreplaceable under the current technical conditions.
AION RT is equipped with lidar and NVIDIA Orin chip, and the above combination is no different from the scheme adopted by luxury models on the market. Ian believes that this scheme has been applied to many models of the company, and from the cost point of view, it can produce scale effect. Gu Huinan stressed that Ai ‘an will not sell cars at a loss.
Advanced autonomous driving is gradually entering the popularization stage.
The industry generally believes that electrification is the "first half" of the development of new energy vehicles, and the "second half" competition focuses on intelligence. At the Fortune Global 500 Summit held on the 26th, Feng Xingya, general manager of Guangzhou Automobile Group, pointed out that at present, intelligent driving ability is mostly carried on higher-priced automobile products, but its penetration rate will increase rapidly, and it may soon become a standard in the market.
Gu Huinan said that Ai ‘an hopes that every market segment can apply high-level intelligent driving technology at the fastest speed. Taking mobile phones as an example, he said that early mobile phones were once "luxury goods" and most people didn’t have the opportunity to use them, but now mobile phones have achieved popularity. He believes that advanced autonomous driving is gradually entering the stage of popularization.
At present, Ai ‘an is in the handover period of new and old models, and the sales volume has encountered bottlenecks, and it has also caught up with the slowdown in the growth of pure electric vehicles.
Founded in 2017, Ai ‘an is a new energy brand subsidiary of Guangzhou Automobile Group. Ai ‘an itself is on the eve of the handover of new and old models, and sales have encountered bottlenecks.
At present, Ai ‘an only produces pure electric vehicles, and has not yet launched plug-in hybrid vehicles and extended-range vehicles, which cannot fully respond to market demand.
In the first half of 2024, the growth rate of the domestic pure electric vehicle market slowed down, and the growth structure of the new energy vehicle market was uneven. According to the statistics of Marketline, from January to August, 2024, the domestic sales of new energy passenger cars increased by 30.9% year-on-year, among which the sales of plug-in vehicles increased by 84.2% and the sales of pure electric vehicles only increased by 9.7%.
In recent months, the rhythm of Ai ‘an products has obviously accelerated.
In recent months, before the pre-sale of new cars, Ai ‘an officially launched a new SUV model in late July. Gu Huinan once said in mid-June that Ai ‘an will enter the intensive launch period of new products in the second half of the year, and a new car will be listed every two months; On the other hand, the company will also complete product lines such as plug-in hybrid cars and extended-range cars, and related products will be listed in 2025.
Short comments:
In fact, at present, almost all independent traditional car companies have launched pure electric A-class SUV models, but few models can be accepted by the public.
Mainly due to the high cost of pure electric vehicles, and the A-class SUV models have to lower the price in the face of the price squeeze of mid-level cars, which makes it difficult to profit from them, and most of them have become a loss-making business. For this reason, there are not many car companies that treat the market carefully, and most of them are perfunctory products that change oil into electricity. Therefore, most of these models have poor sales and it is difficult to make much splash in the market.
With the new energy market becoming more and more crowded, more and more car companies have entered the A-class track with intelligent products, not only pure electric SUVs, but also pure electric cars. The quality of products will become the key to the success of this track.
2. Weilai has got another 3.3 billion yuan, and it is planned to receive it all this year.
1) Anhui state-owned assets earned five times as much in Weilai investment, and the profits were invested in other local new energy projects.
2) Li Bin: The RMB is less patient than the US dollar. With 3.3 billion yuan, the profit pressure is even greater.
On September 29th, Weilai Automobile announced that Weilai Automobile had entered into investment agreements with three strategic investors to jointly invest in Weilai Holdings, a subsidiary of Weilai Automobile (hereinafter referred to as "Weilai China"). Three strategic investors and Weilai Automobile will invest 3.3 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan respectively to subscribe for the newly issued shares of Weilai China.
The three strategic investors are Hefei Jianheng New Energy Automobile Investment Fund Partnership (Limited Partnership), Anhui High-tech Industry Investment Co., Ltd. and SDIC Investment Management Co., Ltd. All three companies are existing shareholders of Weilai China, and all of them are state-owned assets.
Prior to this transaction, Weilai Automobile held 92.1% shares of Weilai China. After the transaction is completed, the shares held by Weilai Automobile will be reduced to 88.3%, and strategic investors and other existing shareholders will jointly hold the remaining 11.7%.
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Weilai automobile equity structure
The listed entity of Weilai Automobile is registered in Cayman Islands, and Weilai China is its domestic business entity. Weilai Automobile has injected core business and related assets including vehicle R&D, supply chain and manufacturing, sales and service, and energy service into Weilai China in China. In addition, Weilai China is also the main body of RMB fund-raising for Weilai Automobile.
These three old shareholders rescued Wei Lai and rescued the ward from the ICU.
From 2019 to the beginning of 2020, Weilai Automobile was in financial difficulties, and Anhui Province and Hefei City offered assistance. In April 2020, Weilai Automobile announced the introduction of external strategic financing of 7 billion yuan. At that time, the three strategic shareholders were Hefei Construction Investment Holding (Group) Co., Ltd., SDIC Investment Management Co., Ltd. and Anhui High-tech Industry Investment Co., Ltd.
In 2019, Weilai had a huge funding gap. As of December 31, 2019, the cash and cash equivalents, restricted monetary funds and short-term investments of listed companies in Weilai US stock market were only RMB 1.06 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2019, Weilai’s sales and management expenses reached 1.55 billion yuan, and the research and development expenses were 1.03 billion yuan. This cash level can no longer support the continuous operation of the company.
In 2019, Weilai sold a total of 20,500 vehicles, with annual revenue of 7.8 billion yuan and net loss of 11.93 billion yuan. According to the sales level of 20,000 vehicles in 2019, the production capacity of 120,000 vehicles in the aforementioned Hefei plant is far from saturated.
Time and purpose of fund arrival
The above funds will be received in two phases. The announcement shows that 70% of the strategic investment amount and the investment amount of Weilai Automobile will be injected before the end of November 2024, and the rest is planned to be injected before the end of December 2024.
The company will continue to invest in technological innovation and charging and replacing infrastructure to further enhance its competitive advantage in products, services and communities.
The state-owned RMB is not as patient as the US dollar, and Weilai’s profit is more urgent.
Since its establishment, Weilai has raised a total of 17 funds. Among them, there are only two RMB investments, one is Anhui state-owned shares in 2020, and the other is the recent additional investment of 3.3 billion. The rest is invested in dollars.
In the dialogue with Yu Minhong, Li Bin once admitted: "There is a difference between dollar investors and RMB investors", and he thought that dollar investors don’t need to make profits immediately when they look at the underlying logic of the project. Like Amazon lost more than ten years, Tesla lost 16 years.
Li Bin: Anhui State-owned assets were paid back to them more than five times, and the money they earned was invested in the local new energy automobile industry.
Anhui State-owned Assets Responds to the State Council’s Call: Take on Long-term Capital
The executive meeting of the State Council held on September 18th pointed out that it is necessary to promote state-owned capital investment to become more responsible long-term capital and patient capital, and improve relevant policies and measures for state-owned capital investment, assessment, fault tolerance and withdrawal.
Anhui state-owned assets this time, it is also a strong response to this initiative.
Le Dao is the biggest attraction of Weilai this year.
In 2024, NIO, the main brand of Weilai Automobile, did not have a new car listed, and the second brand Ledao was the main attraction. On September 19th, L60, the first model of Ledao, was officially launched. On September 28th, Ledao L60 began to be delivered.
Li Bin said at the Global Smart Car Industry Conference (2024GIV) held on September 29th that the orders of Ledao L60 far exceeded expectations, and the main task at present is to improve production capacity and delivery capacity.
Weilai hopes that Ledao L60 will deliver 10,000 vehicles per month in December 2024 and over 20,000 vehicles per month in 2025.
Weilai’s loss in the second quarter of this year narrowed sharply.
In the second quarter of 2024, Weilai Automobile recorded a revenue of 17.44 billion yuan, an increase of 98.9% and 76.1% respectively.
The gross profit margin of automobile business reached 12.2%, up 6 and 3 percentage points from the same period and the previous month.
Weilai Automobile recorded a net loss of 5.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.7%.
The company’s cash and cash equivalents, restricted cash, short-term investments and long-term deposits amounted to 41.6 billion yuan.
Weilai expects the delivery of automobiles in the third quarter of 2024 to be between 61,000 and 63,000, an increase of about 10.0% to 13.7% compared with the same quarter of 2023; The total revenue ranged from 19.109 billion yuan (US$ 2.630 billion) to 19.669 billion yuan (US$ 2.707 billion), an increase of about 0.2% to 3.2% compared with the same quarter in 2023.
Short comments:
Weilai has sold more than 20,000 vehicles for four consecutive months, and now the new brand-walking model Ledao has started delivery again, and the company’s subsequent delivery volume is expected to increase again. In the second quarter, the gross profit margin of the whole vehicle was 12.2%, which increased by 6 percentage points. If the monthly sales volume of 30,000 and the gross profit margin of 20% are added, Weilai brand has great hope to achieve profitability.
3. Jianghuai Automobile plans to raise 4.9 billion yuan to invest in "respecting the boundary", repel the marginal business and focus on the main business.
1) Turn losses into profits in the first half of the year, ending the history of deducting non-profit into negative for seven consecutive years.
2) repel the marginal non-automobile business and focus on "respecting the world"
3) The success of the literary circle has its own special historical environment. How to copy it to the other three circles has multiple challenges.
On September 30th, JAC released a pre-plan, revealing that JAC plans to issue shares not exceeding 30% of the total share capital to specific investors, raising 4.9 billion yuan to invest in the company’s high-end intelligent electric platform development project.
Jianghuai expects a total investment of 5.87 billion yuan, of which 4.9 billion yuan will be raised. Before the raised funds are in place, JAC will invest in self-raised funds first, and then replace them according to the procedures after the raised funds are in place. The insufficient funds required for the project will be solved by JAC.
On September 30th, JAC’s board of directors reviewed and approved the stock increase plan. The plan also needs to be approved by the state-owned assets examination and approval unit, reviewed by the shareholders’ meeting and agreed by the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission.
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Huawei’s "HarmonyOS Zhixing" was formerly known as "Intelligent Car Selection".
In April, 2021, Huawei Terminal and Cyrus reached a cooperation. At the end of the same year, the two sides launched the brand "Wen Jie", which jointly shaped Huawei’s "smart car selection" business model.
In this mode, Huawei dominates product definition, design and terminal sales, and also participates in production quality control. The vehicle company is similar to Huawei’s foundry.
Jianghuai is the fourth partner of HarmonyOS Zhixing, known as "Zunjie".
In November 2023, the smart car selection model was upgraded to Huawei HarmonyOS Smart Car Technology Ecological Alliance.
On December 1st, 2023, Jianghuai Automobile and Huawei Terminal signed the Cooperation Agreement on Intelligent New Energy Vehicles, officially becoming the fourth partner of Huawei’s "HarmonyOS Zhixing". The other two cooperative car companies of Huawei HarmonyOS Zhixing are BAIC Group and Chery Automobile respectively, and the cooperative brands are called Enjoying World and Intelligence World.
In July, 2024, Yu Chengdong, chairman of Huawei Terminal, said that the brand that cooperated with Jianghuai Automobile was named "Zunjie".
Jianghuai Automobile is investing in the construction of a new energy vehicle exclusive factory for Zunjie.
It is expected to be completed in 2025. According to the project EIA report released by the Anhui Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment in March 2023, the first model of Jianghuai Automobile and Huawei is MPV, with an estimated annual production capacity of 35,000 vehicles.
There is no successful precedent for domestic car companies to build ultra-luxury brands.
In 2023, BYD launched a new brand "Looking Up" which is positioned at the level of one million yuan. The sales of the first model U8 were bright at first, but it soon showed signs of decline. From June to August, 2024, Wangwang U8 sold 418, 439 and 303 vehicles respectively.
After seven consecutive years of losses, Jianghuai finally turned a profit in the first half of this year.
Jianghuai’s deducted non-net profit has started a difficult journey since it achieved a profit of 844 million yuan in 2016. In 2017, the company’s performance turned sharply and fell into a quagmire of losses, with a non-net profit of negative 93 million yuan. In this year, the company’s revenue fell by 6.33% year-on-year, and its net profit plummeted by 62.83%. Then until 2023, the non-net profit has been negative, with a loss of 7 years.
In 2019, the non-net loss of Jianghuai Automobile was once sharply narrowed. On the one hand, it is because of cost control such as substantial salary reduction, on the other hand, there is new progress in Weilai automobile cooperation project. Production and delivery of ES6, with cumulative delivery of more than 20,000 vehicles of ES8 and ES6. In the two years from 2018 to 2019, the compensation and processing fee paid by Weilai to Jianghuai Automobile was 600 million yuan.
Since 2020, the company’s non-net profit has fallen into an accelerated decline channel, until it fell to a new low of negative 2.795 billion yuan in the past decade in 2022. This year, the company faced multiple challenges such as the macroeconomic downturn and the shortage of spare parts, and both sales and performance declined. Among them, the total operating income decreased by 9.26% year-on-year, and the net profit plummeted by 8.9 times.
Past losses are still heavily dependent on subsidies, and this year’s profit is no exception.
In the three years from 2021 to 2023, JAC received government subsidies of 2.005 billion yuan, 1.205 billion yuan and 1.34 billion yuan respectively, totaling 4.55 billion yuan.
In the first half of this year, Jianghuai Automobile made a profit of 301 million yuan, but the government subsidy included in the current profit and loss exceeded 150 million yuan.
The business is not focused enough, and in recent years, it has begun to retreat the marginal business.
In order to achieve the performance target, JAC is also constantly repaying marginal assets, including selling import and export companies and so on. In October, 2023, JAC sold its 70% stake in Jiangqi Import and Export Co., Ltd., which is responsible for JAC’s wine import business.
Jianghuai Automobile, which has retired its marginal business and concentrated on the car-making business, has made full preparations for Jianghuai Zunjie. Under the pressure of performance, Zunjie has also become a "life-saving straw" for Jianghuai.
JAC hopes to build high-end brands by relying on Huawei.
Jianghuai Automobile said that the related technology of intelligent network connection is the current development trend of the automobile industry, which promotes the domestic automobile brands to gradually develop towards high-end, and the new high-end intelligent electric platform will launch a series of models to meet the market demand.
Jianghuai also hopes to further bind with Huawei. People close to JAC said that the company is considering taking a stake in Shenzhen Yinwang Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd. ("Yinwang").
Regarding the current valuation, Xu Zhijun, Huawei’s rotating chairman, said that the valuation of 115 billion yuan corresponds to the price discussed a year ago, and now the valuation has exceeded 115 billion yuan. If Jianghuai doesn’t buy shares, the price will rise.
The success of the world was due to special circumstances at that time, and both Cyrus and Huawei were in danger. Is success reproducible?
At first, Huawei executives had a wait-and-see attitude towards what Huawei could achieve. After M9 became popular, their attitude changed fundamentally. The industry tries to find the general law of success in the world, especially in M9.
An analysis of a start-up car company believes that the success of the industry has a lot to do with the mentality of both parties. At that time, Cyrus was in danger and was fully open to Huawei. On the other hand, Yu Chengdong urgently needs to set up a new business model to save the sanctioned terminal business and channels. At that time, the brand of Wenjie still belonged to Huawei, and he devoted himself to realizing the dream of building a car.
The problem of multi-brand operation will continue to test Yu Chengdong. There was a clear distinction between different brands. With the change of market competition, products are bound to intersect. Zhijie is about to launch an extended-range model in 2025, and the extended-range model may also have an extended-range product plan.
The first model of Zunjie brand is still in the development stage, and it has been confirmed that both pure electric and extended range models will be launched at the same time when they are released.
Short comments:
In fact, there are not many unique cheats to make a good car, and all the reasons are understood, but there is a huge gap between thinking and doing, which depends on the ability of the product team and the mentality and execution of the top management. The product team needs to accurately predict the core competitiveness of a vehicle at the definition and development stage, and maintain these competitiveness within one year after the product goes on the market.
Huawei has a lot of system process support in product research and development. "Products developed according to the Huawei system cannot be said to be 100% successful, but the probability of failure will be greatly reduced, that is, they will not go in the wrong direction.
Previously, Jianghuai Automobile has won a lot of attention in the capital market by virtue of the name of Huawei, but there are still variables whether the products can be recognized in the future to seize the high-end pure electricity market.
For JAC, if you want to copy the myth of Cyrus, you have to verify it slowly.
4. Tesla’s sales in the third quarter resumed growth, but there is still great pressure on its performance throughout the year. Robotaxi may reach a valuation of 2 trillion US dollars.
The delivery volume in the fourth quarter of 2024 needs to reach a record 515,000 vehicles, and the total delivery volume for the whole year can be flat year-on-year. The conference only released two self-driving models, and did not see the trend of Model 2, which was not recognized by the market.
On October 2nd, Tesla released data. In the third quarter, Tesla produced 469,796 vehicles and delivered 462,890 vehicles. The delivery volume increased by 6.4% year-on-year.
This is the first time Tesla has achieved a year-on-year increase in quarterly delivery since 2024. In the first quarter and the second quarter, Tesla’s delivery volume decreased by 8.5% and 4.8% respectively. Tesla’s delivery in the third quarter was basically in line with analysts’ expectations, but at the close of October 2, Tesla’s share price still fell 3.49% to $249.02 per share.
Tesla’s delivery in the third quarter has improved significantly compared with the first half of the year, but there are still big obstacles to maintain the growth of sales throughout the year.
At 10:00 am on October 11th, Tesla held the "Robotaxi Day" activity, and the long-awaited new driverless taxi "Cybercab" was born.
RoboVan, a driverless bus, can carry up to 20 people and still has no steering wheel and pedals.
Tesla named Robotaxi "Cybercab" without steering wheel, pedals and rearview mirror.
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In the fourth quarter, it will sell 515,000 vehicles, which will be the same as last year’s total sales.
In 2023, Tesla delivered 1,808,600 vehicles. In the first three quarters of 2024, Tesla delivered 1,294,000 vehicles. This means that Tesla’s delivery in the fourth quarter of 2024 needs to reach a record 515,000 vehicles, and the total annual delivery can be the same as that in 2023.
Tesla relies on only two cars and faces increasing competition.
The market competition environment facing Tesla is not relaxed. Tesla’s Model S on sale are Model 3, Model Y, Model S, Model X and Cybertruck. Model 3 and Model Y have always been the absolute main force of Tesla sales. Taking the situation in the third quarter of 2024 as an example, the sales of Model 3 and Model Y accounted for 95%, while the sales of the other three models accounted for only 5%.
Model 3 was released in 2016, and a new version was just released in 2023. Model Y was released in 2019, and it has been five years since then, and it has not been changed. Tesla CEO Musk has always announced that Model Y has not yet launched a new version of the plan.
The other three models, such as Model X, have higher prices, and the sales volume has not improved significantly. Tesla did not announce the specific sales volume of the electric pickup truck Cybertruck, which was once expected.
Tesla tried to boost sales by cutting prices and other measures at the expense of profits.
In 2024, Tesla successively adopted incentives such as price reduction, providing low-interest loans, lower-priced lease agreements and free charging to boost sales, which also significantly reduced the company’s profit performance. Tesla’s profit margin before interest and tax in the second quarter of 2024 was 14.4%, down 4.3 percentage points year on year.
The recovery in the third quarter was mainly contributed by the China market.
In April, 2024, the government of China encouraged the trade-in of automobiles and provided corresponding financial subsidies. On July 25th, the old-for-new policy was increased again, and the subsidy standard was doubled. At the same time, the central finance increased the subsidy amount significantly, and the policy role gradually appeared in the third quarter.
Tesla did not announce the specific sales volume in China market. China is the most competitive market for new energy vehicles. Most of China’s new energy vehicle companies recorded sales in September. The ideal monthly sales volume reached 53,079 vehicles, while the monthly sales volume of Weilai and Tucki in the same period was 21,181 vehicles and 21,352 vehicles respectively. BYD’s monthly sales continued to climb, reaching 419,426 vehicles in September.
Many new forces in China released new cars and besieged Tesla.
China car companies have also launched many models that are similar to Tesla’s sales as Model Y. In September alone, a number of new cars, such as Extreme K7X, Zhijie R7 and Aouita 07, were launched.
The hope for further growth of Tesla’s sales lies in the new platform model to be launched in 2025, which is priced lower than Model 3 and Model Y..
Prospect and forecast of Tesla Robotaxi business
Tesla Robotaxi business is operated by its own vehicle+some authorized vehicles, and it can realize all-round coverage of car owners and non-car owners through APP calling, and at the same time play the role of product promotion; Give full play to the technical advantages of its own full-stack self-research and realize closed-loop accelerated data accumulation.
Customer unit price: technological progress brings unmanned driving, while increasing operation time and reducing no-load rate, improving efficiency; Cost reduction and efficiency improvement support the decline of single-trip customer unit price. Referring to players such as Uber/LYFT, the average distance of the converted single car is 7.5 miles based on the unit mile income of the online car. Neutral forecast: the average price of a single trip will drop from about $15 to $7.5.
Order volume: Compared with Uber, the current leader in the North American network car market, it has about 2.5 billion orders in a single quarter; Tesla attracts users by lowering the average travel price. In the medium and long term, the order level is expected to surpass the original shared travel market leader.
Profitability: According to estimates, Tesla achieved cost reduction through unmanned operation, with higher annual and one-mile operating profit. Tesla’s self-operated Robotaxi has an average order income of $7.5, a net profit of about $5 and a net interest rate of about 60%. Under the neutral expectation, we believe that the long-term market share of Tesla Robotaxi business in the US market (after 2030) is expected to reach about 25%, and the corresponding revenue scale will exceed 161.5 billion US dollars, and the net profit center will be converted to nearly 100 billion US dollars.
RobotaxiBusiness can be valued for Tesla.increase$2 trillion
Tesla Robotaxi business valuation: Tesla builds an ecological barrier with its own full-stack self-developed intelligent driving series software and hardware. Robotaxi provides users with car service while continuously accumulating data, supporting algorithm iteration, building a positive cycle and deepening the moat.
Therefore, soochow securities thinks that in the final case, we can refer to the US stock company Apple to build a profound barrier in the field of smart devices with the technical strength of full-stack software and hardware self-research, and give Tesla Robotaxi business a target PE valuation of 20 times, corresponding to a market value of nearly $2 trillion.
Short comments:
For this conference, some people think that this is Tesla’s most important milestone node after the release of Model 3 in 2016. The official poster subtitle is also labeled with the words "going down in history", which was originally postponed from August 8 to today, but the content of the whole conference is still very small. The only serious new things are two driverless models, CyberCab and RoboVan.
There was no "Tesla network car platform" that the market was looking forward to, or some trends of Model 2. At the end of the press conference, the stock price of Tesla fell by 2% before the market, and investors did not seem to buy it.
5. The National Day auto market is hot: orders from more than 8 brands exceeded 10,000 units, and BYD exceeded 160,000 units.
Government subsidies+car enterprise discounts to create a national day car market boom.
Judging from the order volume announced by major car companies at present, the weekly order volume of many brands has reached a historical record. BYD’s 7-day order volume exceeds 160,000 units, far ahead, and the orders/large quantities of brands such as Ideal, Jiejie, Zero Run, Deep Blue, Tucki, Extreme Krypton and Tengshi all exceed 10,000 units.
BYD orders 160,000 yuan, far ahead.
Some car bloggers broke the news. On the 7th day of the National Day, BYD ordered more than 160,000 units, which was far ahead, and its Tengshi car exceeded 10,000 units.
The ideal set exceeded 20,000 sets, and the boundary crossing and zero running exceeded 17,000 sets.
According to Sun Shaojun, a car blogger, the number of new orders exceeded 20,000 during the ideal National Day. In September, LI delivered another record high of 53,709 units, ranking first among the new forces. With the continuous boom of orders in early October, Ideal is expected to achieve another success in October, and its delivery volume is expected to exceed 55,000 units.
The total number of HarmonyOS Zhixing’s 7-day holiday exceeded 28,600, including 9,600 in the wisdom circle R7, 7,800 in the inquiry circle M9 and 9,000 in the inquiry circle M7. As can be seen from the large quantity, the large quantity of the intellectual community R7 has surpassed that of the single model in the intellectual community. As the R7 is gradually recognized by consumers, it is expected that the intellectual community will slowly get out of the trough.
With its main forces such as C16 and C10, the zero-run car will definitely exceed 17,000 units during the National Day, which is not only equal to the world, but also close to the ideal. Since August, the delivery of zero-run has exceeded 30,000 units for two consecutive months, ranking firmly in the first echelon of new forces. Based on the big performance of the National Day holiday, the delivery volume of zero-run in October is expected to exceed 30,000 units again.
Orders from Tucki, Deep Blue and Krypton all exceeded 10,000 units.
Except for Ideal, Boundaries and Zero Run, the orders of Tucki, Deep Blue and Krypton all exceeded 10,000 units.
During the National Day, the number of dark blue cars was 14,465, and its popularity was outstanding. In the past September, the delivery volume of Deep Blue cars reached 22,709 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.74%, a record high. Deep blue’s performance in 7 days almost caught up with the delivery in one month.
During the National Day of Xpeng Motors, the number of new orders exceeded 16,000, with Tucki M03 and G6 as the main models. With the help of M03, after a lapse of nine months, Tucki’s sales in September once again exceeded 20,000 units, reaching 21,352 units, a record high. With the continuous release of M03 production capacity, it is expected that the sales volume in Tucki will exceed 30,000 units in October.
During the National Day, the total number of Krypton 7X, which was launched in September, has exceeded 20,000, and the delivery of Krypton 7X in October is expected to exceed 10,000. In September, the delivery volume of krypton was 21,333 units, up 18.4% from the previous month. If more than 10,000 krypton 7X units are delivered, it is expected to set another sales record in October.
Xiaomi locked 6,000 units and sprinted 20,000 units in October.
In addition to the above brands’ orders/large quantities exceeding 10,000 units, Xiaomi, Lingke, Extreme Fox, Aouita and other brands also achieved good order results during the National Day.
During the National Day of Xiaomi SU7, the number of orders locked exceeded 6,000. Lei Jun previously said that after September, Xiaomi Automobile added more than 4,000 new locks every week. At present, the delivery cycle of Xiaomi SU7 has been scheduled after February next year, which means that the delivery cycle is more than five months. In October, Xiaomi Automobile will sprint the monthly delivery target of 20,000 units. Previously, Xiaomi Automobile has delivered more than 10,000 units for four consecutive months.
Polar Fox, during the National Day, achieved 5,252 orders, including 2,172 Alfa T5 and 1,873 Alfa S5.
During the National Day holiday, the number of large orders for LECK 07 EM-P and 08 EM-P vehicles exceeded 8,000, which indicates the strong performance of LECK brand in the new energy vehicle market.
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Since September, Sichuan, Shandong, Shanghai, Anhui and other places have introduced or updated policies and measures to support automobile replacement and renewal, and have continuously increased the subsidy for car purchase, which has greatly stimulated the national day car purchase boom.
In addition to government subsidies, companies such as Zero Run, Wenjie, Weilai, Tucki, Lantu, Link, and SAIC Volkswagen all offer limited-time preferential activities. For example, at present, the international community can enjoy 20,000 yuan subsidy and 12,000 yuan interior and exterior decoration concessions. In addition, from September 24th to October 8th, 2024, consumers who order HarmonyOS Zhixing family cars during this period will enjoy a charging and discharging set worth 1,800 yuan after delivery.
Generally speaking, the government’s car subsidies and the promotion rights of car companies will work together to provide strong support for the quality of the "Silver Ten" automobile market.
6. Stellantis and Volkswagen lowered their annual performance expectations because of the competitive pressure from China car companies.
Europe’s two major head car companies have lowered their performance, and Volkswagen has already lowered its performance for the second time this year.
The overseas expansion of China car companies has already had an impact on multinational car companies.
BYD replaced MG as the best-selling China electric vehicle company in Europe.
On September 30th, Stellantis Group released information, and Stellantis Group lowered its performance forecast for 2024, in which the operating profit rate was lowered from the original double digits to 5.5% to 7%, and the free cash flow would also turn from positive to negative, with a gap of 5 billion to 10 billion euros.
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Stellantis automobile group
It is formed by the merger of Peugeot Citroen and Fiat Chrysler, and has more than 10 automobile brands. In 2023, Stellantis Group sold 6.17 million vehicles worldwide, with an operating income of 189.5 billion euros, a net profit of 18.6 billion euros and an operating profit margin of 12.5%.
The downward adjustment of performance expectations is mainly affected by the adjustment of US business.
Stellantis Group said that Stellantis is gradually reducing the inventory of dealers in North America. According to the original plan, by the first quarter of 2025, the total inventory of dealers will fall below 330,000 vehicles.
Stellantis has advanced the target schedule to the end of 2024. To this end, Stellantis will reduce production by 200,000 vehicles and provide incentives for existing models to promote sales.
The pressure from China car companies is also one of the reasons for the downward adjustment of profits.
Stellantis also said that the company’s business in other parts of the world is also less than expected, and the participation of China enterprises has intensified the competition. These are also the reasons why Stellantis lowered his performance expectations.
Volkswagen also lowered its performance forecast for the second time this year.
On September 27th, the target of automobile sales in 2024 was lowered to 9 million vehicles. In 2023, audi ag sold 9.24 million vehicles, and it was planned that the sales in 2024 would increase by 3% year-on-year.
Audi ag also lowered its sales revenue to 320 billion euros, compared with 322.3 billion euros in 2023; Reduce the operating profit margin to 5.6%, which was previously expected to be 6.5% to 7%.
This is the second time that audi ag lowered its performance forecast during the year. On July 9th, audi ag lowered its operating profit margin forecast from the initial 7.5% to 6.5% to 7%.
The market expects that the profit rate will drop significantly in 2024.
Under the pressure of China car companies, Volkswagen started layoffs and launched a cost-saving plan.
On September 2, Volkswagen announced that it might have to close its German factory. On September 10th, audi ag announced that it planned to cancel several employment guarantee agreements. The group originally promised not to lay off employees in Germany until 2029.
On September 25th, audi ag held the first round of negotiations with the trade union, and rejected the trade union’s demands for salary increase and no layoffs. Arne Meiswinkel, chief negotiator of Volkswagen, said that audi ag must reduce its costs in order to survive and compete.
Audi ag’s manufacturing cost is high, the pace of electrification transformation is slow, and the competition from China is increasingly fierce. audi ag must take action.
The overseas expansion of China car companies has had an impact on multinational car companies.
According to the data of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from 2021 to 2023, China exported 2.015 million cars, 3.111 million cars and 4.91 million cars respectively. In 2023, China surpassed Japan and became the world’s largest automobile exporter. In the first eight months of 2024, China exported 3.773 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 28.3%.
BYD replaced MG, a subsidiary of SAIC, and became the best-selling China electric vehicle company in Europe.
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In recent years, the electrification process of China’s automobile industry has been rapid, and the joint ventures of multinational automobile companies such as Stellantis and audi ag in China have been impacted. China car companies are still actively exploring overseas markets and competing with them in the world. However, the expansion of automobile enterprises in China has caused many trade disputes, and the countervailing investigation initiated by the European Commission on electric vehicles in China has the greatest impact. It is inevitable to encounter trade friction in the early stage of going to sea.
7. The EU voted to pass additional tariffs on electric vehicles in China, and the containment has just begun.
China car companies are still profitable under countervailing duties, which is only the primary means for the European Commission to show toughness.
The EU’s containment of China’s electric vehicles is not limited to this tariff, and there may be restrictions on China’s technology, policies or regulations.
On October 4th, in the final decisive vote of EU member states on the countervailing duty on China’s electric vehicle imports, there was no overwhelming negative vote. The European Commission issued a statement saying that the proposal was passed.
The European Commission statement did not disclose the specific voting results. A number of media reported that among EU member states, 10 countries voted for tariff increase, 5 countries voted against it and 12 countries abstained.
According to the voting results, there are huge differences in the strategic and technological interests of electric vehicles in the EU, especially in France and Germany, the former tends to be protectionist and the latter relies heavily on free trade.
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China is still trying to negotiate whether there is an alternative.
In a statement, the European Commission said that it is continuing its efforts to negotiate with China to find a solution to replace the tariff increase, which must fully meet the requirements of the WTO and be sufficient to solve the subsidy problem pointed out by the European Commission’s investigation. Alternatives should also be enforceable and monitorable.
After the tariff was announced, the sales of China electric vehicles in Europe continued to decline.
According to data from Dataforce Research Company, in August, China car companies encountered resistance to the export of electric vehicles to Europe, and the number of registered vehicles decreased by 48% year-on-year, the lowest point in 18 months. This is partly due to the uncertainty caused by the temporary tariff imposed by the European Union on electric vehicles in China, and the impact of the cancellation of subsidies for electric vehicles in Germany and other countries.
BMW strongly opposes additional tariffs.
On October 6th, BMW issued a statement that the EU’s practice of imposing additional tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles is totally unworkable. Doing so will not only fail to enhance the competitiveness of European automakers, but may also harm those companies that are actively doing business on a global scale.
Since November 2020, BMW Group has taken China as its production base and exported electric vehicles to the European market. The first model is pure electric vehicle ix3. MINI, a sub-brand of BMW Group, also plans to produce in China and export its products to overseas markets.
Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz also clearly expressed their opposition because of the interests of China.
Volkswagen recently publicly stated, "We insist that it is wrong to impose countervailing duties, which cannot enhance the competitiveness of the European automobile industry. We call on the European Commission and the Government of China to continue the current negotiations in a constructive manner and seek a political solution. The common goal is to prevent the implementation of any form of countervailing duties and avoid trade conflicts. "
Mercedes-Benz Group also produces electric vehicles in China and exports them to overseas markets. At the end of 2019, Mercedes-Benz Group and Geely Automobile set up a joint venture company, Zhi Motor, with both parties holding 50/50 shares, focusing on electric smart models. In September, 2022, the first domestic electric smart was delivered in China market. Since March, 2023, this product has been delivered to European market. In the whole year of 2023, the total sales volume of Chinese-made smart was close to 70,000, and the overseas market digested nearly 40%. It is not clear for the time being the proportion of its sales volume in the European market.
Germans are worried about being retaliated by China, and now the list of retaliation is only pork.
Their car factories in Europe export cars to China, and their car factories in China export cars to the European Union. The China market is an important source of profits, and the transformation of electric vehicles will rely more on investment in China.
If China takes tit-for-tat retaliatory measures, Germany fears that it will deal a heavy blow to its automobile industry and further worsen the depressed economy.
At present, the list of revenge prepared by China is only brandy, dairy products and pork products.
Germany’s influence in the EU has weakened.
Germany’s "isolation" also shows the decline of the EU’s largest economy in the right to speak, and the decline of the German automobile industry in the right to speak. I am afraid that voting against it is also a gesture greater than the result.
Imposing tariffs on China’s electric vehicle imports is itself a gesture greater than the result.
The European Commission took this opportunity to express a strong stance, but whether it can achieve the effect is another matter.
Unless the tariff reaches more than 45%, BYD will still make a profit.
According to the research and analysis of Rongding Consulting in April this year, in theory, in order to stop BYD, the additional tariff must be raised to 45% to 50%. The European Commission’s tariff plan for BYD is 17%, and with the existing tariffs totaling 27%, BYD still has room for profit.
Even if high import tariffs completely squeeze the profit margin, in view of the slowdown of domestic demand and the pressure of domestic competition, BYD will still choose to export to the EU, the world’s second largest electric market, and even exchange losses for market share, not to mention the brand has a lot of room for price adjustment in dealing with tariffs. In other words, BYD’s March into Europe is unstoppable.
On the contrary, European car companies such as Germany have a greater impact on tariffs.
If the additional tariff is set at 15%, the business models of western automobile brands such as BMW and Tesla produced in China will bear the brunt, while China’s electric vehicle models still have a lot of profit space, and it is still attractive to export to Europe.
In fact, European and American manufacturers, not China brands, export most electric vehicles from China to the EU. In addition to Tesla’s lowest tariff, European Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW have gained an average of 21.3%, much higher than 9% for Tesla.
The EU’s containment of electric vehicles in China is by no means limited to this tariff, technology, policy or regulations.
In view of the general effect of countervailing duty in curbing electric vehicles in China, countervailing duty is only the primary means for the European Commission to show its toughness. If Ursula von der Leyen’s actions against China enterprises can be continuous, countervailing duties will not be the last resort for the EU to block electric vehicles in China.
The United States, an ally, raised the tariff from 25% to 100%, much higher than the EU tariff, and the coverage of the United States far exceeded that of electric vehicles. In contrast, the EU’s move is already a lightweight version.
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The United States, an ally of the European Union, has launched new measures to curb China’s electric vehicles in addition to tariffs. The United States Department of Commerce proposed to ban networked cars and self-driving cars on American roads from using software and hardware developed by China on the grounds of national security. Many people in the market are worried that the EU will follow suit. What is certain is that even if the EU takes action in the field, it is unlikely to completely copy the American practice. Like the increase in tariffs, it is far lower than that of the United States. It does not necessarily stem from the political will of one party, but the EU is a collection of different interests, and its decision-making mode determines its way of doing things. (Wen car home Wu Peizhe)
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